Q. Wait, you would have drafted this dude right behind Strasburg and Ackley?
A. The good news is, he does show an overpowering fastball. He does throw three different breaking pitches, all of which can embarrass good hitters.
And whether he's young or not, he is definitely early in his development, which amounts to the same thing.
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Q. Overpowering fastball?
A. In the vids available, Chapman is being clocked at 91-94 but even WBC Japanese hitters are having lots of trouble catching up to it.
It's a Morrow-type fastball, tight-spin, excellent life. The ball jumps out of his hand.
Chapman "gets on top" of the fastball beautifully, in Chuck Finley, Mark Mulder style, and the FB just explodes on hitters even at 93 mph.
Chuck Finley is the guy he reminds me of. Plus some arm -- Chuck, though an All-Star caliber starter, didn't have the arm this kid has. But both had overhand LH deliveries, got on top of the ball, threw at a gorgeous angle, gave hitters nightmares.
Even when you beat Chuck, it was never any fun.
...............
And remember, 91-94 is what we saw on two or three videos. The scouts say, touches 100, so evidently they've seen more velo than the videos show.
Give Chapman a legit 95-98 fastball, as they claim he has, and you can see a Randy Johnson-type upside. Off in the distance, we mean. Through the fog. Faintly.
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Q. He takes flak for his secondary pitches.
A. Odd, because on the vids his breaking pitches are very exciting.
He throws an 81-83 slurve with real good arm action: he throws it overhand but it shapes just like George Sherrill's. Even the WBC hitters had all kinds of difficulty reading it.
He throws a change-curve exactly 70-71 mph (!) that will remind you of David Wells', RRS', or Luke French's on a good day. Imagine RRS' change-curve whipsawed against a 97 fastball?!
Aroldis is the anti-RRS: rather than throwing thirty 90 pitches, thirty 80 pitches and thirty 70 pitches, Chapman will hit every spot in-between. You have no idea how long the pitch is going to be into the batter's box.
Chapman is no finished product by any means, but a little spit-and-polish and you can see Randy Johnson, add a David Wells change curve. LOL.
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Q. So when do the Mariners sign him?
A. Chapman is eligible to be signed by an FA team, today, Tuesday. He's not getting the offers he wants.
His agent calls him, quote, a once in 40, 50 years prospect. ML scouts call him a great prospect. The difference between the two means, draft day arrived, and Aroldis didn't get drafted.
I'd be glad to take Chapman #3, #4, #5 in a June draft. He's an Andrew Miller, David Price comp, maybe a bit more exciting in terms of upside, probably a better chance of a bust, too.
That's praise, not criticism.
But his agent is sitting over there "being patient" that somebody will blow $100M like on DiceK. I'd be shocked.
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Q. Precedents and predictions?
A. The Yankees beat the Red Sox out for Jose Contreras with a 4/$32m contract. A team like the Yankees has $30M to blow on a roll of the dice.
It's harder to imagine the Mariners taking that kind of risk. But hey, they know the price of admission, and they're over there, right?
Eyes slideways,
Dr D
Three parts - and you wait until paragraph Omega to mention Contreras? Shame on you, Doc. :)
Incredible stuff, questionable control, Cuban, greedy
But hey, a 4.61 ERA and a 2.00 K/BB ratio is gonna beat what most pitching prospects will ever produce. First rounder? Maybe. But, I wouldn't slate him #3. Too much baggage.
Buried the lead. That goes high on the Dr. D scouting report. Buries the lead :- )
Let's see, I'm trying to remember. Was Contreras' stuff thought as highly of, pre-signing, as Chapman's is now?
Remember how giddy Gillick was about possibly signing Contreras? Contreras had actually mowed down some MLB batters (the Blue Jays, I believe) in some sort of exhibition game pre-defection. there were some who thought he'd come in and be an instant #1 starter, #2 at the worst.
Of course Chapman comes in to the picture when upside means more than actual results... or even realistic projected results.
I'm with Sandy on this one. Not only is he a young lefty flamethrower whose arm could go 'ping' at any moment, the makeup issues have me wrinkling my nose.
Contreras was in his mid 30s when he came over. Less raw velocity, RH, much more polish.
Both are Cuban defects, but you're taking about two different people in two different situations. Contreras was MLB ready and quickly entering the decline-phase of his career. Chapman is a prospect.
But Aroldis' upside shouldn't be minimized. It's very realistic to figure a 1/3 chance that he'll be one of the AL's* ten best pitchers in fairly short order.
Was advertised as *31* when he came over. Actually, as 30 when he defected. So when GM's were drooling over him, they figured there were still 5-7 years of prime domination in him.
Here's a Baseball America article from the time.
I stand corrected, it was against the Orioles that he pitched, and it was 8 innings of 2-hit ball with 10 K's.
And as the article states, he was dominant in international competition.
If anything, I think Contreras was more highly sought-after than Chapman is right now. I was very hopeful that the M's would sign him, and I believe Gillick offered more money than the Yankees. But Contreras wanted to wear pinstripes.
Whereas I was thinking the M's should break the bank to get Contreras, I don't think the M's should go to crazy trying to get Chapman. Ya, I'll probably be wrong about that too. : )
And came across this great article about Contreras, almost 2 years after his defection.
It gives you a sense of just how emotionally trying and culturally difficult it is to do what he did.
Chapman, now... I think his TO tude actually helps him. Well, that and his youth. He's young, he's dumb, and full of that stuff that 20YO kids have in their head that makes them think they're invincible. He has the next 10 years to develop the kind of meaningful adult relationships that Contreras had when he defected.
Chapman's upside is unlimited. He could end up being the best pitcher in baseball (or a washout on the other end).
How many lefty SPs in the Majors even average 94mph? C.C. Sabathia averaged 94.1mph. Kershaw and Lester were in the 93.5-94mph range. And thats it. Chapman is in rare territory.
You don't want to undersell the upside. I'm just saying that Aroldis is a very different case from Contreras who was far more polished at the time, had less raw stuff, and was in his mid-30s. Personality-wise they don't seem very similar either.
Ya, and I mean its not like Contreras was a disaster. He was great for a handful of starts in '03, awful at Yankee stadium in '04 (perhaps the wrong environment for a guy like him), then in '05 and '06 was a 4-WARish pitcher in that bandbox in Chicago until his velocity faded and he turned into a slightly above-average SP in his decline years.
Contreras was a pretty decent #2 pitcher for a couple years. The '04 season is warping our impression of him.. Contreras earned his deal. He just produced after he was traded from NY.
Young? Full of potential? Plays crazy baseball? Cuban?
I'll pass. Sounds too much like Yuni to me. Even though they play different positions, the attitude and life perspective might lead to the same road. I remember reading an article saying that even though Cubans play sick baseball, they slack off when they come to America? I can't exactly remember the details, but that is the gist of it.
I don't really get a Betancourt-type vibe from Chapman. Hes comes off as arrogant/cocky and apparently he wants to be the greatest pitcher in the world. Its possible he slacks off as soon as he makes some money, but I get the sense that he has more pride in his game than Betancourt.
... if that's the right read on him ... will trump the tendency for Cubans to relax once they get here.
As many have noted, T.O.'s self-image actually helps him, from the standpoint of his own performance. He might not make his teams better, but he personally performs well based on the way he sees himself.
Right here.
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