i really think that these ranking sites have continously and consistently underestimated the M's minor league system. although the past few years the major league team has underperformed, the system was able to churn out quite a number of MLB regulars. felix, choo, putz, thornton, jones, morrow. they are just a few of the good ones. and there are a lot out there playing in the that came out of the system.
seager has the makings of a plus contributor. poythress too. add pineda and ackley there, and you have atleast 4 very very very good prospects coming up and ready to contribute in 2 years. how thin is that for a single year? considering the attrition rate among the minor leaguers, if that is a thin class, then i don't know what a good system is.
System in 20 Words or Less: A couple potential impact players at the top but an overall shallow system where the talent level drops off quickly.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Michael Pineda, RHP
2. Dustin Ackley, 2B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Nick Franklin, SS
4. Guillermo Pimentel, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Taijuan Walker, RHP
6. Mauricio Robles, LHP
7. Dan Cortes, RHP
8. Kyle Seager, 2B
9. Blake Beavan, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Johermyn Chavez, OF
11. Alex Liddi, 3B
Nine More:
12. Ramon Morla, 3B, 13. Maikel Cleto, RHP, 14. Marcus Littlewood, SS
15. Josh Lueke, RHP 16. Greg Halman, OF, 17. Ji-Man Choi, C/1B, 18. James Jones, OF, 19. Carlos Peguero, OF, 20. Jordan Shipers, LHP
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There's a lot of breakdown on the link, as well as some comments I cut for length. I have just have a few words for this, based on some of his descriptions:
"Leuke is inconsistent." In what universe is a guy striking out 94 guys in 63 IP, while walking 15 - FIFTEEN! - "inconsistent?" His ERA was under 2. His WHIP was an even 1.00. He was as consistent a strike-thrower as you could find. Cleto is a better prospect than him? Cleto, who can't find the zone in the Cal League at all with his one pitch? Cortes is a better prospect because he throws a couple MPH harder and walks the universe when he goes bad? THAT's the inconsistent player. Did he even watch Lueke pitch? Maybe "character concerns" keep him low...unlike Cortes, who has public drunkenness and fights under his belt, right?
Pimentel is a kid with promise, sure. I happen to like him. FOURTH best prospect in the "shallow" system? He had a 58:5 K:BB ratio in 184 AZL at-bats. When your batting eye is under .1, can you really be the 4th best prospect in any system?
Kyle Seager is 8th. Wow, this guy must be really high on him! "Perfect world projection: He could be a second-division starter or good utility player who hits for average." So our 8th best prospect dreams of being David Eckstein as his 100th percentile projection?
Mauricio Robles, the 6th best prospect: "Perfect World Projection: Scouts vary wildly on Robles, with some seeing him as a fourth starter with a possibility for more and others as a future eighth-inning reliever." Wait, a 4th starter or a set-up guy? That's his perfect world, the guy who tied Pineda for org strikeouts at the same levels? I guess it really IS a shallow system if that's all we've got.
Also, no Poythress?
I understand this is a hard job, going through every team and lining up players. We ARE short on TOR starters. We have a mess of bullpenners who are making minor leaguers look stupid (many of whom are not on this list because they're still in the low minors), but very few guys who can go 200 innings in the bigs with an ERA under 4. We do still have a lot of athletes and not a ton of baseball players. But I don't think setting up a cadre of relief arms who are smoking the minors right now is the worst way to go about rehabbing the system. Ackley and Franklin are the glamor hitters (since Smoak has graduated) but there are plenty of others with a chance to impress big-time.
I'm interested to see what will be said about us after 2011: "Cole, Paxton and Robles lead a thin system?"
After 2012 if those guys are pros? "Franklin and Chavez power an otherwise unremarkable system?"
If your system graduates Saunders, Moore, Ackley, Smoak (I understand he was a trade), Pineda, Cortes and Lueke in a season-and-change, can you really call it thin? If it STILL has top-100 prospects AFTER that haul like Franklin and Robles, is that still thin?
If you have enough talent to trade for Cliff Lee without missing a beat, how shallow a system are you?
Just found it an odd breakdown, I guess. Mileage may vary. ;)
~G
Comments
i really think that these ranking sites have continously and consistently underestimated the M's minor league system. although the past few years the major league team has underperformed, the system was able to churn out quite a number of MLB regulars. felix, choo, putz, thornton, jones, morrow. they are just a few of the good ones. and there are a lot out there playing in the that came out of the system.
seager has the makings of a plus contributor. poythress too. add pineda and ackley there, and you have atleast 4 very very very good prospects coming up and ready to contribute in 2 years. how thin is that for a single year? considering the attrition rate among the minor leaguers, if that is a thin class, then i don't know what a good system is.
