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Shouldn't leave out the UConn OF, who has plenty of fans as well (including the gracious host). His opener is at 7:30 Eastern against Purdue, and it appears that you can watch that game on streaming video also.
Opening Day is Today! (for a probable future Mariner -- we just don't know who)
Meaningful baseball starts now!
At noon Pacific time, baseball season starts for the UCLA Bruins vs. San Francisco, and their Opening Day starter is the big righthander Gerrit Cole. No TV, but it appears that free live audio is available from a link at their website.
A bit later, at 4:30 Pacific (6:30 Central), TCU opens against Kansas, and their Opening Day starter is the wiry lefty Matt Purke. That game is live on The Mtn. TV network, and apparently will be streaming live at www.gofrogs.com.
Why care about Cole and Purke? Because after Rice slugger Anthony Rendon, they are considered (going into the season) as the next-best talents in the 2011 draft. So there's a very good chance one of them will come to Seattle with the No. 2 pick.
But isn't No. 2 too high to pick a pitcher? Yes and no.
First off, let's flash back to October: Postseason records of Giants pitchers picked in the first round -- Tim Lincecum (4-1, only loss to Halladay); Matt Cain 2-0; Madison Bumgarner 2-0. That's 8 of their 11 postseason wins picked up by first-round pitchers and, of course, all 4 of their World Series wins.
Does that mean the Giants were very fortunate? Sure. No TJs or blown shoulders in the group. But they weren't afraid to draft pitching high, and it paid off.
Don't the Ms need offense? Oh, boy, do they! But if one assumes Rendon goes to Pittsburgh at No. 1 (and that's pretty much as certain as Strasburg to Washington at No. 1 in 09), then the offensive talent is, in my mind, not worth passing on these two pitchers.
Why so certain about these two? Two things:
They were both first-round picks before, as teenagers (Cole, Yankees, 28th overall; Purke, Rangers, 14th overall), and
They both went to college and lived up to every ounce of the hype.
In other words, these were identified as "special arms" way back when, as high schoolers. As it happened, they both turned down the bonus money and chose college.
Cole took UCLA all the way to the College World Series runner-up spot with an 11-4 record and 11.2 K/9.
Purke only went 13-0 and led the Frogs to their first CWS ever with 142 K and 34 BB.
To me, it's like drafting Nick Franklin after you already knew he'd set slugging records in the Midwest League.
Of course, either one could slide, or others could move up. And there is a true "wild card" that maybe I'll get to soon. But, in terms of high-draft-pick pitching, it seems to me that these two are about as solid as you can get.
Comments
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... but unlike the NFL draft, MLB teams often draft with need as a factor. The need of quality starting pitching is high in the M's system, IMHO.
Cole, unless he implodes, is the guy I want the Mariners to draft.
Lonnie
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Complete game shutout: 9.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K
Can't really ask for more than that. UCLA wins 1-0.
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Cole complete game shutout.
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... about a guy playing in the sunshine of southern California gets drafted and helps the Mariners get back into the post season.
I can't wait for the sequel!
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Per Churchill "Cole was just OK, according to scouts in attendance".
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I'll take 30 of those 11-K, 1-BB, 0-R "just OK" starts per year, please!
Does that mean he didn't have his best stuff, but still dominated? In which case, that's a good thing.
Or does it mean that a better pitcher would have dominated even more? How much more dominant do you want, oh ye Scouts in Attendance?
Anyway, I listened to the end of the game on the webcast and the UCLA announcers (not scouts, but they have seen Cole pitch a lot) said they'd never seen Cole so efficient and that he was almost Maddux-like in his efficiency (faced 29 batters, threw 104 pitches). They did note that he was helped by some excellent defense, but it couldn't have mattered that much, considering USF hardly had any baserunners. FWIW
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Purke: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 56 pitches -- Purke was on a 70-pitch count and they decided to lift him after 4 because they had a big lead and they wanted the freshman coming in to start at the beginning of an inning (so they said).
Rendon: Started all 3 games vs. Stanford (apparently healthy), went 3-for-12, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 xbh
Springer: Started all 3 games vs. Big 10 opposition, went 2-for-12, 2 BB, 3 K, 0 xbh
Matt Barnes, UConn: Took a loss vs. Minnesota but racked up 11 K in just 6 IP
6.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 11 K
Sonny Gray, Vanderbilt: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K, 87 pitches
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Seriously inferior competition + the new bats.
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Grizz is right, the competition wasn't up to snuff, but also, the new bats are gonna change college numbers for sure.
