Seattle Sports Insider

Mass Hypnotism

Posted by

jemanji

6/20/09

=== Baseball Gettin' Fun Dept. ===

So the M's are 34-34 and the Rangers, as predicted here, are finding their level. Only 3.5 back. That's one series.

Care to guess what the M's were last year after 68 games?

24-44. That's -20 games below .500.

Kudos to Capt Jack and Wok for giving us an exciting ballclub in their very first years (here, or anywhere).

=== Group Hallucination Dept. ===

I'd like for it to be fun next, year, too, which is why I keep thinking about Erik Bedard's next contract.

At our fave hangout MC, we find continual amusement in the fact that ALL of the writers think Bedard will be lucky to get $12-15M per year. Dr. D cut his "offer" :- ) to $16-18M longterm, and the reaction is, "he doesn't even deserve that short term."

It's a fair question: Is $16-18M unprecedented for a "volatile" pitcher like Erikkkk?

Do "volatile" pitchers get big money? It's a fair question, and here's my fair response. :- )

1) All pitchers are volatile, but I know what you mean.

2) The Sox spent >$100M / 6 for DiceK, who had never pitched in the majors and who had a long history of overuse.

3) A.J. Burnett just got precisely $16-17m ($16.5) times 5 years, and he had 4 injury seasons in the previous 6 years. Burnett is considerably more volatile than Erik Bedard, and he wasn't going to accept Carlos Silva money.

4) Johann Santana's elbow has been hanging by a thread for two years

5) Salaries in general are "unprecedented" each winter compared to historical salaries. If we ask, "how many volatile pitchers made the market rate that winter," the answer will be, "most of them."

Barry Zito, for example, got a HUGE deal in a contract that the Giants knew was a gamble. Old guys like Clemens, Randy Johnson, and Pettitte get giant salaries.

Andy Pettitte, slap me silly, got $17.5m.

I don't mean this in an unfriendly way, but the group hallucination that you all are having on Erik Bedard's value is pretty weird. :- ) But, again, if you can get him for Carlos Silva 4 x $12m jack, maybe plus parking money if you're feeling generous ... power to you.

Erik Bedard is a $20M pitcher.

The "risk premium" and hometown discount MIGHT get him in here for $16 or $18 a year or something. But don't think that his agent hasn't noticed the fact that he's the best pitcher in the big leagues.

=== Junior Scratched ===

Geoff Baker reports that Junior had 2 ounces of blood (and pus) drained from his knee yesterday. So imagine yourself having a festering wound on your leg, from which 1/4 cup of fluid had to be extracted. What kind of inflammation do you think you'd have around the area?

Which reminds us of why Junior's power can look pretty warning track sometimes. Power comes from the lower half of the body. Pretty amazing that he was able to go 425 feet Friday night.

It underlines that Griffey's not a viable option for a lot of play in LF. All y'all say, because he can't play acceptable defense. It occurs to me, because the knee is worse than I thought. All the Mariners have said is, it's not an option; we can nyah-nyah each other about which problem was the cause of that. :- )

Geoff Baker's postgame puts an excellent color on the warrior mentality going on right now in the M's locker room. Geoff is a super baseball writer who has a real gift for picking out the essence of the story going on at the moment.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

And, yeah

For the lurkers who don't get Dr. D, the 'best pitcher in the big leagues' is half tongue-in-cheek. But you know what I mean.
Seattle fans aren't used to running with the big dogs. This city has NEVER been in bidding wars for men like Mark Teixeira, Dice Matsuzaka, and CC Sabathia. Y'all are free-agent-war virgins.
Our clocks are stuck on Honda Civic contracts. The M's brass has done its job well. But if this is NY or LA or Boston, we aren't having this conversation about Erik Bedard taking #3 starter money.
.................
But, back onto the postgame celebration, it's going to be nice to get a few games over .500, pull real close, and then get to go see Felix, Bedard, and Morrow all summer. :- )

Doc, Bedard from '05-'08

Doc, Bedard from '05-'08 AVERAGED $14.1mil of value per year. He just doesn't stay healthy enough to eat innings. Thats comfortably less than Derek Lowe and AJ Burnett, thats nearly HALF of what Sabathia has averaged over the past three years ($28mil). The market now is DOWN since that period.
Hes not a $20mil player. He just isn't. If he'd averaged 200 IPs a year and continued his '07 dominance he would be, but thats not reality.
A year ago Bedard's agent OPENED with 98/7. That was after his '07 season in a healthy economy. Do you WANT to overpay him? I really don't understand it..

On a different note, with

On a different note, with Beltre banged up this may be the right time to experiment with Branyan at 3B, Carp at 1B, and Griffey DH. With Felix on the hill tommorow we'll need the bats more than the gloves..

