=== Two Thumbs Way Down, Dept. ===

Players I like considerably less than the M's like them:

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Casey Kotchman.  Just wrote the articles detailing why.

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Ian Snell.  Fastball is simply too easy to see.  Rough road ahead even in the NL; odds-against in AL are necessarily longer.

Will cheerfully concede that many insiders see 3-4 strikeout pitches, and the All-Star of a few years back.  IFF they're wrong and SSI is right, I believe the point that is evading them, is the hittability of Snell's fastball -- he throws it from father away than other pitchers do, among other problemos with it.

The run value on the heater has been negative, in every single season individually.  That's rare.

It is sad, though, to see somebody's character, and competitiveness, questioned, when there is in fact an invisible factor working against them.  I did this to Felix last year, questioned his slow start when it had nothing to do with his pitching.  Lo Siento, amig-O.

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David Aardsma.  SSI forsees that the 85% fastball mix, that led to the magically-improved control ... along with last year's somewhat-lucky HR/F* rate ... are going to converge against him in 2010.

Hope not.  The dude does have a plus-plus fastball; it clocks 96 and is effectively 98-99 because of his awkward motion and the location he tends to use.

Anything can happen in a given 60 innings.  Maybe the smoke monster will continue to save us for next year's supper.

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Sean White.  Do yourself a favor; don't look up his K/BB. 

Throws a moving 93-mph fastball and that's about it.  Yet, came to camp as a given, right behind the Big Three we had at the time.

The M's are always saying terrific things about White.  He'll have a big league career, I suppose, but the M's have quite a few guys behind him... Nick Hill, to start with.

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Jack Hannahan.  Still can't get over his taking AB's from Carp at first base.  Well, as with White, we're just quibbling about the last spots on the roster.  It's not worth much fuss.

If he's an org guy, utility player, that's perfectly legit, to pick the guy you want.

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The back of the rotation in the abstract / the 2010 DER.  The M's are weirdly lassez-faire about such a dubious 3-4-5 rotation ... whoops!  a 2-3-4-5 rotation.

Salk on 710-AM says that he texted Washburn on Sunday, and Wash told him the M's had not contacted him a single time since the Cliff Lee trade.

It's not that I think Washburn is great; it's that the gambles are proliferating as you try to draw at the deck with RRS, Snell, Fister, and Vargas...

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As you know, there are two versions of Ryan Rowland-Smith:  the very good, 92 mph version, and the useless, 86-mph version.

The M's seem to feel like they can presume they'll get the good one.  I'd much rather have RRS as a #5 starter candidate or, even more ideally, swing man.  Then I could use him when he had the juice in his arm.

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In 2001, the Mariners had a Defensive Efficiency Rating that "was eerily better than the rest of the league."  In 2002, with all the same players,* the magic DER disappeared for no particular reason.

I like the M's defense, but we can't assume that it will bail out 10 pitchers (other than Felix) again...

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Optimist that SSI is, it will presume that the M's "What, me worry?" attitude is provoked by secret knowlege that beginning about May 10, the M's will be running Felix, Lee, and Bedard in the same rotation.

Cheers,

Dr D