1
I think Ackley starts somewhere in 2010....which...he wants to play the outfield. YTou could put him at first base but I don't think that's intelligent resource deployment.
... M's 4
=== The Muscle ===
Hit his shortest, and most impressive, home run of the 2009 season.
In the second inning, lefthander Anderson threw his hottest fastball of the night. The ball was:
1. Just under the letters, hard to get on top of even if 90 mph.
2. 96 mph.
3. In on the hands.
4. On a two-strike count.
5. Coming from a LH angle.
Branyan, not loading the way he usually does, snapped the bat around at snake-tongue speed and laser'ed a line drive into the right field bleachers.
370 feet, maybe. And a homer that showed us he has an X (launch quickness) to go with his Y (throughspeed). That has been the whole question about Branyan, whether he could HIT as well as he could PWR. He is certainly not Derek Jeter in terms of plate coverage, but he has shown plenty 'nuff HITting ability for a TTO lefty of his type.
Earlier I'd been worrying about Branyan's ability to handle a letter-high pitch, but he's since put that to bed. A lot of dangerous, fringe LH power guys have trouble with the ball up, such as Brad Wilkerson. Branyan swung under a lot of high FB's in April and May. But it's not an Achilles' Heel for him, and the HR off the high 96 fastball was sweet to watch just in terms of strike zone holes.
Good time to smile about the possibility of having Branyan around for 2010-11 at $5-8M per season.
FWIW, Fangraphs has Branyan at $32M production over the equivalent of 4-5 seasons of playing time.
...............
I didn't see how high the mortar shot was that fell onto the warning track later in the game. Must have been incredible. The first high-fly warning track ball I've seen this year from the Muscle.
.
=== Franklin Gutierrez ===
Scored the game-tying run by messing up Adam Kennedy's fielding of a ground ball.
You see runners step over grounders to hide the ball from fielders, but on this one Franklin did a weird little WR down-and-out into the infield and ran around the ball as if setting a pick for a WR teammate. It looked funky, and it messed Kennedy up huge. And it decided the game.
Let's not even get into the 7-pitch walk, and the SB, that preceded the baserunning miracle.
:: standing O ::
.
=== Michael Saunders ===
Squared around and effortlessly bunted a medium-strength roller at the 2B.
The pitcher, LH and falling off the mound, had zero chance to go over and run it down. The 2B, playing on the edge of the OF grass, had farther to go in to get it than Saunders had to run down the line, practically. Finally the 1B (IIRC) ran over and took the grounder, looked back to 1B for his second baseman, and Saunders beat the 2B to the bag by a preposterous margin.
I believe that's 5 separate times that Saunders has bunted THAT KIND OF BALL for a base hit. He should do it once a series, maybe even once every other game.
The numbers are hazy, but I remember a 1990's STATS baseball scoreboard that showed Omar and Lofton and guys like that bunting 13-for-16 base hits during particular seasons. Certain guys should bunt 50 times a year.
............
Saunders starts in LF in 2010, barring an FA signing. He is a great favorite with the M's, because of his tremendous defense, tremendous instinct for the game and his 5-tool potential. I don't know whether he's going to be a mediocrity or a good ballplayer, but he's a great favorite with me too.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
2
But let's remember that Pedro Alvarez was the 2008 Dustin Ackley, and he's still in AA as we speak... albeit he might not need to be...
San-man's maneuver of 10- or 11-to-make-9 is sounding pretty good...
3
And his team is playing it WAY conservatively with him as is. I am willing to bet his major league contract inspires the Mariners to let Ackley play if he has a good ST and AFL, which I believe he will.
4
I don't think you can really say that Alvarez is last year's Ackley. Alvarez is a slugger with a 2 EYE, Ackley is an all around plus plus hitter with a 1 EYE. Alvarez is a mediocre fielding third baseman with a future in LF or 1B. Ackley is an average defensive CFer with a future in the outfield or at 1B if his health becomes a problem.
Orgs take their time more wiht guys who aren't as intelligent at the plate, even with huge upside power potential. ESPECIALLY Pittsburgh - known for dragging its heals getting prospects to the big club and ruining them in the process.
5
Agreed. Alvarez struck out twice as much as Ackley in college and never had a season as good as Ackley's '09. Alvarez has more raw power, but Ackley is definetly much more polished with better contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and strike zone judgement.
A more comparable college hitter would be Gordon Beckham. Although Beckham hit 3-4 more HRs prorated in his '08 season, statistically they were VERY similar hitters in their walk years.
6
...Beckham is the starting 3B in Chicago.
7
... but you don't need a cookie-cutter comp in order to remember that the highest picks in the draft often fail.
Alvarez was by far the best college hitter in the 2008 draft.
.................
That said, Alvarez is hardly a failure -- 300/400/550 in AA, his first full year of pro ball, and in the 2H it's got to be considerably higher than that.
Still, asking Dusty to rake ML pitching a few months from now is asking a lot :- )
8
Doc...the reason I cared at all about the comp to Alvarez is that the type of hitter matters a great deal when trying to predict how they'll do in the near future. A guy who is relying on power without the developed EYE or HIT is going to need more time in the organization to learn those skills before he gets promoted. Alvarez is doing very well in AA, but it's understandable that Pittsburgh might want to ease him in. A contact hitter with great batspeed and a great eye does not need minor league at bats to learn how to recognize pitchers or what have you...he's already developed in ways that matter to a major league game. I don't think it's asking much at all for Ackley to hit a slap-happy .290 with good OBP next year. His kind of skills translate well to the majors more often than not.
9
And in this case, the differences between the two might be fundamental, too. Ackley's HIT ability is (by all accounts) pretty much as good as it gets coming out of college. That's an important odds-changer.
Still, I hope we all realize that the true can't-misses are limited to approximately Strasburg, Lincecum and ARod :- )
10
...I'm still laying odds that by no later than June of 2010, Ackley is the starting left fielder.
11
Gordon Bekham was by far the best college hitter in 2008. Alvarez was drafted over Beckham thanks to his tools (although I wouldn't have drafted Alvarez over Beckham).
Beckham had a far better eye and K'ed at half the rate of Alvarez. Heck, he even hit for more power in the same conference.
College hitters aren't a gaurantee, but I'd be shocked if Ackley weren't in the majors at least by some time in '11. Hes one of the most polished guys to come out since Gordon Beckham and Matt Laporta.