Mariners 5, Rangers 11 - the dentist's office, 2

 

 ...........

Don't step into the Rangers' house unless you're ready to dodge a few of the locals.

.

=== Lesson Learned #4 ===

GS-24?  Lesson learned is simple.  You know what to do, Mr. Security Guard.  

... Wedge has used him gingerly, and brought him into a zero-leverage spot this time.  

85.8 MPH on the fastball, and he doesn't throw the slider because it's really just a 75 cut fastball now.  Seen enough?  Supposing that Anthony Vasquez came to camp and executed exactly these pitches?

.

=== Lesson Learned #5 ===

Erasmo is ready to be a plus starter in the American League, starting on April 14, 2012.  ::shrug::  Whenever yer want to win, feel free.

He had everything we'd seen before, every item on the bullet list, and a cherry on top of each mini-scoop.  The poise was superb for an ML debut against such a lineup.  The changeup had excellent drop.  The slider bit hard in to lefties, serving as a type of super-cutter / change hybrid, swerve plus parachute arm action.  

It took him just a couple of batters to completely relax, and then he was having fun out there.

A signature strikeout pitch for him will be:  that 2-2 and 3-2 fastball, 94 mph right on the black.  Called strike three.  Doug Fister with more velo.  When the catcher does not move his mitt, the ump is going to call that pitch.

.........

This EXACT game, this one right here, this is why I resent pulling the magazine out of the rifle before wading in after the alien.  You've got pitchers who can ring up K's, and you're dinking around with technical trainees who are just flat not ready to beat the Texas Rangers at Arlington.

It should be Felix, Vargas, Paxton, Erasmo, and Millwood.  Ah, whatever.  It's just a baseball game.  It's not like it's spears, war nets and arena lions.  Go with the 3-K command guy tomorrow.  Maybe the fly balls will hit the warning track.

.

=== Lesson Learned #6 ===

Noesi has better stuff, and is more raw, than we expected.  

What we expected, at this point in his arc, was a 93 mph groundball machine, a guy who pumped a lively fastball with command, producing lots of weakly-hit balls and a 5 K ratio.  Okay, fine.  A 100 ERA+ starter for the league minimum.  $8M net value hard on the barrelhead

What we actually got was a Matt Garza in embryo, emphasis on the "in embryo."  The stuff was MUCH better than last year.  The fastball produced clusters of foul tips straight back and over the dugout; he threw it by the Rangers constantly, including their lefty hitters such as Hamilton.  The slider and change moved TWICE as much as last year, and the arm action had the Rangers frozen.  Really good stuff.  You could see the Rangers were having difficulty seeing the pitches, early on.

He had zero command within the zone.  His mechanics, his release point, which is what caused the yanked pitches early.  Sometimes it comes off his fingers wrong.  Other times he jerks his head left.  Lots of times he just leaves offspeed stuff up.  There's so much shimmy in the machinery, it's hard to imagine how long it will take to correct it all.

..........

Hector has a live arm and he is making progress.  Hey Gordon.  Just how long would you estimate until this guy has enough reps, and gets on top of his own game?  Half a year?  One and a half years?

Listen, nobody ever said that Hector Noesi was a certified AL(TM) starting pitcher.  He's got very little ML experience beyond what Erasmo Ramirez, or you, have.  It's going to be a while, it says here, before Noesi has his own slop together.  Before he does, I'm thinking The Ballpark is not the right crib for him.  At least Blake Beavan has his own slop together.  At least he got that much.

..........

It ain't that Hector lost a game.  The Rangers beat good pitchers.  It's that he is so early in his career, and it's four pitches to nail, and it ain't like he's an inch away.

I'd swap Hector out for Erasmo, NEXT START OH YEAH BABY, and do the ballclub a favor.  Like Earl says, there are 24 other guys to whom the shot-callers have a grave responsibility.  Let Hector get on top of his own game, and let him do it out of the bullpen.

Or not,

Dr D

Comments

1
ghost's picture

...though I would say that although Noesi's slider was moving more...he was hanging it more too. That pitch is not an out pitch until he learns to keep it down...in the first, he did fan Hamilton, but not before Hamilton hit a 480 foot foul ball two feet right of the pole on a big fat hanging slider that *I* could have mashed...and I'm legally blind. Noesi needs to be sent down to AAA...not to the bullpen. He does not have a reliever's rhythm...he needs to work on his starter's rhythm by starting games. In Tacoma. That's where you learn mechanics...his mechanics are LOUSY and need a lot of work.
I would call up Carter Capps and move E-Ram to the pen.

