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If Pineda pitches the rest of the season anywhere like this, he should be a shoe-in for rookie of the year. We haven't seen one of those since Ichiro.
Pineda vs the Royals, 4.17.11 - the LHB's
Q. So does that put "paid" to the discussion?
A. For you it does. Being the creme' de la creme' of the 'net rat grotto and all.
If you've now watched Michael Pineda throw ~300 pitches and you don't know whether he should be in the minor or major leagues, Dr. D can't help you. Euthanasia has its supporters.
The discussion was feebleminded to begin with, and is now boring Dr. D. One more treatment regimen on the Pineda vs. LHB delusion, and we're Triaging this patient. Down to the morgue, where it belongs.
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Q. This was a real LHB lineup that Pineda just hog-slaughtered?
A. The Royals' numbers coming into Sunday:
- #1 in the AL in AVG
- #1 in the AL in OBP
- #1 in the AL in R
- 116 OPS+
- 6x lefthand hitters in the lineup
- Beat Felix the day before, 7-0
The Royals were smoking hot: they had 6x lefty hitters along with (1) RH Francoeur slugging .684 the past week, (2) RH Butler their best hitter, and (3) even RH Escobar SS hitting .300 the last week.
They were swinging the bats about as well as an AL team swings it, as confirmed by their easy wins over Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez.
We said before the game that Michael Pineda would make Felix look like a dead man. He did exactly that.
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Q. How many hits by lefties?
A. One.
They were 1-for-12 with four strikeouts, the hit being a broken-bat bloop by Gordon on a 98 mph jam pitch. That's the picture above.
This following 2-for-10 by the Blue Jays, last time. Like we said, the whole Pineda vs LHB snarl-up was an affectation from one blog that didn't care for the idea of Pineda being in the majors so soon.
What is remarkable is the cyber-resonance this achieved, especially in view of the fact that SSI explained in excruciating detail why the idea was off track. And it did it humbly, too.
Kudos to the guy for having such amazing influence. He said that Pineda was too weak vs LHB to be in the majors, and just about everybody said "oh, okay." Never ceases to amaze me. Even Roger Jongewaard doesn't deserve that kind of blind loyalty, and he's a modern-day prophet.
Three games in, Pineda has splattered three tough lineups, and everybody still says, "Whatever you say, baba sheba. Any idea when he'll get that change going?" Now that's what I call authority. Whooo.
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Q. Would Pineda need to change speeds to get lefties out?
A. He would not, no.
Nolan Ryan has stated that he threw 100.00% fastballs his first several years in the big leagues -- and fanned over 9 men per game. ... Then, he threw an overhand 84-88 drop pitch, just like Pineda, throwing two pitches until exactly age 38, when he added a changeup.
Bartolo Colon, Curt Schilling and many others have thrown essentially 100% fastballs for long stretches of time. Hey, Felix Hernandez has worked through lineups throwing practically all fastballs; you've seen it.
Granted, Pineda would only run a 110'ish ERA+ using only fastballs.
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Q. Why doesn't a 97 mph pitcher have to change speeds?
A. Look. Were you here when Randy Johnson was losing games, back in 1989-1992?
When a guy is 98, there's one way they hit him. (1) Ignore the offspeed (fight it off if it's a strike). (2) LOOK FOR THE HEATER IN A VERY SMALL AREA.
Randy Johnson used to be wild with the curve, and was a one-pitch guy WHO CENTERED THE FASTBALL.
They'd let him walk a few guys, watch a 6-inch square and when the ball was in it, they'd square it up.
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Michael Pineda throws 97-99 and it is not in the center of the plate! You can't hit that.
But Pineda does have a wipeout slider, creating redundant awesomeness, and STILL people want to know when he starts doing the things that David Pauley needs to do. Somebody blow my head off with a 12-gauge.
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Q. Supposing I just am always going to want to have a changeup. Can he develop it in the majors?
A. Of COURRRRRSE! The change will take care of itself. Like it did for CC Sabathia, about year three. Like Clemens got his splitfinger going, about 50 wins in. :headdesk: Anybody ever watch a HOF'er hit the bigs before?
And he's throwing the change 10% now, anyway. His 60-30-10 pitch distribution is identical to CC Sabathia's.
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Can you tell how charmed I am by this whole discussion? Just enjoy winning the Lotto, can'cha. :- ) Here's your righty Big Unit, and one blog told you that he's fatally flawed, and you listen to that guy rather than Zduriencik.
As a Foo Fighter told Kurt Cobain, yer missin' a great game. Or was that Dr. D's wife, referring to his suddenly-manic net ratting.
Hey, man, I've seen plenty 'nuff Batistas, Silvas and Washburns. I'm basking in every Pineda pitch.
