Matt, can you just explain a couple things.
Why would you give Seager the same grade as Triunfel? Just wondering what this is based on? Is it an overall grade as a prospect? From everything I've read and heard Triunfel, even after missing this entire season, is a much better prospect than Seager. More raw power, contact skills, speed, range, arm, progressed through high A at 18/19, while Seager hasn't even played high A at 21.
I thought the consensus on Seager was that he's a steady bet to be a big leaguer, but maxes out as pretty much a league average 2B, while Triunfel even after missing the year, is still projected as a guy who can give you solid defense at 2B as well as above average bat production?
Secondly, just my opinion but I'd have Carp as a B, and Poythress as a B+. I guess the argument is that Carp is further along, and ready to play big league ball, but I think long term Poythress has the power potential that Carp won't come close to, and the same OBP skills.
See the mid-summer review for pitching if you're looking for the full explanation for how I grade players. We will continue this series with a breakdown of the right side of the Mariner infield and Seattle's backstops.
The relevant moves that have impacted the Mariners' situation at these three positions: the Clement for Snell trade, the signing of Russ Branyan, Mike Sweeney, Ian Bladegroen and until today, Chris Shelton, the addition of Chris Woodward and Jack Hannahan, and the acquisition of Mike Carp and Rich Poythress.
Let's start with the 2008 catchers and work our way around...
Catching (MLB - 2008)
- Kenji Johjima (D+)
- Jamie Burke (D-)
- Jeff Clement (C-)
Catching (Prospects)
- Rob Johnson (C+)
- Adam Moore (B+)
- Travis Scott (F)
- Travis Howell (D)
Johjima is coming off a bad year, but if he starts, you hope his bat bounces back, You’ve got two, possibly three good options fast climbing your minor league pipeline (if I’d listed Clement as a prospect, he’d have been about the same grade as Moore…perhaps a notch down due to injuries and poor defense), but the low minors are now empty of catchers.
MLB: D+
Prospects: B
Depth: C+
Overall: C+
Catching (MLB - 2009)
- Rob Johnson (C-)
- Kenji Johjima (D+)
- Jamie Burke (D-)
- Guierrmo Quiroz (F)
Catching (Prospects)
- Adam Moore (B+)
- Steve Baron (B)
- Travis Scott (D)
- Blake Ochoa (D+)
You can feel free to quibble with my rating of Rob Johnson. I’m giving him a lot of credit for working well with the pitching staff, and for having head-room to improve his hitting enough for that good game he calls to have value. I might be overselling him. The overall situation among Mariner backstops is not good until you start looking at the two prospects they’re grooming. Adam Moore is close to being ready and that counts for a lot in 2010.
MLB: D+
Prospects: B
Depth: C-
Overall: C
First Base (MLB - 2008)
- Bryan LaHair (D)
- Miguel Cairo (Z - LOL)
First Base (Prospects)
- Craig Wilson (F)
- Thomas Hubbard (D+)
- Johan Limonta (C-)
- Joseph Dunigan (D-)
Oh the huge-manatees! Look at that black hole of despair around which the Mariners are circling at this time at this position. When your starter is Bryan LaHair, when Miguel Cairo gets 40 starts a first base, you’d better have Albert Pujols ready to come up and SOON…but the Mariners had NO ONE.
MLB: F
Prospects: D-
Depth: F
Overall: F
First Base (MLB - 2009)
- Russell Branyan (B+)
- Mike Sweeney (D)
First Base (Prospects)
- Mike Carp (B+)
- Rich Poythress (B+)
- Brad Nelson (C-)
- Bryan LaHair (D)
- Ian Bladergroen (C+)
- Thomas Hubbard (F)
- Evan Sharpley (D)
Considering the horrible condition of the Mariner organization at first base when Z took over, the turn around here is mind boggling. Not only did he get us a masher for the big league club at the position, but he found two pretty darned solid prospects right away to put in the high minors and he acquired a little bit of additional depth to place around them.
MLB: B
Prospects: B+
Depth: B
Overall: B
Second Base (MLB - 2008)
- Jose Lopez (C+)
- Willie Bloomquist (D+)
- Miguel Cairo (D-)
- Tug Hulett (D+)
Second Base (Prospects)
- Luis Valbuena (C)
- Yung-Chi Chen (C-)
- Carlos Triunfel (B+)
- Oswaldo Navarro (D)
- Edilio Colina (F)
- Luis Nunez (F)
The big man on campus here is Jose Lopez, and even at this, there wasn’t much to pressure Lopez to fight for his job given how raw Carlos Triunfel was in 2008. Valbuena probably has Willie Bloomquist upside if you’re reading his player card in September of 2008. Chen has had a terrible year after all of the positive reviews in the AFL. The club doesn’t see 2B as a hole, but it’s not really a strength either.
MLB: C
Prospects: B-
Depth: C
Overall: C+
Second Base (MLB - 2009)
- Jose Lopez (C+)
- Chris Woodward (D)
- Jack Hannahan (D+)
Second Base (Prospects)
- Callix Crabbe (F)
- Alex Cintron (D)
- Kyle Seager (B-)
- Edilio Colina (D)
- Carlos Triunfel (B-)
This still looks like an organizational hole, which is why they drafted Kyle Seager and Nick Franklin and why I expect them to continue to target middle infielders in coming drafts and trades. Jose Lopez is holding down the fort just fine at the big league level, but you can’t let yourself get satisfied with average-solid players when there are opportunities to upgrade and Lopez now stands as the only man on the entire team who is a fielding liability.
MLB: C
Prospects: C+
Depth: D
Overall: C
Comments
...my prospect raating is a combination of a player's probability to make the big leagues and stay there, and his probability of being a big impact player when he gets there.