Its not about being stuck on

Its not about being stuck on Honda Civic contracts. You are overrating Bedard's current market value. Consider his actual performance (IPs + FIP/tRA/xFIP whater) over the past few years and consider the economy.
Keep in mind also he hasn't REACHED FA yet (which will shave $4-10mil off a 5 year deal).
Granted a lot depends on how Bedard FINISHES the year, but if we're smart we would have either extented him or traded him before then. With the recent surge and considering its a heavy buyer's market I'm thinking of extending him ASAP.

I'll accept your assessment of your own thinking :- )

But 4 x $12m is, well... tweaking it by a million or two doesn't change the nature of the disagreement. If the market has adjusted so that "Best pitcher in the AL, one injury year the last four" equal "#4 starter in the AL three years ago," then great, let's buy.
You being my homey here, dude, let's leave it at this: check out whether Erik Bedard's next contract is $25-50m like you guys say or $100M + like I do.
You might as well tell me that Felix is going to get 3/$40 on the open market, as argue what you guys are on Bedard. The disconnect would be no weirder for me.
.................
But like I say, when has this city EVER been in the bidding for a marquee player?

Burnett = Yankee, Contract = Overpay

Doc...you quote Burnett's deal over and over...it's malarkey. The Yankees outbid their nearest rival for Burnett by at least 20 million dollars, or say say the rumor mongers. If true, the market was actually willing to pay him 65 mil...NOT 85 mil. The Yankees don't count...they break the rules CONSTANTLY. And I seriously doubt they're going to be bidding for Erik Bedard because I seriously SERIOUSLY doubt Bedard would want to go to NY.

Incidentally, Doc.

NYAH NYAH!!!!
I believe I was the one who told you to knock that stuff off when it came to projecting Griffey as a LFer on the grounds that he was hurting too much to make that viable (as opposed ot the defensive argument). So pardon my for sticking my tongue out at you. :)

A.J. Burnett's "average

A.J. Burnett's "average value" over 2004-08 was $7M per season. Burnett NEVER valued at more than $13M for ANY season.
He got $16.5M times 5 years. Teams don't pay for past injuries; they pay for the dream of the pennant race.
It would be nice if MLB teams used your paradigm. They do not.

MUCH closer to the REAL

MUCH closer to the REAL market paradigm, on an Opening Day starter, would be, "what was his largest single season value recently."
For Burnett that would have been $13.2M. He got 25% more than that, yearly, long term.
For Bedard, his largest single-season value was $22.2M. By the Burnett Ratio, Bedard's logical salary would be $28M -- times five years.
You've been watching baseball awhile. You know that teams pay ace starters based on what they hope the starter will do.

You're pardoned :- )

Yup

Melancholy, watching Mike Carp twist a bat in his hands on the rail today, watching the game forlornly.
I'd like to know whether the Mariners consider Branyan a feasible option at 3B, if Beltre's hurt. So far, it doesn't look like they do.

Wrong data. Burnett in his

Wrong data. Burnett in his 2008 contract season was worth $25.5mil. He basically one-upped Bedard's '07 thanks to more IPs in his contract year. Hes been worth more on average over the past four years as well.
Ah...I see where you made the mistake. The "salary" column on fangraphs is actual salary paid to the player that year. The "dollars" column is FA$ value based on the actual performance of the player and the the market in that particular year.

Even using Burnett's contract

Even using Burnett's contract as a baseline Bedard shouldn't earn as much unless hes really fantastic in the 2nd half of the season.
If we're smart we won't let it get to that. If you're going to lock him up, now is as good a time as ever (either than pre-season that is).

It is very misguided IMO to

It is very misguided IMO to pay a free agent player based on a unlikely best case scenario. Even by paying them based on what they are likely to produce and/or what they HAVE produced in recent seasons is a huge risk in free agency since values are inflated. HOPING for Bedard's '07 is one thing. PAYING market value for it? Thats just bad strategy IMO.
It IS true that teams put the most emphasis on the most recent season though (whether I think that wise or not). IF Bedard has a tremendous second half that'll do a lot for his value. His 2007 season isn't going to help him at this point anymore than his '08 is going to hurt him.

Burnett's Average Value:

Between 2005 and 2008, Burnett averaged 16.5 million dollars per year in real value. What was his contract again? :)
Bedard will not get what Burnett got...no way does anyone pay that much unless he has a sudden personality change and decides he wants to pitch for the Yankees.