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Q. Will Pineda ever get hit by a lefty lineup?
A. Sure. I notice that Felix gets hit sometimes, too.
Supposing that Pineda gave up a 100 OPS+ to LHB's and decimated righties? Analysts would go, "See? tolja", Pineda would finish top-10 in ERA, and Dr. D would wallow in the minor leaguer who doesn't deserve to be here.
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Q. Does Pineda's slider work against LHB's?
A. The results with the "slider" against the Royals' 6-lefty lineup:
- 25 pitches
- 19 strikes
- .... 7 swinging strikes = 28% = three times Felix' level)
- .... 6 called balls of any kind
- 0 base hits
- 3 strikeouts (Getz, Ka'aihue, Escobar)
- 0 walks (all walks occurred on fastballs)
Can I ask you a question?
Pretend that you had not been notified that Michael Pineda lacks an ML slider. Pretend you just watched the games, is all you knew.
Then would you think that Michael Pineda's breaking pitch was good or bad?
Watch the games fer yerself. That's free advice. It's more fun, too.
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Q. And what would I see, if I just watched the games?
A. That the Seattle Mariners appear to have one of the most exciting young 1-2 starter combos since 1970.
Felix is the best pitcher in the game. But he's got a job to do to run with Pineda right now. Watch the Royals series?
BABVA,
Jeff
Comments
2
Minor league lefties OPS'd ~.750 off of Pineda last year, and lefties are OPSing 139 points higher against him than righties are through 3 starts. It's a legitimate concern. 3 good starts doesn't establish that it's not an issue. Especially when only one of those starts was against a lefty-heavy lineup, and two of those lefties - Dyson and Getz - are pretty crappy hitters.
Pineda's looked great, and he has otherworldly potential, but I'd feel a lot better about him if he had a legitimate weapon against lefties.
He's definitely one of the best starters in the organization, and on talent deserves to be in the big leagues. Nobody's questioning that. The only "counterpoint" is that he'd be even better if he could neutralize lefties more, and that the minor leagues might have been a better place for him to work on that skill. We're seeing that play out right now, as he's thrown his change less than 10% of the time and it's gotten pretty bad results (2.5 runs worse than the average change in only 3 starts).
I love watching Pineda, and there's no doubt that on talent he's good enough to succeed in the majors. I do wonder about how wise it is long-term to put him in a position where he may just abandon developing the change into a weapon. The list of ace-level pitchers in the majors who succeed with only 2 pitches is pretty short.
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EVERY young right-handed hard-throwing phenom has problems against lefties. Felix Hernandez had problems with lefties. Josh Beckett had problems with lefties. Dwight Gooden in his sensational rookie campaign...he had problems with lefties too, relatively speaking. If he gives up a .550 OPS to righties...does it matter what his OPS is to lefties? :)
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Any scout would tell you that Pineda has a 97 fastball outside against them, he has a jam pitch against them, he has a ladder pitch against them, and he has a slider against them.
That's the language they speak.
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We're working from different paradigms, JH - you're using stats analysis and want a 'sample' before you evaluate.
My sample size needed to figure out the 1995 Randy Johnson would have been two pitches: one fastball and one slider.
SSI didn't call Pineda because of stats. It called him because it watched Michael Pineda perform. That's why SSI understands Pineda and other blogs do not, as evidenced by the fact that SSI correctly predicted the outcomes to date.
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Yes the list of 2-pitch SP's is a pretty short one; it's only about 30-40% of all HOF'ers. ;- ) Here's a sample just in Pineda's exact RHP [97 x 12-6] template:
Nolan Ryan
Bob Feller
Dwight Gooden
J.R. Richard
Josh Beckett when young
Bert Blyleven (ok, less velo, more crackle)
Joaquin Andujar (he actually did throw a tilted slider)
Kerry Wood (his was tilted too)
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Pineda IS a pitcher to whom David Pauley rules do not apply, because he is 97 mph WITH location. He doesn't need to do what David Pauley does.
No. Results against LHB's are not a legitimate concern. Jack Zduriencik understood exactly why they're not, and correctly promoted him to the AL :- )
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Not the way that Felix Hernandez got hit, in his first few years, he won't.
We're just heading off the argument that will be presented: that any platoon split AT ALL will justify the silly evaluation that Pineda didn't deserve to be in the majors.
Just watch. If Pineda gives up a 280/330/430 statline to lefties, and on the All-Star team, that will be taken as proof that Pineda should have been in the minors.
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6
...but of course context matters. It doesn't at all mean that lefties will consistently crush him, but I can't foresee any situation where he'll have a reverse platoon, or even necessarily an equal one.
