NFL QB Hot Sheet

So, just to give you an idea of just how easy it is to humiliate Dr. D in a fantasy football stadium, here's a look at a few of my QB sizzlers & fizzers...

QB:  #1 or #2 on your lineup card?

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=== KURT WARNER ===

#2 on your lineup card.

Warner's numbers have been elite since he won his starting job back, and he throws to an incredible array of targets.  So, no-brainer here.  You want him over the more middle-of-the-pack Cutlers, (Eli) Mannings and Hasselbecks, right?

Wrong.   Warner has completed 16 games only a couple of times in his career, and at age 38, has passed Dr. D's magic-marker line at which an NFL QB becomes a truly old man.

Age 37 is the age at which my hamstrings started snapping, and is the MLB age at which I consider any player to be genuinely defying gravity.  The NFL positions that comp across to MLB aging are, IMHO, QB, WR and OL.  Joe Montana his ownself wasn't much after age 36.

So, Warner (though an admirable human being) is marked BUST on my draft sheet in huge red letters.

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=== MATT HASSELBECK ===

#1 on your lineup card.

Granted, he's not going to throw for the yardage of a Brees or (Peyton) Manning, but he is one year removed from 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns.  It's a magic Dr. D roto principle to ignore the ONE most recent season, and ask, "who was a hero in Y-2 and a zero in Y-1?"  Those Y-1 zeroes suffer from knee-jerk reactions by fickle fans.

I also like the fact that Holmgren's leash comes out of his ear, and I like T.J. Houshmanzadeh and John Carlson.

Granted, the back is a worry, but Hasselbeck will be 34 and will have 2-3 prime years left.  This is local familiarity talkin' :- ) but if Hasselbeck is still there after 10-12 QB's are off the board, I'm grabbing him and congratulating myself on my twin #1 quarterbacks.

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=== TONY ROMO ===

#2 on your lineup card.

This is more my personal bias than anything; objectively speaking he's pretty good value in round 5 or 6.  But I've never cared for Romo's makeup.

And, it says here, most (not all) QB's depend as heavily on their WR's as (say) MLB pitchers do on their defenses.  The subtraction of Terrell Owens will hit Romo as hard as if Ryan Rowland-Smith had to pitch with Bill Hall and Adam Dunn replacing Gutierrez and Saunders.  :- )

Somebody might get a nice year out of Romo, but that somebody won't be me.

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=== MATT RYAN ===

#2 on your lineup card.

He's cool, and has a good pitchers' defense out there in the WR/TE slots, so to speak.  But one of my little fortune-cookie principles says, slow down a minnit about Y2 quarterbacks who started out of college and looked fairly good as rookies.

Ever since Rick Mirer put in a good rookie performance -- and Drew Bledsoe for that matter -- it *seems* like I've seen this out of several young QB's.  My own guess about Mark Sanchez, for example, would be that he'll do "surprisingly well" as a rookie and then, as his coaches start to think of him as not needing coddling any more, have a poor 2nd season.

Could come back to bite me.  But I won't be drafting Matt Ryan in my top 20 QB's.

.............

If you're commenting, how about after you rip up my opines above .... how 'bout YOU give ME a thumbs-up or down on some NFL QB or other.  As you can see, I need the help :- )

Cheers,

Dr. D

Comments

1
Sandy - Raleigh's picture

On Ryan, I agree 100%.  My concern too would be the sophomore slump.  It's been my perception that young QBs who jump in great really fast tend to regress a bit the following season.  The generic NFL learning curve is 3 seasons, (REALLY true of wideouts), but most QBs don't even get to start for a couple of seasons.
I think there is often a tendency to assume young QBs have "got" some things that they haven't really gotten, and that push to take them to a new level is often done before they're actually comfortable with the level they showed initially.  (There are always exceptions, of course).
The danger, of course, is that you might be sitting on the next Peyton.  You want to look for upside in baseball, you scan for age 26.  You want to look for upside in the NFL, look at so-so sophomore's who look to have a solid hold on a starting spot for year 3.

2

comforting to know that my noodlings are in synch with the local South'n football expert's on this one.  :- )
The Falcons your team, Sandy?

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