Mood changes

Y'know, when I came here today, I was in a good mood, intending to add my own slightly demented take on the roster decimation. But, reading through this thread put me in a bit of a foul mood. It really shouldn't - and I'm not entirely why - but I figured better to note my acceptance of the mood thingy - and preface my comments by apoligizing if what follows doesn't carry my typical mass of diplomacy.
1) The FA market changes EVERY year. The belief that the Fangraphs (or any other) numerical dartboard shot at "right" is correct in more than the most remote way is pure fantasy. Silva - 4/12 = 48. *THAT* is the starting point standard for discussions about retaining Bedard - because that's the latest ACTUAL FA dumb enough to go hide in the great white northwestern purgatory of Seattle.
2) The Dollar projections are ALL backward looking. They do not (and cannot) take into account salary inflation (or deflation) for the next market). At best, they can potentially teach whether you overpaid or underpaid -- except that EVERY city has its own quirks which impact salary decisions. Players KNOW the Yankees overpay - so they expect to be overpaid - and the Yankees concede the point. But, one could find "supportive" examples for practically any salary/ability combo they want - because they ARE so volatile.
3) If you're going to use the Dollar and Salary numbers to form arguments, then using Seattle pitchers, (staying or leaving), would seem to be the most obvious place to mine for data applicable to the situation. Because guys like Schmidt and Zito WOULDN'T COME.
So - let's look at some actual Seattle FA pitchers:
Batsita -- final two seasons before Seattle 2.1 and 11.0. Of course, his value went 13, 7, 2 before the 2006 spike. Getting 6, 10, 10 was his reward. Was this based SOLELY on the 11 from his final season with D-backs - or did the 2.1 from 2005 count?
Washburn - value was 4.7, 6.1 and 8.1 his final 3 with the Angels. He gets a 7.5, 10, 10, (10?) deal from the Ms.
Silva's value -- 10.3 - 0.4 - 13.4 -- Yes, this wonderful salary handicapping system says that Silva was worth 13.4 million the season before he came - and he was a double-digit value for 3 of the 4 previous seasons. So, I don't want to hear ANYONE who supports the Dollar value system to badmouth the Silva contract -- because 4/48 for Silva was *LOW*, based on his previous performance (3 or 4 seasons), plus the inflation for having to move to Seattle.
Of course, Gil Meche was worth 8.1 his final season in Seattle. Obviously, his 5/50 contract was idiocy, (except, in the first two seasons he's racked up 38.8 million in value - and another 12.4 so far in 2009.)
============
So, Bedard posted 18.4 and 22.2 values in '06 and '07. He comes to Seattle and only managed a 4.7 in year one - throwing for 1/2 a season. He's managed to accumulate 7.2 value ALREADY in 2009, (in only 65 innings). We don't know what he'll do the rest of 2009, but what he has done SO FAR is be 15.8 runs above replacement in ONLY 65 innings - after being only 10.8 in 81 innings in 2008. The 2008 season would appear to be the abberation, (just like with Silva).
Given the horrific results for most recent transferees to Seattle, while his health may be a concern, if he managed 160 innings in 2009 and posts another 16 or 17 million value - then there WILL be multiple teams standing in line willing to pony up big bucks. Why? Because it ain't JUST about Bedard. It's about who else is out there.
I can only think of two cities LESS desirable to head to than Seattle -- KC and Pittsburgh. But, at least you can get a good steak in KC -- and Pittsburgh is the home of Iron City. Why would a player WANT to go to Seattle? For the sterling weather? (Perhaps if you find a kid who has a fixation on musical martyrs, Seattle would be worthy of a discount).
There's a thousand variables that go into choosing a destination city for an FA - and money is only one of them.
But fine - go ahead peg Bedard's value at 14. If you look at the 2008 stats - and the Fangraphs dollar values for ALL pitchers - converting WAR into dollars - you know what was worth 14? Kyle Lohse. (of course, DiceK and Verlander also came in at $14 for 2008). Then again, Peavy only produced $12 value, putting him even with Dana Eveland. (Gee, this whole, figure out projected contracts based on fangraph FA projections is just making more and more sense every minute, isn't it?
Pitching with POTENTIAL to post big numbers ROUTINELY get large salaries, (Pavano ring any bells). Many only have to post ONE stellar season to warrant the risk. Many injury risks don't suffer in the paycheck - they suffer in the years. Only a handful of pitchers have legit POTENTIAL to post $30 dollar seasons. Bedard posted BETTER value in 2007 than Santana, Oswalt, and DiceK. There ain't a lot of pitchers with that POTENTIAL.
Seattle is advantaged at the moment, being able to court Bedard instead of compete for him. Because history says that if they compete for him in FA, they'll lose.

Yes, its backward looking

Yes, its backward looking which is exactly the point. The market is DOWN since years past so earning actual value for years past is a best case scenario IMO.
Much of Bedard's FA value depends on how he finishes the year (and we don't want it to come to that). I'm arguing about his value NOW. How much does it cost to extend Bedard RIGHT now?

