Rat cheer...
Ya, the draft picks cut their losses -- either of the picks definitely cancels Gillies, and the other one may cancel 50% of Juan Ramirez. So you're comfortable giving a #11 overall and half of Ramirez for a year of Lee at a bargain salary.
If he's a rental, the payment is fair, I spose. If he sticks around for a Braves dynasty it will be a little less fair :- )
=== Sweetness In Seattle, Dept. ===
Geoff Baker with a tremendous job, as usual, of asking the right people the right questions.
Here's a great example of the value of the fact-finding sector trumping that of our logic-and-speculation sector. :- ) We could have argued all winter about what the logic of the trade was. Baker found out what it was.
Geoffy doesn't get enough credit. His is the most valuable website in cyber-Seattle, and one of the best baseball columns I've ever seen. Few beat writers combine expert-level knowledge, an on-field background, with access, and feel for what is most important.
Frank Hughes was real good with the Sonics. Kevin Calabro is world class. John Clayton was epic. Baker is close to as good as Clayton was in his early years, and even better than Hughes was, because more willing to go no-holds-barred in public.
He's also courageous, both with fans and with the Mariners. It's tough for a guy with access to uncompromisingly release his info, and a credit to Zduriencik that he does not take offense to this. That's a tough line for Baker to walk. He's been doing it, and Zduriencik has not knocked him off the high wire for it.
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=== I Wanted League. So Sue Me, Dept. ===
Capt Jack freely confirmed that the Morrow trade was not linked, and that in fact the Morrow-League deal was on the table long before Cliff Lee fell into his lap.
.............
Under varying degrees of insistence from Baker, Zduriencik acknowledged that:
1. Morrow will start in Toronto
2. League will relieve in Seattle
3. Morrow's spot in the rotation was iffy in Seattle
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=== Best Athlete Available, Dept. ===
He characterized the trade as talent-for-talent -- read, a special arm for a special arm.
This keeps the idea of the "talent pyramid" in view. It's a variation on "draft the best player available." SP value vs RP value is one variable, but so is the variable of "get the best guys on your team."
This is a paradigm that differs from the $/WAR SP vs $/WAR RP paradigm. It puts "paid" to the ticket that says that one can calculate "correct" trades off Fangraphs data -- but then, so did the Lee trade. Aumont by himself is going to provide more win value than Lee and his draft picks.
That's fine. A President wants to be fully aware of what the world looks like through six different pairs of 3-D glasses. He doesn't want to be ignorant of any of them. Neither does he want to be encumbered by any of them. Zduriencik's mastery of baseball transcends $/WAR calculation. I approve of this.
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=== Yer Needed One Sometime, Dept. ===
KRod, Papelbon, Rivera, even the great setup relievers, the championship ballclubs have those.
The Xmas present for M's fans, here, is a 98-mph, Daimajin-fork tornado who will very likely be the M's key relief ace when they win the pennant. A great relief ace is one of a champion's five or six most important commodities.
The superstar closers make loonnnnnng green.
................
Capt Jack obviously sees League as a special relief pitcher. Maybe yer should re-think Brandon League? (Not you, Taro-nator.)
Baker asked Zduriencik the question you did. Why not get League for less? Capt Jack's answer: you couldn't get League for less. He's a special pitcher. You had to give them a special pitcher.
Hope that gila-monster interview didn't cost Geoffy access time. :- ) What a great job.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Z sounds like he really wasn' t high on Morrow. I'm with him there, but I'm interested in why he passed on Ed.Jackson.
Its also interesting to see Z reference League's "swings and misses". :-)
In a way, as BABIP caused us to re-think AVG, swings and misses cause a re-thinking of K's.
Neither BABIP nor swing % benefit from exaggeration, but both are core processes that drive a lot of other things. Like you say, interesting to see a GM speaking the saberdweeb language to a general audience.
Can't really say I would blame him for dumping morrow. Maybe Z see's Yusmerio Petit as a #5 starter in the future. Just too bad you couldn't trade morrow to SD for say Joe Thatcher...
Still league ain't a bad pick just not a spectacular bullpen pick.
