=== Strike One, Strike Two, Strike Three Dept. ===

If Jaka had a sloppy BB rate -- let's say he walked 3.5 or 4.0 men a game to go with the rest of his profile -- I wouldn't give him another thought.

Similarly, if Jaka were an 89 mph pitch-mixer who wasn't a battler, if he nibbled in Gene Nelson style, I wouldn't give him another thought.

Tangentially, if Jaka's K rate were soft -- let's say he were fanning 5+ men a game or fewer, like Roy Corcoran -- I'd fire off a "fuhgeddaboudit" POTD faster than Erik Bedard scurrying away from a microphone.

But Jaka IS showing good precision, and very good toughness, and his K rates are nice and solid.  I haven't wandered off yet. There are any number of ways that Jaka could offend me.  I haven't seen any of them.  Roy Corcoran?  Ask me some other time.  But Jakabouskas is showing real major league potential.

You could as easily project a Chris Bosio career for him as you could project anything else.

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=== Change Speed Dept. ===

As Sullivan pointed out, Jakubauskas didn't get a lot of swinging strikes.  But he did strike out more than his share of batters -- almost 8 a game -- so the flip side of that, is he had to have been "freezing" batters one after another.

This would also explain the anemic AVG (.242) and BABIP (.290) that PCL hitters put up against Jaka -- a really good change-speed game keeps hitters defensive.

As well, Jaka has a 1.5 groundball ratio, and has never had a season in which he gave up many homers at all.

Marc W points out that Jaka decimates lefties, and that suggests strongly that Jaka has an UNUSUALLY effective changeup (which Franklin absolutely did not).  How many RHP's have reverse platoon splits, due to their changeups?  Jaka's may be plus-plus.

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=== We're Axin' a Lot, Yeah ===

I agree with Cameron's judgment, pardon me while I fall out of my chair, that it is very DIFFICULT for a 30/30/30 pitcher to become an impact pitcher.  He has to develop VERY good command, or a VERY good changeup, or develop some other "signature" weapon to accent the 30/30/30.

USSM's essential reaction to Jaka seems to have been that a pitcher with his particular arsenal has a tough road ahead of him.  The fact is, I agree with that.

There are several routes to stardom for a 30-30-30 guy.  None of them are easy.

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=== Worth a Flier?  Sure ===

Jakubauskas is already a surprisingly effective pitcher, and his career arc is headed up, not flat.  If he hones his command in the zone, OR if he hones the deception of his change-speed game, OR if his changeup is already Radke-good, you can't rule out his becoming an impact pitcher.

The point is:  Jaka is worth following in 2009.  On the short list.  Let's see where he goes from here -- not see where he goes from here in the Bryan LaHair sense, but see where he goes from here in the Michael Saunders sense.

.........................

What's Jaka's role on THIS team?

After Morrow's charming little announcement, ANY starting pitcher with a 100 ERA+ would have a role on this team.   I'd much rather see an enigma like Jakubauskas get time, than a known problem like three of last year's starters were.

And I got news for youse guys.  A reliever who doesn't get his head bashed in, is liable to look pretty blinkin' good to you too, about a month from now.

;- ),

Dr D