Soon to be a bronze statue outside the park
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=== INPUT ===
Physique: Furbush has a classic country-beanpole pitcher's body, long limbs, excellent strength to weight ratio, effortless movements in quasi-Lincecum style. However, he lacks grace, with a typical tall lefthander's ungainliness.
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Backstroke: He has slow, smooth tempo and good balance as he rocks back. His head stays neatly over his plant foot, he is light on his feet, and there are no complaints about his setup.
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To accelerate the ball: He dips the plant knee as though he is going to drop-and-drive, and he certainly has the strength/weight ratio to do so.
However, he uses strength rather than leverage to accelerate the ball; his CG acceleration is mediocre. He splays his front foot and both arms, and he has an exaggerated "inverted W" as his throwing elbow comes farrrrr above his shoulder and behind his back.
All of his limbs ride a somewhat herky-jerky pattern and his acceleration is powerful.
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Throughstroke: Furbush gets outstanding explosion through the release point, with his back foot coming high and pinwheeling around far towards 3B. Sometimes he jerks his head a few inches with the max-effort finish that he applies.
He comes through sidearm, with his own version of a "high front side" (mitt obscuring the release point, and his release is obviously hard to pick up.
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Deceleration: His nose-to-leather "finish" is impressive. He leans over, his lanky left arm clears with no problems, and his ferocious concentration "through the finish" is visible from the cheaps.
(After we wrote this, we found that first pic, under "Comps." Next up: Eric Wedge calls Furbush in, tells him "C'mon it's just a game")
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=== OUTPUT ===
So this is a classic reliever's approach, with a "grunting," all-out, muscle-not-leverage effort that lends itself best to short bursts.
The delivery appears very high-stress to me, and if I were going to pick 20% of a starting pitcher population ready to sustain an injury, Furbush would be among them. Of course, this is nothing more than guesswork.
In this specific case, Taro's "Inverted W" principle does visually look worrisome, for what that's worth. Well, to me it's "worrisome" - to Taro it will be the image that finally sends him screaming out into the night.
Orel Hershiser once characterized max-effort as "running down the mound" and you'll never find a pitcher who looks more like he's running down the mound, sticking his face into the strike zone.
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The muscle-not-leverage approach also costs command, leading to both walks and mistakes for HR's.
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Furbush has good tempo ... the pace and attitude between pitches ... but lousy rhythm, the ability to groove in a graceful throwing motion, repeat it, and achieve hair-fine command on a particular day.
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The worst implication of this semi-chaotic, muscle-based delivery is that it is hard to see how his command will ever improve.
His command is good enough as is, but any forward progress for Furbush is hard to project.
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All that said, having a reliever's motion does not mean that a pitcher should not be starting. Randy Johnson had a reliever's motion; Nolan Ryan did.
Furbush's motion could mean a thumb on the scale against his command, and his durability, but there are starting pitchers who walk more than 2 men per game.
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My $0.02,
Jeff
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