2

My car was getting a shimmy this week.  I took it in and the mechanic said he could take the lug nuts off the left front with his fingers.
There's just so much shimmy, in so many areas, I can't visualize any (much less all) of these four pitches being thrown with ML precision.
If he comes out next start and kicks tail, good for him.  Based on this start, can't see how it would happen.

3

Considering the great discussion about sport psychology a thread over, I would think that somewhere in here it would be noted that a young guy with little MLB experience, making his first start for a new club is *understandably* nervous. And also that you only have one "first" start with any club.
Yes, Darvish ... (who has actually been a pro for some time) ... managed to rein in the butterflies and settle down. The guy taking Pineda's spot in the lineup didn't. But, how much of Noesi's struggles were due to genuinely flawed mechanics ... and how much was due to the internal battle of the moment? I certainly don't know. But I know he went 7 innings in his final ST start with no walks.
I watched Glavine go 7-17 with a 4.56 ERA as a 22-year old, 3 years before winning 20 in 1991. He was all over the place in terms of performance from game to game. He had some awful games ... and then he'd turn around and pitch great and show a hint of what he could do ... if he could develop some consistency.
After 9 starts, his ERA was 7.90.
After 17 starts, his ERA was 5.69
After 28 starts, his ERA was 4.98
In September, he had 5 quality starts in six outings.
My point with Noesi is that a debut year like Pineda's is the exception ... not the rule. Some *GREAT* pitchers struggle early to develop consistency. But, the club saw something in Noesi this spring that suggested to them that Noesi was ready to start. Now, I don't know if that was the right call or not. But, I do know that Greg Maddux had an ERA over 5 in his first 200 MLB innings ... and Glavine had a similar rocky start to this MLB career.
For me ... the single item that separates the truly great MLB players from others is how they responded to adversity. There are tons of top prospects who reach the Majors and never had to even ask the question, "Am I really good enough?" They've always been better than the competition. But, when you get knocked down (or around), how do you respond?
If you're Richie Sexson ... once things go bad, you just kind of fold up your tent and slink home. But, for guys like Maddux and Glavine ... when you face that adversity, you work harder. You get mentally tougher. You learn from your mistakes. And, in the long run, that prepares you to face those crunch time moments so much better.
Me? I will always love Maddux more than Clemens. And my namesake, Sandy Koufax ... he endured half a career of unrealized potential before putting it all together. Now Noesi isn't a Koufax ... or even a Maddux. But, the kid had a 1.7 walk rate in the minors. Exactly how bad could his underlying mechanics have actually been for the past 5 years?
Me? I don't think it's possible to walk less than 2 guys a game for 5 years without some underlying foundation of consistency. For me ... the key thing to look at with Noesi over his next 4 or 5 starts, (and I desperately hope the club is not foolish enough to return him to the minors or send him to the pen without another 4 or 5 starts at least), is how does he respond mentally.
This baseball thing is way hard. And maybe Noesi will need another year in the minors to work on something. But, you'll never develop kids who can triumph over adversity unless you give them the opportunities to do so along the way.

4
Taro's picture

Noesi's stock is actually up for me. Didn't think he had that kind of offspeed game in him.
Paxton/Walker are looking even better than advertised so far.
What if Figgin/Ichiro are back to 2009-levels? It completely changes the equation. The Ms can and should try to compete under that scenario. They certainly have enough talent to give both players some regular rest to keep them sharp.

