Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Francisco Liriano

Posted by

1/25/10

Q. Bottom line: what's the Dr's R/X?

A. Subjectively speaking, I hope the lad does not come here. But objectively speaking, he's an interesting gamble, almost a Sheets-level gamble.

Q. The internet consensus is that Liriano is underrated, with a FIP much better than his ERA, and is a good #3 starter. Pretty solid starting pitcher find, no?

A. Pretty solid starting pitcher find, no.

"Solid" is the one thing that Liriano isn't.

It is painful to watch this kid pitch. His fastball sits 88 with no life whatsoever, and he does absolutely nothing but nibble with it, hoping for called strikes.

Here's a video example: 8 K's on Aug 13 vs KC ... he throws the fastball like a 38-year-old innings eater, never daring to come into the strike zone, just hoping batters will whale away at a pitch that's too far away from them for their batheads to reach.

Liriano's slider is an even sadder sight. Watch the video above, or this one against the Yankees. Check pitches #4 to #6 on the Yankee video (after the pathetic 87 mph fastballs on #1-3) and tell me you have ever seen any ML pitcher throw a slider with less movement than that.

That is, quite literally, high-school movement, and it was the same way all year long.

Q. Was he better in April, when he was fresh?

A. Just a little. Not much at all. He occasionally hit 92-93 in April. Occasionally.

Q. Was he better in September, when they moved him to the pen?

A. He was worse in the pen. In terms of life on the ball. Of course, he was gassed for the year.

Q. So how in the world does this guy fan 8 men per ballgame?

A. The good news is that Liriano has that super-deceptive motion. His arm corkscrews behind his ear like a pig's tail, then it appears out of nowhere, and WHOOOM, the ball's obviously halfway to the plate before they pick it up.

The fact that Liriano can fan 7-8 men a game, with such low-minors stuff on the ball, is a testimony to his "80" plus-plus-plus deception.

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But don't get the idea that his 5.80 ERA last year was simply bad luck, code cracked, drive home safely everybody. When Liriano misses fastball over the plate, it is a batting-practice pitch.

Deception or no deception, Liriano's fastball was smashed for a -1.99 runs value over the entire 2009 season. As Dave Allen pointed out, even when Liriano was 95 mph, his fastball run value was disappointing, and now that he's got no mustard at all, the FB is an invitation to run him through with a bat-katana.

This guy was 26 going on 46.

He's always pitched off his slider, in Aaron Sele fashion almost, and now it's Sele-squared for Liriano.

Q. So the mechanics help him out with deception, but rip the arm up?

A. Yes, which probably explains why he's taking so long to get back from TJ. Hard for your arm to heal if you're re-stressing it again with every pitch.

Part 2

Comments

Doc I would think that his

Doc I would think that his mechanics have as much to do with his velocity swings as his arm not being able to do it anymore. He is VERY similar to Santana whom I've watched quite a few times the past couple of years and who also sees some fluctuation in fb velocity. Ben Sheets gamble at the front of a rotation? Certainly not, though I would move some parts to see if he could get tweaked back into form. Again, I believe that his slider is the key. When you see it getting in on RH hitters consistently, you will know the kid's back.

On the velo fluctuation

You mean what bro'... that his stroke is inconsistent? or...
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When you opine that he's not a Sheets gamble, do you mean that you believe he's going to be back without much risk, or that he's not going to be as good as that if his arm bounces back...

Yeah, I didn't say that very well.

My point was that in no way would I acquire him for high dollars or prospects to fill a role at the front of my rotation ala Sheets. My thought was that we are in a pretty good spot with our front 2 and have some room to gamble on a guy in the back of the rotation.
As to his velocity concerns.. yes, I think that his mechanics are holding him back a bit. With what I see, the moving parts and such limits his ability to consistently use his lower body to drive towards the plate. In essence, he's an arm thrower though by appearance he lunges somewhat. Of course there are risks with smoothing action out too much, batters being comfortable, seeing the ball too well etc.
When we lose Lee after this year, it would be nice to have a legitimate candidate for his spot in the rotation for 2011 eliminating the need to gut the system or bankroll on someone else. All that said, to me Lopez is too steep without another part coming back from the Twins.

His velocity is low 90s not

His velocity is low 90s not high 80s and reportedly better this winter. You can't post one of the highest SWS% in baseball without great stuff.
In Liriano's case I do think its just bad luck in '09 since he didn't have those problems in '08 and his stuff is far from hittable.

Would agree

With that short-arm, corkscrew delivery, it's kind of like the lower body power is lost in the tranny somewhere...
As we all know, that doesn't mean that Liriano can't be great. 2006 (and the Santana comp) illustrate just how good he can be.
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I'm still not clear, after your last paragraph, whether you think Liriano is a viable candidate to take the 2 spot behind Felix :- )

Again confused Taronator

When you say his velo is low 90's... how much vid did you watch, or games in '09?
I do see that Fangraphs has him at 91.7 but this must be one of their wonky little glitches. You might as well say that French and Fister are 91.7. :- ) This guy routinely clocks 87 and 88. And he is loathe to get any more of the plate than the very edge of the black.
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Anyway, whether Liriano throws 88 or 92, hitters fight to get to the plate against it. He's -1.99 last year with the FB, meaning that his ERA is 6.25 - 6.50 when throwing the heater.
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There's a semantic debate here. Liriano's "stuff" is terrible flying through the air, but he does have tremendous deception, so is that "great stuff"?
If Luis Tiant or Orlando Hernandez or Hideo Nomo twisted around four times, did a cartwheel, threw the ball between their legs and an 88 fastball went by the hitter, is that "great stuff"? :- ) I guess it depends on your semantics...
Same thing with a submariner. The guy might throw 87, but the angle is weird and he strikes out 1 per inning. Great stuff? ::shrug::
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I do know that I'd hesitate to call it great stuff when his ERA is 5.80 :- ) It's not like he's Brandon Morrow trying to figure the game out.

Mistakes happen when other

Mistakes happen when other pitches or two-seams get mixed into the data. You don't see guys luck into a lows 90s average fastball.
I just wouldn't call for a sky high BABIP or HR/FB from here on out. Its not a Carlos Silva or HoRam sitaution. I think the '08-09 Liriano is a solid league-average pitcher and that there is a good amount of upside beyond that. Hes also an EXCELLENT match for Safeco (he nukes LHPs and has had trouble vs RHs the last two years).
Liriano was FOURTH in all of MLB last year in SwS% (with reportedly even more velocity returning this winter). The other guys in the top 15 include Harden, Vasquez, Lincecum, Verlander, Hamels, Dempster, Sabathia, Santana, Lester, Felix, Billingsley, De La Rosa, and Jon Sanchez. Of that group Liriano and Sanchez are the only two who aren't excellent SPs. Liriano ranked 4th among that group.