Sympathy for your Shoulder. Sounds like a song by Elton John but about 2am each night I want to scream. I just got back from a coaching conference in Denver. It was interesting that pro scouts are watching carefully now for kids from southern states. The last few years have seen the beginning of kids getting into high levels that grew up with one sport/one position rather than multi-sport, etc. The injury factors will be curious to watch in years ahead as suddenly northern climates might actually be an advantage in today's overdone world. As you said, history, genetics, training (flexibilty with strength), form, pitches. One report, hard to figure with instant publicity, from a top baseball state, had one of the top prospects for HS ball throw over 160 pitches one day and repeat that two days later.
A few years ago a lot of kids were almost boastful that they had already received their TJ surgery, like they had lost their virginity. Like a loose life, ultimately catches up with most.
Excellent thoughts on Pineda. Tendons can be frayed a bit at a time like Uncle Jed whittling wood. Form is an important part but even more factors to go into the equation today. Even if you are the Big Red Machine, in the end, you still need several capable arms to take the mound.
Q. If a pitcher had a higher-stress motion, would that mean he was going to get hurt?
A. No. You put a 350-lb. barbell on my shoulders, at 48, and it would probably injure my back.
You put a 450-lb. barbell on Chris Spencer's shoulders, and that's a higher-stress situation in the absolute ... but Spencer isn't going to get hurt. He's stronger and more resilient than I am.
Merely saying that Tuffy Tufferson has a higher-stress movement doesn't mean that Tuffy will get hurt. We're multiplying two things: [Stress load x Personal resilience]. (And time, reps, comes in as factor #3.)
Right?
Chris Spencer can handle a 450-lb. squat with ease. I can't. .... Felix Hernandez can handle a 96-mph fastball motion with ease. Mark Prior can't.
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However stressful a motion is, it's one of many factors. Height, weight, the genetics of the ligaments etc., the fastball velocity, the RH vs LH, etc etc.
Anybody can get hurt, but there's 100 years of baseball intuition behind the "big hoss" throwing hard. Walter Johnson, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Felix Hernandez. Draw your own conclusions as to where Michael Pineda fits in.
Again: pitching is unnatural. I expected Felix to probably get hurt by now. But Michael Pineda vs. Ian Snell? I'll take Swamp-Thing.
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Of course, it's hard for us to be sure of what we're seeing, anyway. If a Mariners' prospect came up and we saw him in Don Sutton's position, at foot plant, I'm sure we'd call that a poor throwing motion.
There have been six or seven RHP's with 5,000 IP since WWII, and probably half of them had "high elbows at foot plant."
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Q. How do these factors break down on Pineda?
A. Let's say that SSI were playing an Ultra league, and had to bet the farm on .... Aroldis Chapman, Jeremy Hellickson, Mauricio Robles, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda...
Here are the injury factors, IN ORDER, as SSI would apply them to Pineda.
- Velocity and K's - big plus. Most important separator. K's = health.
- Body Shape - big plus. Huge, strong, with a loose arm. Pineda is Chris Spencer lifting weights (throwing fastballs), rather than Deion Branch lifting weights.
- Mechanics - a minus for me. Much more max-effort, less leveraged, than I'd like. (As with the young Clemens.)
- Shape of Pitches - a big plus.
- History - about average. Some elbow tenderness. Par for the course.
- Workload - who knows. Pineda's been used lightly. Don't know if that's good. For the M's, it doesn't seem to have been. I guess it's a plus that he hasn't been thrashed.
- Age and Handedness - a minus. Any 22-year-old RHP figures to get hurt. You'd rather have a 32-year-old lefty than a 22-year-old righty.
Overall? Certainly it isn't a guy I trade because he's a catastrophe waiting to happen. As pitching prospects go, Michael Pineda is the one guy you hope to produce every 5-10 years.
Which still doesn't make him a guarantee. How scared are you about Pineda's future? = how scared you are about elite young pitchers generally. Good inkblot test.
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Q. Dr's Prognosis?
A. I don't remember seeing anybody, with Pineda's max-effort motion, going 5,000 innings. If Pineda wants to pitch for 15-20 years, I would think his mechanics would have to evolve.
That said, over the next 5 years, I'll take Pineda along with anybody else in his peer group.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
Interesting thought of the one sport generation: Reports are that girls now from years of spiking the volleyball are having unprecedented amount of shoulder problems. Now those are high elbows!
Taro, if you read this, good points. Interesting debate and thought. To find the perfect formula!
Interesting thought of the one sport generation: Reports are that girls now from years of spiking the volleyball are having unprecedented amount of shoulder problems. Now those are high elbows!
The shoulder problemos of elite volleyball players seem well-documented, and (for me) pretty well close the case on high elbows at point of load -- that it is not desirable, that is.
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Again, it's one thing to say that a motion is hard on an athlete, and another thing to say a motion is TOO hard on an athlete.
Many volleyball players are healthy, right?
It's a compelling image: volleyball players "throwing" with elbows *as high as possible* :- ) and with shock at the top, yet only X% get injured... the O'Leary type amigos (excellent as they are) leave the impression that 100% of high-elbow athletes will get injured...
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Still and all, there is a % that gets injured...
This one is not a clear-cut case IMHO...
What is your judgment on Pineda's motion... and how would you weight his mechanics as a risk factor, compared to the other factors (height, weight etc)...
Let me think on that one further...Plug the brain in. You have me searching for comparisons. Always so much to learn.