It's my one hope with Rendon, that the new bats make the pitchers look SOOO impressive and mitigates Rendon's numbers enough to make the Pirates draft a pitcher instead.
Now, the bats are still aluminum so the swing bunting and such that goes on in college will remain, but most guys are not gonna be able to go yard nearly as often, and comparing stats with these bats versus pre-2011 numbers is gonna be tough - they aren't gonna match up. Some people are saying it's harder to hit HRs with the aluminum bats now than with wood ones.
Still, I have no complaints about Cole's debut. ;)
~G
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People forget that an umpire's strike zone can be either hitter or pitcher friendly. A big zone really helps a pitcher look dominant and vice versa. There are many factors that come into play that do not ever show up in a box score. The scouts are watching the pitches more than the score. But still a very impressive player.
Good article and thoughts all. Thanks.
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Jon Shields scored a nice article on ESPN.com on the subject as well.
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/7275/college-baseball-has-a-...
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http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith...
Must be insider to get the whole list, but the top 5 is what matters to Ms fans anyway.
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...but we're gonna be on this prospect watch til June, I'm thinkin' so we might as well keep this post rolling. The 2nd pick in the draft is kinda important, and after blowing the 3rd pick and the 5th pick in a couple of drafts I'm not in the mood to go for the trifecta. We really need this pick to be one the franchise can build around.
Anthony Rendon's getting the hang of these new bats. 8 games, .393/.514/.643 with a 2B and 2 HRs, and 7 walks against 2 Ks in 28 ABs. I really need to stop hoping we get this guy...
Cole: 2 games, 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 9 hits, 3 ER, 17K/2BB. Not a bad start to a year at all.
Purke has a blister on his throwing hand so they scrapped his start over the weekend.
Springer's first week was pretty bad. 6 games, .136/.259/.273 with 1 HR, and 4 walks against 7 Ks in 22 ABs.
I am kinda terrified of taking Springer, he of the 70 Ks in 248 ABs against college pitchers (and using a metal bat) in 2010. I'd rather take Bubba Starling, honestly, even though I'd have to wait longer to see him in the bigs.
Rendon, Starling, Purke and Cole still look like the 4 options I'd see us investigating at #2 in the early going. Start sucking, Mr. Rendon. STAT.
~G
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Oh well. Two heads are better than one!
Bubba Starling is fascinating, and I've gathering stuff for a post on him for awhile. Can't see the Ms using the #2 on him (at least not with the other options in this draft), though.
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And your writeup was better than my echo, so I defer to you. ;) I don't know that we would draft the #1 HS hitter over the #1 college pitcher either, but if Springer was considered the #2 college hitter and we insisted on having a hitting prospect with Rendon gone to the Pirates...
Then I'd rather we called Bubba's name.
~G
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Assuming the rumor is accurate (but why wouldn't the guy get himself to a training camp before everyone forgets he was ever somebody?)
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Lefty FB/slider guys who can throw low 90s and touch 95-96 hold a special place in my heart. They're scary to hitters and I like pitchers who make batters nervous. He has his control issues at times (or did in college prior to his masterful junior season) and I don't think Indy League pitching helped him at all. Boras really screwed him over. I'm glad he's with us, though - we have a very RH-skewed pitching roster both in the bigs and the minors, and the lefties we do have don't throw that hard, aside from Robles.
Paxton fills the LH power starter role that a lot of clubs have trouble filling, and would look great next to the righty power of Felix and Pineda.
First he has to learn to command his offerings again, though. That extended sidearm whip he gets on his pitches is fine for his slider but I can understand those who'd rather make him into a Matt Thornton type of reliever in the pen.
I think he'll be a fine starter. I was very impressed with his junior season, and as a kid out of the frozen North they don't get the chance to work on their games with top competition or year-round play. He's not anywhere near polished or tapped out as far as potential, and grew exponentially in college.
He's a far better prospect than some of our first round picks like Aumont, for instance.
In fact, you want to know what the #5 pick for us was like?
Morrow: 96.2 IP, 72 hits, 97K/39BB.
Paxton: 78 IP, 83 hits, 115K/20BB.
Morrow was harder to hit as a junior, but Paxton had far better K and control rates. Paxton shouldn't be walking 4 and 5 guys a game like Morrow (or Paxton's lefty competition, Robles). Once he shakes the rust off, I'm looking forward to having a hard-throwing lefty with good control in the system.
~G
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But I would like the look of Cole, Paxton and Wilhelmsen merging in from the on-ramp sometime in 2012. And Robles, if he's not there already.