5

The Mariners believed in him enough to request him OVER Ivan Nova - he's gonna get a legit chance to prove them right.
And I'm with you, Sandy - hard to walk nobody with awful mechanics and repeatability. He got some great swings and misses, but man when he gave up hits...ugh.
The moment was too big for him, and you could see it in his body language, in the way he held on to pitches too long...it was messy.
I was cringing by inning 2 every time he let go of the ball just based on how he looked throwing. NOT comfortable. The Rangers treated it like another opening day with their screaming for Darvish and the 40+ thousand faces in the stands, and Noesi was not ready to be an Opening Day starter by any means.
It's not the end of the world, but he still looked more like a reliever out there and Erasmo worked more like a starter, just biorhythmically.
Maybe that's a leftover habit from his pen time with the Yankees. Maybe the Yankees moved him immediately to the pen even with their need for starters because they saw the same thing.
================================
Either way, we'll get to see more of Noesi. I'd take Erasmo as our #3 starter right now, though, so I don't want to see him in the pen in June, y'know? Patience with Noesi doesn't mean Erasmo must be in the bullpen. How long do you keep young Joel Pineiro in the pen?
When you need starters, it really shouldn't be that long...
He proves he can get guys out and you start giving him more innings. Simple as that. So hopefully both men get to prove their mettle in the rotation for a while.
It just feels like the Mariners have missed a golden opportunity to let Erasmo and their Pitchers of the Future (Paxton starts off in AA with 10 K/ 0 BB, Walker follows with 8 K / 1 BB in 5 innings) dawdle.
If Paxton is called up in a few weeks and Erasmo is released from the pen when Ruffin and Furbush are promoted (Furbush to be our lefty when we cut Sherrill like...next week...) then this is overstating things. The Ms are protecting their future without entirely bailing on this year. Fine.
But if the Mariners go for a significant period with Noesi / Beavan / Millwood in the rotation when there are better options, that's gonna be an issue with me.
Because for the first time in a while, the offense is here. Even with Carp AND Guti down and out and our 4 and 5 hitters sputtering, the offense is here. We can actually score 4 runs a game for this staff.
Which means our staff needs to be able to hold down the opponents. If our theme for this year is "no excuses" then the front office needs to accept that ideal too.
~G

6

and given that we have four legit SP prospects knocking on the door (The Big Three plus Ramirez), the issue could be addressed by a time-of-season-rotation. By that I mean, put Ramirez in the rotation now. By May 1st, whichever of your 4 or 5 starters is not cutting it, swap them out for one of your Big Three, the one most MLB-ready. Meanwhile, Big Three numbers 2 and 3 keep preparing in the minors. At some point, when it seems right, move one Ramirez to the pen and bring up another of the Big Three to joing the rotation. Wash, rinse, repeat. No one young SP gets too many innings, and by the end of the season all three will have MLB experience, some rotation experience and some bullpen experience. In addition, you will greatly strengthen your bullpen and starting rotation. By 2013 you're ready to rock 'n' roll.
This will not happen, I'm fairly certain, but it's a creative way of approaching things.

8

You know, SP's are "supposed" to get knocked out once in a while anyway, have a 50-pitch outing that bloats their ERAs but freshens their arms.
30 starts times 5-6 innings, subtract five disaster starts, you can keep a pitcher at 150-170 innings if you believe this to be necessary.
.........
As James said, there isn't a lot of reason to believe in the arbitrary 150-IP limit, but you can't oppose accepted dogma with intuition.

9

Which I'm actually very glad of.  The M's have no use for a 100 ERA+ starting pitcher in the grand scheme of things.  If Noesi is a 80 pitcher now and a 120 pitcher later, that's great news.
Yes he was nervous yesterday.  But IMHO his problems went wayyyyy beyond release point.

10

Already in game 5, Blowers was buying in:  "the offense is being keyed by the veterans Ichiro and Figgins, as it should be."
As we all know, they could fall off the table tomorrow.  But for the first 5 days, they have brought rejuvenated games to the table.  Those haven't been lucky hits.  The scout's eye goes WOW!  THEY ARE SWINGING GREAT!
Ichiro and Figgins have been stars in the past, and they played lousy in lousy circumstances, and now they're playing like stars in fresh circumstances.  It's reasonable to watch and see whether they will play like stars in 2012.  :- )
.............
Hey Taro.  Supposing that Figgins and Ichiro did post 2009 batting lines.  That would change your 2012 equation to .... what?

11

VERY positive. He definitely DOES look rejuvenated. Doc, what seasoning do you recommend for crow? If things continue like this I will be eating it all season.
At least with Figgins my opinion was the same as everybody else. But he too, eyes on, looks like he has recaptured his zeitgeist, not to mention his baseball mojo.

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.