I know that I was a lot frostier about Jackson than most of the blog-o-sphere. While I don't know why Z wasn't warmer on Edwin, I can explain why I was.
2009 - 1st half: 2.52-ERA; 121-IP; 35-BB; 97-K; 10-HR; 7.2-K/9; 2.77-K/BB
2009 - 2nd half: 5.07-ERA; 92.1-IP; 35-BB; 64-K; 17-HR; 6.2-K/9; 1.83-K/BB
In 2009, Jackson put together a fantastic 3 month run. The rest of 2009, he reverted to pretty much the same control-challenged talent he had been the previous 5 years.
I get that he's only 25. I get that those eye-popping numbers from the first half are drool-inducing. But, I see a kid who has exactly 3 months where he maintained a K/BB above 2.00. His 1.1 HR/9 is rock steady - absolutely zero improvement there. His K rate didn't improve, so much as it was a good year, (but not his best). The only peripheral where Jackson really gained was walks. But the gain was pretty much isolated to the 1st half.
How do you tell if a 25-year-old kid had a career year vs. a breakout? You wait and see. The optimists see Jackson as a kid who finally "got it" and has arrived ... as a legit #2 starter. I view him as the pitcher-equivalent of 2004 Beltre. Yes, age is important. But, Jackson has been learning against major leaguers for 7 seasons. Sure, the first 4 years were limited engagements. But, he's got 670 innings compared to Morrow's 200.
It's not JUST age. The more innings thrown w/o improving gradually lowers the odds of future improvement. And the bulk of the "improvement" seen in 1st half of 2009 vanished overnight.
So, what did he DO during the first half that made him so good? Well, he walked fewer hitters and struck out more. "Something" was working. But, he *ALSO* ran a .249 BABIP in the 1st half. In the 2nd half, he ran a .312. His career BABIP against is .306. So, for 3 months, everything hit stuck in a glove.
The ultimate scope on Jackson mostly relies on whether one believes the 1st three months of 2009 are representative of what he'll bring in the future -- or whether the last three months are. Age and player control (salary) issues count against him in a trade for Morrow. As to what Jack saw ... can only guess. Me? I viewed Morrow and Jackson both as BOR projects that would only move to TOR types if/when they could develop consistency.
I was originally a little suspicious that Z was cleaning house of Bavasi prospects, partially to make his mark on the team, and remove all traces of the prior regime. But after thinking through it a bit more, I don't think this is entirely accurate.
In Baker's interview, Z seems to speak genuinely about Morrow's potential and raw talent. He knows he's got a special arm. What I think, though, is that Z is spetacularly UN-satisfied with what lies between Morrow's two ears. Morrow just isn't Z (or Wak's) type of ballplayer. The whole confusing situation last year where Morrow pulled himself out of the rotation, citing diabetes issues, and then "changing" his mind... I think that was the point at which Z made up his mind on the kid. Z wants self-confident ballplayers who are laser focused on stomping the opponent. I don't think Z saw this in Morrow.
A counter example to this would be Snell. Snell is arguable even less unsure of himself than Morrow. But if you look a little deeper, I think there are some fundamental differences in how the two players see themselves. I think Snell's issues are mostly superficial, born out of what must have been an emotionally draining life in Pittsburgh. But deep down, it's my opinion that Ian Snell has that killer instinct. The killer instinct that Z demands, and that Brandon Morrow will never have.
I'm assuming a lot of things, and this is all pure speculation. But after watching Brandon since he was drafted, and being one of his hugest proponents, this is my assesment of one of the rationales behind the deal.
That said, not one fiber of my being will be surprised when Brandon throws a 17-4 season next year, and just as un-surprised when Z doesn't blink at it.
The two biggest keys I see are that his command has improved a few years in a row and his SwS% jumped in '09. Add that he pitched 30+ more inning AND averaged over 15 more pitches per start, and it seems likely that fatigue was setting in during the 2nd half.
I mean you never know with pitchers, but I do think Ed.Jackson has a good chance of breaking out next season. I think Morrow struggles next season and Ed.Jack takes that next step.
They have completely different kinds of makeup issues -- Snell's rooted in frustration, Morrow's rooted in passivity.