You want flying elbows? Check out Don Drysdale. I loved watching him and Koufax as a kid:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSWRrLl3cBM&feature=related
Could this be a case of a lower elbow that requires a bit of double jointedness? That particular movement could be considered a risk but I think we would all love to have Drysdale alive in an M's uniform. And he consistently pitched 250+ innings a year in winning his 209 games.
Oh yes, Pineda! LOL! Later!
You can have shoulder problems just fixing too many lights. The high elbow might be a larger issue than being a bit late at footstrike. Its when you are REALLY late that it seems to become a bigger issue.
Thanks for input on volleyball players. It hadn't realized that, but that would make a lot of sense.
Drysdale has the inverted L, but actually isn't that late at footstrike. You see his arm catches up in the slow motion. Hes a tiny bit late, but negligible. Hes one of those guys who can trick you if you just look at a picture of him right before footstrike (since it looks like an inverted L).
His elbow also isn't elevated. Its right about even with his shoulder line or slightly below.
He also isn't a max effort pitcher, which can be a big part of it as well.
Sutton while we're at it.. You can see its not actually an inverted W because his elbow is not above shoulder line and his arm just about to reach it set point right before footstrike meaning his timing likely isn't perfect, but probably not too bad either.
Lincecum is actually slightly late as well, but excellent at everything else so I don't think it really matters. You see guys getting away with being a little late, just not extremely late.
I don't think Pineda's timing is as bad as Morrow's was after looking at the slow-mo, but I think the elevated elbow is a really big concern.
time and I can say it can thrash your shoulder (still have a hard time sleeping with my arm over the the head) like few other sports. The problem isn't having the elbow high, its hitting the ball too far back in the swing. Even now if I hit the ball out in front there isn't a tinge of pain. Hit the ball over my head and I can guarantee to scream through the night.
I always respect your judgment more but here is a quick shot. I hope for a long career for Pineda...with the M’s. Per Taro, the right trade notwithstanding (i.e. Montero). But someone does have to pitch. Taro, I think you said a lot of good things to warn about potential dangers. I do not want to lessen what was said. I fully agree that the inverted L’s and W’s put arms into positions not meant to be. I honestly do get how guys like an Aaron Crow come up today. The instruction with instant videos should prevent such. I think that coaches and players (their parents especially) are expedient wanting instant/short term rather than long term success.
Pineda’s arm does come up a little high in the pre-delivery. I picture the arm like the hammer on a gun. It comes in with perfect precision and the force ignites the bullet. The hammer was design to prevent extra movement…so should arms in the pitching motion be. That hammer arm does not fly high. So that is a legitimate complaint about Pineda. But, I also know that the M’s have coaches that know all this far more than me. Potentially this is how his arm feels best, is natural, etc. The inverted arm often is associated with shoulder/rotator cuff issues. Pineda’s arm history is elbow related isn’t it? Could this relief pressure on the elbow? Something he is comfortable with? I would be curious if you could get coaches from minor leagues to ever comment on players. I am sure that this kid has been surrounded with coaches checking all this out.
The second frame from the #2 article has a high elbow and it looks like he is about to lower the arm to skip a rock on water. But several frames later his position looks solid. If I could try something on him it would be to simply try lowering his lead arm just a touch as you will note it is fairly high (that is consistent with the best pitchers). The exact and opposite reflection is often true. Lower one and the other follows. I really love how Pineda, for a big man, drives his legs through to home plate. If he has directional consistency with his strength, he will drive to home plate and take a lot of pressure off of the arm.
All the comments are great to follow. Makes it fun waiting to see what happens!
Could this be a new joke? How many inverted arms does it take to change a light bulb?
Taro, those are great points. I honestly think that the foot strike leads to the strong body rotation with the arm following. In this way, much pressure is taken off the arm. Do you remember a guy like Keith Foulke? He seemed to use his arm too much to throw with. Sometimes those guys can have the right slot, angle, etc but do more damage.
Can you figure with the video instruction to look at slomo, etc, how do people end up throwing so many ways?
That makes total sense. You hit it early and your muscles don't have the leverage as hitting with right timing??
Jeff, with what Merk said, watch a pitcher like Maddux and how far he releases the ball towards home. That not only gives visual mph to each pitch and late break but, I would think, healthier!
I have shoulder sympathy for you Merk. Middle age set the rebuild engine light on.
Inverted Ws by themselves aren't said to be bad, they are only harmful if they lead to timing issues or elevated elbows.
I agree that mechanics are way too complicated to sum up in a few parts.. Even so, I think major flaws are easier to pick up than a full analysis of someone's delivery.
Well put Taro. I agree that you can pick out the flaws. And like anything, those flaws might be caused by or be the cause of other flaws.
You know all about this. Teams passed on Lincecum being scared of potential arm injury yet they went after others who had previous injury and such delivery flaws as you have talked about. Lots of inconsistencies. But that does all make baseball great fun doesn't it?
I figure that you have read Chris O'Leary? If so, do you like him?
I read mostly O'Leary and Boddy, although both guys don't post anymore.
I like O'Leary's approach of finding patterns between healthy pitchers and unhealthy pitchers. Boddy is of a similar line of thought, but also studies biomechanics.
Given that there has been so much guess-work in the field, I think its a logical approach.
Thanks Taro. I have read several good articles by O'Leary but never much by Boddy. I will have to pay more attention to him. What you said makes total sense. Physics cannot be erased from pitching. Bodies are different but guess work is frustrating. The ball goes where it is sent...and fun to watch and continue to learn.
No, you're right that its much more complex issue.. Boddy doesn't have a site anymore, but he still posts on his facebook page if you're intersted:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Driveline-Mechanics/21898704545