=== Dallas Braden Tuesday ===
Breaking the right arm twisting it to pat yourself on the back... :- ) check this article by the internet's second-best pitching analyst.
When a mediocrity like Braden detonates a weak 2009 offense, you have three possible interpretations, Yogi:
The M's offense is being fricasee'd on the 'net today, but the eyes told Dr. D that Braden's change was shellshocking, and this morning Dave Allen demonstrated this to be the case.
I guess Billy Beane knew about Braden's plateau leap, which could explain the A's slotting Braden ahead of two other very good teammates. If I were playing roto, I would hope desperately for Braden to get knocked out early next start, and then I'd trade (say) RRS and Eric Byrnes for him.
Braden was terrific. Don't hold that game against the M's. Nobody could have hit those changeups.
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=== Justin Duchscherer ===
Total wild card. What's your read on him? Easy enough to say, wait and see. But if you're roto drafting, do you move him higher, or lower, down the list?
Move him up. Duke has always had superb pitchability, as corroborated by his lifetime 3+ control ratio. His mental-health months off serve to freshen his arm. He's in the right environment, with a great organization and a great home park.
Though his stuff isn't impressive, Duke is a variation on the Harden - Bedard - Sheets type of gamble -- you could get $20 roto out of Duke or you could get $2.
I'm betting towards the $20. I like his chances this year. We'll see.
..............
Not even going to link the Duke-vs-M's matchups, since Duke's history the last year-plus is so spotty anyway.... well, okay. Duke gives all of our infielders absolute fits, especially Chone. Good day to get Tui in there?
Good day for slider-speed bats, too, such as Langerhans'.
Anyway, see if the M's have any more luck with Duke's pitchability than with Braden's. Both of these two guys are quintessential Billy Beane starters: performance over talent, cost savings over comfort zones. Ron Shandler would be proud (and in possession of about $220 worth of hitting to back them up).
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=== Ryan Rowland-Smith ===
Results very malleable against these particular A's .... pretty good SLG for RRS, but! based on a lucky 1 HR in 78 AB's ... lousy K/BB. Nothing strong here to go on: just a generic set of results.
My key to the game, is that I don't want RRS facing hitter #28. This "big Aussie workhorse" shtick chaps my hide constantly. Actually, I don't want him going out for the 7th in any case, unless he's got a two-hitter going.
Can the relievers enter the game early, then? Huindekmi posts a reliever readiness index. The bullpen is in perfectly viable shape, except only that Kao-Kan is out. Wouldn't be a bad day to have White go two or three innings as needed.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
60-40 A's tonight. And if the M's drop to 1-2, no biggie. Just hope idly for an Angels loss.
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Cheers,
Dr D
I was STUNNED...his change-up was WAY sharper than I ever remember it being in previous starts with the As...but I don't hold the Mariners responsible for this. Game one, they took BUNCHES of pitches...game two, they were arm-swinging at everything and caught in between all night. I don't think either version is the truth...I think the truth is somewhere in between.
Its a combination of good pitching, a wide strike zone, and bad hitting.
Braden is better than advertised, but 10 Ks are a little silly.
I think the window of opportunity has closed for the rest of the division.
This isn't a reaction to the 1-3 start (it could easily be 2-2), its a reaction to watching CJ Wilson pitch in the rotation. Hes going to be Breakout SP of 2010.
Texas is going to run away with it. I already had Texas as the favorites, but CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis (we get to see his debut tommorow) are a lot better than everybody realizes.
Long-term, Texas is also in a tremendous position to stay at the top for a while. We'll give it a shot, but if the division is pretty much decided by June then it wouldn't be a bad year to rebuild and pawn off Cliff Lee and Bedard at the deadline if they're healthy.
Taro calls it quits with 2% of the season in the books.
I think Texas is going to end up 5 games+ ahead of the 2nd place team this year.
Pre-season I thought Texas had a 2-3 game advantage over the competition (something that could easily be overcome), but that was before I watched CJ Wilson pitch... Good grief. He changes the equation drastically.
