1
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20297199&c_id=mlb
When do we start the MVP talk?
Mariners 3 ....
............
And let's try to follow the Pregame D-O-V Scan as best we can, though the mainframe has a bleary monitor... ye'll be wanting some cyber-biscotti with ye'rre coffee, and as you know, we live to serve...
.
=== Brandon McCarthy ===
The "under" betting line had gone 4-0 in the last four M's-McCarthy games. The game followed script and you can make that 5-0. Little things mattered big in a game like this.
In a scoreless game, Michael Saunders smoked a line drive to RF. Beautiful! He stole second base, too. Saunders for President, or at least for starting center field.
Whoop! Ryan grounded a ball to deeeeeep SS/3B, the play we've talked about all week, and this particular play, Blowers doubted that Cliff Pennington can make. The ML average on this play is 20-30%; Pennington got there more slowly than average.
Saunders takes off for 3B with 0 out?! Pennington flips to 3B and Sogard leisurely cleans his goggles on his left sleeve, waiting for Saunders to slide into the out. A few pitches later, Ryan tries to make up for it by stealing second. He's out too.
That was the ballgame. ... the M's outhit the A's 9-6 and the M's had the only home run. Had Saunders stayed put, the M's had 2 on, 0 out, Figgins bunting, and then Ackley and Ichiro up early in the game. Felix woulda cruised. The game was as tight as it was, only because of this baserunning blunder.
Saunders' high-school mistake should have turned the game from a W to a L. He swung the bat well, by the way. We're describing the action, not calling for Saunders' scalp. It's easier to correct the baserunning stuff, than it is to install a new baseball swing.
.
=== The Lineup ===
Figgins looked no different from 2011. He decelerated the bat through the zone, was in between, swung late on well-located pitches as if he couldn't see them. ... it's one game, but: siiiiigggghhhhhh. I'm moving his chances from 40% to 20%, just based on these five AB's.
.
Dustin Ackley's HR was quite a few rows back to CENTER field, 400 feet away and over a 13' fence. Maybe 10-12 rows back. Blowers called it "a home run to the off field."
His next time up, he swung so hard I thought he'd pull something. That kid is swinging VICIOUSLY this year. Viciously!
Except on his RBI in the 11th. Andrew Carignan was dealing serious cheese, and with Ryan on 2nd, he threw his 95 mph fastball WAYYYY up in the zone. On replay, the catcher had to come out of his crouch a little bit, even with his glove as high as he could reach. ... Ackley got on top of this fastball and lined it up the middle for his second GWRBI :- ) of the night.
Very few ML hitters can get on top of a shoulder-high fastball, and even fewer can do so when they swing as viciously as Ackley does. Here's the video on the RBI single. You'll have to pause it at 0:01 to see the catcher's glove lunge up for the ball. Getting on top of that one, at that velocity? I got your plus-plus HIT tool right here, babe.
Ackley then stole second, too, and came around to score run #3 on Ichiro's hit.
.
Justin Smoak, we suggested you check out his timing. Did you? It was just what the Dr. ordered. Lots of foul balls into the 3B stands, and a hard-hit line drive down the LF line that would be a double about .700 of the time.
Great, great sign. He's staying back, not shrill at all, from the left side.
.
Mike Carp, we were looking at his EYE. He had two or three garbage swings on balls farrrrrr outside the zone. Lousy game for him offensively.
We do hear that he's lost another 10 lbs. and is in perfect shape.
.
Ichiro went 4-for-5, and the out was a humpback line drive deep down the LF line that could easily have been a double.
He swung hard and aggressively, with the checkpoints we've talked about. His hits:
- A hopper off the plate that McCarthy deflected, easy infield hit
- A medium hard one-hopper just a couple steps to SS's right, beaten out for a hit
- A crisp ground ball over second base ... estimated BABIP .350 on that kind of grounder
- A clean line drive up the middle to plate Ackley in the 11th
With Ichiro swinging harder, you'd wondered if he'd be slower out of the box. Nada. Especially the hard one-hopper to Pennington, he got down the line like the 2001 Ichiro. I didn't see him beat one of those out all in 2011 ... it was as if he wanted to address the entire BABIP issue in one game.
He swiped second, easily, and in general I couldn't tell the difference between his movements now, and five years ago. I mean, certainly there would be a little difference, but like IceX said, he looked lean, mean, and ready to go.
.
=== Overall ===
The M's were facing an elite starting pitcher, and battled him gamely -- only 3 strikeouts, lots of balls hit to the opposite field, several possible doubles that found leather or the warning track. The big baserunning error helped McCarthy out, as well.
Grade incomplete. Game one, they competed, and managed to find a way to win a pitchers' duel between Cy Young candidates.
.
Comments
2
Its great to see Ichiro back to his old game and looking quick. Seems that he abandoned the Ackley swing, which is a relief.
Give Ichiro some regular day-offs and its possible hes sharp all season long.
3
The error was "eh" but he was rushing to get a runner. He played a couple of funky hops fine, like the bounced throw from Olivo. There's not a lot of astroturf around to play on anymore, so it's not an experience our young kids tend to be familiar with.