If he does develop a change, watch out. But even if he doesn't....watch out.
98 with command along with an offspeed with command doesn't need anything else. The offspeed doesn't even have to be a huge weapon.
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A platoon split doesn't bother me. A repertoire that turns your generic Double-A or Triple-A lefty into a league average hitter agianst him does, because I worry what that means about quality major league lefties (of which he's really only faced one so far, maybe 2-3 depending on your opinions of Moreland and Gordon).
Obviously if lefties only OPS in the mid-.600's against him all year, I'll start singing a different tune. To smile condescendingly and pretend that 3 starts has conclusively proven or disproven anything, though, is absurd.
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I haven't looked at his minor league splits in detail, but would like to inquire as to whether his problems against lefties are jsut 2010 or whether they go back further?
I would also wonder whether his slider was as impressive in 2010 as it is now...because, when I saw him pitch in ST '10, his slider was no where near as polished...and he was throwing 95-96, not 98.
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It was in place long before these 3 starts. :- )
See e.g. my post after Pineda's March 16th ST start.
You continue to handcuff yourself with your own paradigm JH. I'm not talking "3 game sample size." I'm not talking performance analysis!
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All sorts of funny things happen with minor league / college (A+) stats. I remember arguing endlessly with people over Lincecum's 4-6 walks before he hit the majors, how they would go way down upon promotion. Statheads reacted by pooh-pooh'ing it, of course.
Kerry Wood walked 6+ guys in the minors and you simply couldn't talk to statheads about him.
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Not trying to offend, honestly. If you've been reading long, you know I try to be nice.
But anybody who has watched Michael Pineda pitch to five batters, much less five games --- > if they don't know who he is, then they can't "see" baseball.
Sorry if the truth hurts, but one inning would have been all you needed in 1997 with the Big Unit. One inning should be all you need with Michael Pineda.
A lot of guys cannot "see" what a 98 fastball does to a baseball game. The lefties can start their swings 10 seconds early, can screw themselves into the ground on every "slider" and the statheads still don't understand what is occurring in that 60 feet, 6 inches.
There are guys who manage to lose despite throwing 98 mph, but only under specific conditions (which some bloggers wouldn't know a blinkin' thing about). Those conditions most definitely do not apply to Pineda.
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No insult. Just fact. ML scouts can "see" the game within the 60' 6", most blogs cannot, and no ML scout (or hitter) is questioning Michael Pineda at this point.
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10
Comes from non-athlete statheads who believe that ML hitters have nothing to teach them about the 60' 6", if you ask me.
Bautista sees Michael Pineda once and calls him Nolan Ryan, and guess what that means to most bloggers? Absolutely zero, because the blogger understands the game better than Bautista.
Dave Henderson tells us, 20 different times, that with Michael Pineda's fastball, ANY offspeed pitch for a strike is impossible to hit, and what does that mean to Mr. Blogger? Absolutely zero.
At SSI we don't consider the players' opinions irrelevant, so condescending as we may be, we're runnin' a little ahead of the cyber-curve :- )
Give yer the last word JH. :daps:
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11
I few notes I find interesting about Pineda's performance. Pineda has a strikeout rate of 15K/9 in the first inning of his three starts, compared to a rate of 6.06K/9 in all other innings. The hitters are coming up in the first inning looking to do damage, are realizing they are over matched, and using their pepper swing for the rest of the game.
Pineda is not the first pitcher to torch the league his first time through, but if he consistently brings 97 mph located to the perimeter of the zone, he's not going to struggle. Note, 4-seam fastball don't have a large platoon split, unlike Felix's 2-seam fastball.
If you can throw a baseball 100 mph, I promise you can also get a good late break on the ball. A tight break is much harder for soft tossers to achieve. Consistent control of the break, that is a different issue altogether. This is why I'm excited about Pineda. He has a natural gift for commanding the baseball, while sustaining elite velocity. He did it in low A (though prior to elite velocity), he did it for 50 inning in A+ before elbow troubles, he did it in AA, and he's doing it now in the bigs.
It appears he is developing two slurves, one with a smaller break he can through for strikes (fairly consistently so far) and a second one with a larger late break he can use as a strike out pitch out of the zone (like the pitch he used to strike out LH Travis Snider).
While Felix is more fun to watch, his game is more challenging to keep fine tuned because all his pitches move like crazy. This, however, creates a clear game plan for the hitter. Hope to get ahead and then wait for a fastball up where the natural movement of the pitch will drop the pitch into the optimal hitting zone. Pineda looks to have a very straight fastball, but this makes command much easier, so he falls behind less and doesn't have to aim for the heart of the zone, or at least hasn't to date.