Edwin Jackson has one plus pitch. Not two. One. His fastball. His slider is cute but not overpowering...it has late movement but it's SMALL late movement and its only effective if he is spotting his fastball perfectly. Which he doesn't normally and he did in the first half of 2009. Notice very carefully, Doc, that Jackson's K rate dropped in the second half too...it wasn't just the walk rate climbing or the HR luck returning to normal (and yes...the low HR rate was LUCK in 1H 2009 as seen by the microscopic HR/Fly he was running...you know I don't buy into HR/Fly theory fully but when it's 5% and your career norm is 12%...something is wrong). The K rate dropped because hitters started making contact on his slider because they didn't have to defend against his fastball as carefully.
Jackson is a good pitcher...a 4 ERA #2 for someone. But I'm not buying that he's a staff ace.
=== Case Studies Dept. ===
Who or what is Edwin Jackson, and what do you expect from him? Who and what he is, that isn't hard to grasp.
Picture Brandon Morrow having his absolutely dream season in 2010, making the All-Star team, etc., then wearing down a bit in August and being good-but-not great.
That was Edwin Jackson exactly.
He's Brandon Morrow, if and after Morrow had his ultimate breakthrough. It's a little shop o' horrors for AL batters - give Jackson a taste and before you know it, the guys look like plant food to him...
=== Dr's Prognosis Dept. ===
Edwin Jackson is not a finished pitcher. You are not trading for Roy Halladay or John Lackey there.
Don't worry about his volatility vis-a-vis John Lackey. Edwin Jackson is a gamble compared to Lackey. Relax about it: Jackson hasn't mastered his craft the way that the Sabathias of the game have. That's fine.
Jackson isn't a guaranteed 17 wins, but then again, he's not going to cost you a Roy Halladay ransom in trade value, and he's not going to cost you a Roy Halladay $125M contract.
Jackson could have an up year or a down year in 2010. That's the main, and only difference, between him and the best pitchers in the game, a bit of volatility.
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=== Odds With the House On This One ===
But Jackson is a Morrow-class talent who has cleanly and decisively hurdled the bar that Brandon Morrow may or may not ever hurdle. What would Brandon Morrow be worth to you next winter, if he put it together in 2010 to that degree?
The decisive factor to me here, is that Jackson is a two-pitch pitcher. That makes him an extremely attractive bet.
I mean, anybody can throw two pitches, sure. But very few can wheel out the 97 fastball and +2.00 R/100 slider that makes the two-pitch game work.
Jackson's game has few moving parts. For that reason I'm willing to back him.
He has a very good chance of returning to 1H 2009 form, when he comes back with a fresh arm ... and he has a very good chance of pitching even better than that (by improving his FB command, and/or general pitchability).
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=== Pharm Salesman Dept. ===
So Jackson is what Morrow hopes to be, next winter or the winter after ... both in (1) productivity -- and in (2) salary.
From Detroit's point-of-view in a Jackson trade, they're regressing in time by dealing Jackson for Morrow -- but they're also regressing in payroll. That is the essence of a salary dump. That's what you hope to do: get somebody just as talented, but cheaper, and unproven.
If Morrow were as good as Jackson, making $1M, then the Tigers couldn't swap straight up.
In concept, the Jackson-Morrow deal is a fair one as is. The Tigers will want sweetener with Morrow, but don't underestimate the fact that they're already getting the benefit of underpaying Morrow in 2010.
Morrow isn't that good, you say? Then the Tigers won't zero in on him at all as the key to a Jackson deal. Either they see him as a 95-mph potential star, or they don't. If they do, the haggling should be relatively minor.
.........
I'd be thrilled to see Morrow-plus for Jackson, because Jackson IS what we hope Morrow will be.
The gravy: Lackey's salary then also gets deployed elsewhere. You're sacrificing the security of Lackey's guaranteed* ace performance for additional help above-and-beyond the #2 starter you bring in.
What do you like better? Jackson and, say, Granderson or Johnson/Dunn, or Lackey and a minor add?
Nice to be in the fight, isn't it?
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I guess I'm missing where anyone is saying that Jackson is an ace. His upside is there but he's still young and not finished. Maybe he's AJ Burnett instead of Nolan Ryan. I'll take it. If he's on the M's staff, he is immediately the second best starter on the team and, as Doc points out, the money can then be reallocated where it is really needed - to the offense.
If you want to get a solid #2 to back Felix AND upgrade the offense, this is how it's going to have to happen. You either have to find a young bat or a young starter to trade for. Young players have risk and upside - it's going to be as true for a 25 year old bat as it is for a 25 year old starter. At least one that the team can afford in a trade.
The interesting thing to me is the buzz seems to indicate that they are looking at someone from the Lackey level, or possibly Jackson in a trade, or Washburn as a fallback, and bringing back Bedard on the proverbial "incentive-laden deal"
Doc, you likin' a fresh-armed Bedard as your No. 3 in your playoff rotation?
That says to me he's thinking staff ace...not average-solid #2 pitcher and innings eater.
And Jackson isn't THAT young...he's about to hit arbitration which means he's about to get really expensive which is why the Tigers want to cash him in for prospects.
And I'll believe he's as effective as AJ Burnett when I see a power breaking ball like Burnett's come out of his hand.
Morrow+Kelley for Jackson is a no-brainer.
How many SPs have Jackson's upside and are as close to breaking out as he is? There aren't a ton.
Is Morrow EVER going to throw 180 IPs in a season, much less 200? I think this is the offseason you trade him, and Jackson would be a pretty great return IMO.
that Jackson immediately steps in to a second position in the rotation. I would have to add that it may become necessary to divide he and Felix with a different look as their velocities are similar. The offense is key and that's the end of it. My feeling is that the M's are looking to make a pretty big splash there this off season (one which might aggravate the neo-defense only crowd) yet the staff needs a consistent backup to Felix. Bedard still fits my eye but I imagine the M's have had enough of him.
I recall arguing for the Tigers about the Jackson trade over at Fangraphs, so much for projecting AAA players eh? I like his stuff, don't like his command, but would be excited to give him a shot for a year or 2. This is CA (billy), I guess I haven't figured out how to sign in here yet. Tons of new content, Doc, and one thing hasn't changed: Matt is VERY SERIOUS about baseball. (just joking) Good stuff guys!
"I'd be thrilled to see Morrow-plus for Jackson, because Jackson IS what we hope Morrow will be."
I'd have to agree it's like the old saying goes, "A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the brush". Morrow is far from polished at this point.