Bedard's personality

1) Why do you claim that Seattle is so hideously undesirable, Sandy? It's a lot of travel, so that's one negative. It's out of the east-coast spotlight, so that's another. But the organization has drastically improved in terms of leadership and has put itself in position to be competitive going forward. The extra travel and the problems with media attention might factor in for some guys...but...
2) ...they won't factor in for Bedard. Everything we know about him suggests he LIKES the quiet...he likes living an outdoorsy Canadian lifestyle, which is something Seattle can offer in spades, and he's a warrior on the mound...any particular reason to believe he's going to be that put out by the travel? Bedard is about personal respect...if he feels he is being treated well in the clubhouse, then the other factors matter a lot less.
and...
3) The talk around the league is that few teams are going to be willing to offer anything of major value in trade for Bedard...concerns about his injury status loom too large for anyone to take that risk. Unless he goes out and throws 2 fantastic months in August and September and finishes the eyar with 160 innings and 200 punchies, I don't see how that fear position is going to change so radically that a bidding war will break out over his next contract. That's not to say there won't be suiters...there will be...and you're right that for most free agents, the Mariners can't compete with the markets shining in the bright lights...but you have to go player by player...and you also have to realize that circumstances in Seattle have changed.

Where does Seattle rank on list of desirable destinations?

There's 30 MLB teams to choose from. What are the traits that make a city desireable for a free agent? There's plenty.
1) Chance of a ring -- outside of money, often the primary motivation for FA choices. Major dollar discounts are almost always related to the desire for a ring. But perception is based on HISTORY. It's not just about what you have at the moment - that perception is influenced by all the past successes, (or failures), when talent was plentiful. Seattle's track record here is dreadful -- even with the record for single-season wins, the post-season failures are known. The Bavasi era obviously did little to improve the club on this axis.
2) Playing for a great coach -- this is linked to item #1 -- but can overcome shortterm problems. Though a club may not have been recently in the playoffs, a "name" manager can add prestige to an org in attracting talent. Torre, LaRussa, Pineilla ... Having a first year coach nobody has ever heard of isn't a major selling point. Get to the Series a couple of time, THEN your name carries some weight.
3) Teammates -- a chance to play WITH someone great can be a draw. Whether driven by competition or adjulation, star players can attract other stars - (and sometimes will actively recruit). Ichiro is THE star for the organization, but suffers due to the cultural differences. While he is highly respected among players - he's not the kind of guy that players are lining up to play WITH.
4) Organizational rep for its treatment of players -- the Cards have a stellar rep for running a "family" organization. They prefer to homegrow most of their talent, but even their imports get stamped with the Cardinal Seal over time. Reputation for HELPING players is also part of this -- Atlanta's run of imported pitcher success stories during the Mazone era was a drawing card. What is Seattle's rep? That if you're really, really, really talented - they'll dump you in a heart beat. Unit, Griffey, AROD -- three Hall of Famers tossed aside in their prime. Only FA success story of note is actually Ichiro. An organization that is only willing to compensate fairly if you happen to be Japanese? It may not be a completely fair perception, but it's out there.
5) Away-from-the-park attractions -- the megalopolises have an edge here - regardless of interests, NY offers it. LA also has its own set of perks. Cities like KC, Pittsburgh, Cinci, Seattle? Being in Seattle doesn't make your X-box better.
============
Is the club making improvements? Yes. But, you do not do away with 20+ years of reputation in 6 months.
Yes, Seattle is advantaged with Bedard in FA discussions *IF* he is really enjoying this season, and his new manager, and the new direction of the team. But, if the club jumps in and lowballs his first contract offer, and he (or his agent), or insulted - then whatever good will might've been in play can be undone overnight.

Not about names.

Players don't pick their contract location by searching for big name namagers. If they did, then certainly Mike Hargrove would have attracted the big name FAs more than he did. Players pick teams based on how well they get along with a coaching staff, sure. Part of the negotiation process includes interviewing with the guys who would be your coaches...and on this front, Wakamatsu, first-year nobody or not, has a big advantage just as Ron Washington does in Texas and Terry Francona - no-name schmoe that he was before 2004 - did in Boston. Wakamatsu is a GREAT face to this franchise. Absolutely outstanding with people, especially with his players.
Playing WITH a great player? That can sometimes get involved, but considering how antisocial Bedard is, how much he operates more or less on his own, involving himself in the team only as much as he chooses, no, I don't think it matters for Bedard, although having Griffey around might have helped improve the palpable atmosphere in the clubhouse.
Seattle's reputation is not currently "30 years of losing"...it's "they had some good years a while back and they need to rebuild to do it again." On that point, I agree there are more desirable locations for most free agents, but since Bedard is getting to see first hand that the Mariners are moving in the right direction here, I doubt he's going to be thinking that himself. He's going to be thinking he could be part of turning around a franchise.