And frankly...I don't think much of Harden's chances to stay healthy or of Harrison or Feldman's chances to be anything but mediocre. And I think their bullpen SUCKS...so they're going to blow a lot of leads.
I don't like Harden's chances of staying healthy either, but they only need him for 100+ innings and then they have Holland and Feliz in AAA.
I don't see CJ as a star, but I see him as a slightly above-average pitcher. CJ Wilson looks like 3 WARish pitcher to me.. That throws off my WAR projections and puts the Rangers a nice arms length ahead.
Its not like the Ms have no chance of competing or anything. They could trade for Adrian Gonzalez tommorow and that would make our outlook brighter obviously. I just find it unlikely right now. We NEED to get off to a hot start. Even with Lee and Bedard healthy, I don't think we're a better team than Texas anymore, so we can't fall too far behind with our BOR starters.
...possessing 5 rotation spots worth of average pitching. Harden/Holland/Felix will combine to be a little better than average (Harden well better, Holland and Felix well worse as they have their youthful growing pains), Feldman and Harrison are nothing special...Lewis isn't either...I don't really care how much he detonated Japan...he's just another junkballer as far as I'm concerned. And I think you're making a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGE assumption if you think CJ Wilson is going to hold up and stay healthy all year. He had sporadic health problems AS A RELIEVER...do you honestly think he's going to be an avbove average pitcher for the 200 innings he'd need to get to be worth 3 WAR? Cause I don't.
Harrison stinks. Did he win a rotation spot? If so, he won't last long and Texas certainly has better options.
I think Feldman is the worst SP of the group (either than Harrison) and hes better than RRS. He had a 3.3 WAR season last year.
The Rangers' rotation is very underrated. They might actually have a better rotation 1-5 than the Ms depending on how healthy Bedard is going to be.
Good point on Wilson's health though. Lewis also is going to have 1 day less rest in between starter in the MLB so we'll see how that affects him. If both those guys get injured, that'll shift the power balance back to a more even level in the AL West.
Feldman had a LUCK-TACULAR and defense-assisted 3.3 WAR. If he breaks 2 WAR this year, I'll be surprised. Harrison did indeed win a rotation spot and is going against King Felix tomorrow. He sucks. And I think you're expecting way too much out of CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis...I agree their rotation isn't as bad as some assume, but I don't think it's better than Seattle's if Bedard and Lee get back in May some time.
The Rangers have decided to use Neftali Feliz in the bullpen for all of 2010 because they're short on good arms in there and they want to protect Feliz from an IP jump. So he's a reliever...not a starter. And I'm not a fan of Holland's chances to have a big impact in 2010 either. So...they're kind of stuck with Harrison unless they change their mind about Feliz.
WAR is based on FIP.
I'm kind of having second thoughts on Lewis though after watching him pitch today. He had nerves in the 1st, but afterwords showed great fastball command.
His fastball lacks run as someone pointed out in the original Colby Lewis thread, but with good rise. He actually managed 8 swinging strikes, six of those were on fastballs. It just goes to show the effectiveness of a located 90mph fastball, but his changeups/sliders weren't very impressive and he barely threw his curve (IMO his best offspeed pitch from what little NPB video I saw).
The grade is incomplete. This style of pitcher is going have to stay fresh throughout the season to stay effective since he relies on crisp fastball command and without 5 days rest he could crash and burn in the 2nd half of the season..I need to see another start to see if hes going to start showing an above-average slider and curve.
I really like Holland as a SP, and Feliz actually probably profiles better as a reliever (although it significantly limits his upside as a player).
I still think WAR is overestimating Ffeldman's value in '09.
When you have a tremendously lucky year on other fronts, your DIPS rate line is going to be inlated.
As for the rest, I've seen swveral pitchers detonate inferior leagues like the NPB using only a crisply located fastball...they don't tend to succeed in the AL.
I like Holland long too...I just don't think it's reasonable to expect big numbers in 2010.
And I agree on Feliz being better suited to close...but their pen still sucks.