"Leuke is inconsistent." In what universe is a guy striking out 94 guys in 63 IP, while walking 15 - FIFTEEN! - "inconsistent?"
94k in 63 IP: that's a 50:50 coin flip whether the hitters burn him for a batted ball in play. I don't know what's more random than that.
...............
Back when James was about the only guy doing this, one of the first things he said ... a cheerful "If you live in Cleveland, you're going to know more about the Indians than I do." That simple admission has been impossible for everybody [else] since then.
BP and BA would be a lot better off to hire G-Moneyball to do these lists. But, c'est la vie.
...............
What do you think of Pimentel and Walker being so high, G?
I think he saw "2 million dollar bonus baby" and "first round draftpick" and slotted them according to that. How Taijuan Walker ranks higher than the system leader in Ks (Robles) who finished 4th in the Southern League in that stat despite graduating for a month to AAA, the AA Texas pitcher of the year (Beavan), etc is beyond me.
Taijuan Walker was considered an overdraft by some at 43. Keith Law didn't have him in his Top 100, IIRC. He cheerfully signed for slot bonus with nary a peep, way ahead of schedule. 5 of the next 7 guys behind him signed above slot (right behind him was Castellanos who cost 2.7 million ABOVE slot). Walker was not highly regarded on draft day; he was a raw tools pick, an athlete who had never focused on pitching and was still pretty good at it.
He may well BE the 5th best prospect in the system. He might be a TOR arm who's just starting to sprout, but there's absolutely no way to tell at this point. He has nice raw tools. As BA says about him from fall ball pre-draft:
"He fires an explosive 91-94 mph fastball and adds a wicked 85 mph slider. Adding to a hitter’s misery, Walker flashed a nasty 77 mph curveball and experimented with what looked to be a cutter at 87 mph. His stuff can be correctly described as downright unfair."
Which is great, but placing him after a handful of innings in the desert is pure guesswork. I had this argument about Tui with you, Doc - where do you put a draftpick based soley on money paid and exhortations given? You wanted him #1 heading in to 2005 (after Felix, I assume, was no longer going to be available) and I was willing to give him an honorary #10 spot, nothing more. Difference of preference in player rankings.
Based on this list, the author places a lot of faith in tools and potential rather than in performance. Shipers and Littlewood haven't played but make the list. Walker threw 7 innings and gets the 5th spot. Pimentel can't even make contact in the hitter-friendly desert and gets the 4th. Poythress clubs 30+ 2B and HR and leads the world in RBI and doesn't make the list.
I hope Pimentel and Walker are indeed that good. I just don't see how they could be appropriately judged to be so at this point.
~G
Where they list Top 10 Talents 25 and Under. It's a better picture than just the prospects list.
Felix-Smoak-Pineda-Ackley-Franklin. That's a good core right there, and can't quibble with them being the top 5 (in whatever 2-5 order you want).
I'd add (this is unfair to BP, but I'm looking at the big picture): 2011 No. 2 draft pick, who ought to make it a top 6 as soon as he signs. Whoever it is will be someone ahead of the next flight.
Then: Pimentel and Taijuan -- agree with the big potential, but it's really far away. Very hard to rank these kind of players vis-a-vis the others. Like G said, it's guesswork.
Then: Saunders-Robles-Cortes. That's fair. All ought to be solid MLB contributors, but with quite a bit of range of opinion as to how much they'll contribute.
I'd add: Lueke (clearly downgraded due to "makeup questions," as they put it, not the mythical "inconsistency") and Wilhelmsen (whom I probably overrate due to my enthusiasm, but not even a mention? -- in my mind he's on a par with Robles at this point) (and, true, chronologically he's over 25)
Despite the negativity about Seager in the commentary, they actually grade him in the same category with Robles and Cortes, and that's probably fair.
Poythress should be in there, High Desert inflation or not, and maybe Anthony Vasquez -- 1.3 BB/9 in 172 IP as a lefty starter climbing from low-A to AA in one year. Skepticism on Josh Fields? OK. But what about Stephen Pryor and his 14.0 K/9 blowing through Everett and Clinton?
I understand the wait-and-see on James Jones, but they do acknowldge he could climb fast. Julio Morban didn't show much, but he's two years younger than Morla (and, as G points out, Littlewood and Shipers didn't play at all). I get Pimentel being ahead of the other two, but not Morla being way ahead of Morban.
I think maybe the "sharp drop off" comment is a view toward strong (and warranted, up to a point) skepticism toward Halman and Peguero and the like (Liddi?), but also an underrating of several of the others with real potential.
Part of it could be that the Z-crew is assembling guys who can fill MLB roles (potential utility guy Seager, lefty specialist Brian Moran, the host of potential late-inning power arms) who may not light up the prospect sheet.