Triunfel is raw, not particularly intelligent, and set back a year by injury. He's also a LOUSY fielder so far, and despite his huge power POTENTIAL, he's shown no particular ability to master his power game. His ceiling is very high (he'd get an A in raw potential) but his chances of making the big leagues and sticking are quite low compared to Seager. IOW I have Triu as an A/C prospect and Seager as a B-/B- prospect.
On Carp vs. Poythress, Poythress also has a slightly higher ceiling, but Carp is much closer to being a finished product, so for now, he's a hair ahead. Both of them are nice to have, though.
....having stated my reasoning for some of my grades (and if anyone wants clarification or wants to voice disagreement with a grade, feel free...I welcome that kind of conversation), that there is a margin for error..especially with the prospect grades. I treat prospect ratings very fluidly. Baseball America makes a scouting report on a player and then it can often take 3 years for a new opinion to form or for a player's rating to change significantly. You'll see leter grades changing as events unfold very fluidly on my depth charts. Triunfel himself was a B+ prospect before the injury and is now a B- due to the increased uncertainty and delayed growth.
Saunders, if rated as a prospect, would have moved from solid B to B+ in 10 months. And of course, my ratings are not going to be perfect. So there's plenty of room for disagreement, especially if you're willing to talk about why you disagree.
The 2008 batting line for catchers in the AL was: .252/.297/.377/.674 -- that is, by definition, the average AL catcher in 2008. (Of course, starters tend to hit better than reserves, and the benchies will pull down the aggregate more at catcher than at other spots - but it's a fair place to at least start the discussion of what you expect OFFENSIVELY from your average catcher.
Johnson, as a 25-year-old rookie currently has a .218/.295/.335/.630 line. Yeah, given his plusses with staff-handling, and his 33% CS rate, (league avg in 2008 was 27%) ... I would say grading him at C- is perfectly reasonable, if you expect his current hitting line for the whole season is all he'll ever do.
But, what is a catcher supposed to hit to be considered more than C? Johnson hit over .800 during July. Okay, it's just one hot streak. Or is it? His development to this point is all over the place. From A- to A his production went UP as he rose: .624; .749; .824; Small samples, of course, but that's a really, really, fast track. He skipped AA entirely, going straight from A+ to AAA, (at age 22). He STRUGGLED in year 1 at AAA, (.231/.261/.318/.579). But, in his second year, (and in 422 ABs), he posted a .268/.331/.372/.703 line at age 23.
In 2008, he spent year 2.5 at Tacoma, and posted a .305/.363/.441/.804 line.
The evidence shows a guy who LEARNS as he goes. He hasn't failed to adjust at any point, given just a bit of time. He's also been all over the place with his patience - 50, 40, 70, 30, 60, and a current best 75 points of isolated OBP ... in the MAJORS!?!?
The juicy center of his final two years in AAA would be something like: .280/.350/.400. But, remember that until 2009, he was in an organization that PREACHED contact over selectivity. Now, he's in an organization that is preaching intelligent design in regards to hitting approach.
Maybe the fact his 1/11; 4/12; 3/12 BB/K splits morphed into 10/10 during July is simply random. I don't REALLY think he's a .387 OBP guy. But, how the heck can I tell what is reasonable for a kid who barely has 200 PAs in the majors? Maybe the 75 IsoBB rate is high. Maybe as the league adjusts to him, he'll fade. But, a .270/.345/.385 line seems completely reasonable as a landing point. That would be a .730 OPS ... a miniscule 56 points above the avg. 2008 catcher.
Basically, the club has had to spend most of 2009 UN-doing the damage done by the previous regime. For some players, (Wlad), they never got anywhere. With Johnson, the evidence, (sparse as it may be), suggests that he's adapting. He appears to ME to be one of those guys whose major league lines is going to outstrip his minor league aggregate, (which is: .270/.323/.389/.712). I don't expect he'll ever fit the mold of 20-HR catcher. But, if he can get his OBP over .320, he's definitely a net plus OFFENSIVELY, (considering the average catcher doesn't break .300 OBP).
Moore may have more inate power. But, there is little else I see that actually makes Moore a significantly better prospect. I'm not thrilled he LOST 120 points of OPS in year 2 in AA. Knowing what Safeco does to righty modest-power guys ... I'm thinking Johnson may actually be more valuable OFFENSIVELY in the long term "in Seattle". I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Moore becoming Johnson's backup in 2011.
...to be clear, if Rob Johnson were being graded on the prospect scale, he would be getting something more like a B-, not a C-, because I do think he upside is more likely to eventually be reached than average and that his midline projection is basically Dan Wilson with the bat and with the pitchers. He's a terrible fielding catcher, though, unlike Wilson who was average. Hopefully he learns and improves that part of his game.
But Rob Johnson's C- grade is based on what the club can reasonably expect from him in the coming months...not the coming several years. I don't think Johnson is all that close to being a finished product yet...he hasn't played enough baseball in his life to be fully molded. It may take another year to start lifting up his rating, though certainly, this July is encouraging.
Moore has enough power potential, even in Safeco, to justify a higher prospect rating than Johnson...and I would not read too much into his second year at AA...Moore looks like a guy who got bored playing at a level beneath him and frustrated with the organization for freezing his progress behind Clement and Johnson
What happened to Travis Howell in the 2009 prospects section, and where does Raben rank in the 1b/DH prospects? Was he not included because he is out for the year?
And that's primarily because he's blocked by a bunch of other guys at first and can play the outfield.
Howell has hit so poorly this year that he's fallen off the prospect chart for the time being. I could put him on the list but he's got a long ways to go so he's not going to affect the organizational prospect score at the position much yet.