But he's pretty brilliant with a bat. I agree with you, ditch Figgins and that timid swing ASAP. Especially with the aggressive intent that Seager shows at the plate. Saunders looked good at the plate, even with the bonehead baserunning move. We should have won easily against a good pitcher, but I'm glad we fought it out.
Already I feel like our MOTO could take some pressure off other folks in the lineup. Montero had an off-the-label fly out that was "shortened wrists" from being crushed, Smoak looked good even if the results weren't there, and the Ackley/Ichiro duo performed perfectly. And I was happy to see Smoak as our cleanup guy. I didn't want to see Montero there yet - he's got enough pressure.
Carp was pressing. He swung at some stuff that he really should not have. A breaking ball in off the plate that wasn't CLOSE and he whiffed a foot over the top of it.
But he should settle down nicely. Olivo getting an infield base hit was pretty funny.
After Day One the only batter I hate is Figgins. If we went to war with the other 8 positions filled as-is the rest of the year I'd feel pretty good about it.
Not playoffs-good but certainly competitive-good.
Playoffs-good would require more TOR pitchers in the lineup. I'm waiting to see how Noesi does, and Erasmo from the pen.
And whether we'll add one TOR arm or two as the season goes on. But for now? Mariner baseball looks interesting again.
Even if we couldn't get Felix a win, which raised echoes of the last couple of years. That'll change - hopefully as soon as game 3.
~G
4
1. Ack Attack! Get used to it.
2. Felix' poor previous start in Arizona was forgotten sometime during the bottom of the first inning. This one was Felix being Felix.
3. Unfortunately, it was also the M's offense being the M's offense. Still, McCarthy was being McCarthy too.
4. Who was that Yo-Yo yesterday who reiterated for the umpteenth time his skepticism about Ichiro's prospect for a return to stardom?
5. Ryan's play up the middle (can't remember the inning, you know the one I'm talking about) to turn away an A's scoring opportunity made the game worth watching all by itself. In fact, considering his leadoff double in the 11th he slots into the tier right below Felix, Ackley, and Ichiro as heroes of the game. Without that play, which I'm not sure any other shortstop makes, we don't make it to extra innings.
6. I napped twice during the day to be sure I was as fresh as possible for the big game. In order not to disturb my wife's sleep, I went to bed on the sofa at 10 pm and slept fitfully until 2:30 am, then watched the game with alacrity. But it is difficult for me to watch entire games anymore, and I began to run out of gas in the late innings. I says to myself, "Self, what in the WORLD are you doing? NO MORE 3am games for you!" I hung in there through the 10th inning, but my wife woke up about then so I left the DVR running and fell into bed for a few hours sleep. It was a treat to wake up and immediately enjoy the game-winning 11th inning. I don't think I'm going to watch tonight's Game Two live.
5
Wilhelmsen (check out the nasty curve to Cespedes 26 seconds in)
Ichiro
Montero (coupla near-misses to RF)
6
... that the only difference was his sense of urgency, do you? I'd kind of hate to think that his 2011 tanked merely because the Seattle Mariners sucked the competitive spirit out of even him.
On the other hand, if competitive MLB baseball can bring back the Tokyo Dome Ichiro, that's +3 or +4 WAR to the M's.
7
I like the take on Carp, "pressing." Yeah. The swings looked like pressing, as opposed to "go deep at all costs."
Excellent bullet list, which I gotta get back to tonight :- )
8
The 6th-10th innings were painful to watch and that heightened the pleasure (Steve Martin, Little Shop of Horrors)...
Same comment as for G goes for the Daddy-O... OK, I'll bite. What's your projection for HOF-san this season? :- )
9
Awesome game last night. One fitting for Opening Day.
From the first base line, it looked like a classic Ichiro night. You have to remember that field turf plays faster than grass. Even with that, Ichiro collects 2 infield hits.
Ackley showed off what he had in a real game after his gem against the Yomiuri Giants. Everything he hit was up the middle or the other way. And that game winner was crazy enough.
Felix... You know, he didn't break 149 kph (93 mph) on the dome gun much, but from the stands you couldn't tell he was slow. Obviously, the A's didn't either. You know your Ace has grown up when you don't have to worry about runners in scoring position anymore. CLASSIC duel.
Wilhelmsen and League were both 149+ and brutal on the A's. The two of them were electric from the stands. THIS is what separates MLB and NPB baseball... The pure speed of the MLB fastball.
The rest of it... Carp in the outfield (not worried), Smoak & Montero at the plate (just feel out of sync right now)... It's always a nice feeling on the first day of the season.
P.S. Figgins, you got the bunt down, but geeeez you stink.
10
Wow! Everyone's so slim! I couldn't believe how fit Felix looks!
11
... that does raise Q's about his velocity. Normally he throws 94 pitch after pitch, effortlessly, like a metronome.
Of course, even if he is 92 now (which isn't established) that's not necessarily tragic. Most Clemens-, Seaver- types throttle down the velocity as they get older. The Verlanders are the exceptions.
It's possible - 20% chance? - that we now see a career transition for Felix, as he settles in with a plus fastball rather than a plus-plus fastball. Clemens did the same.
12
This Mariners administration has its young players buying in - and competing with one another. That's big.
13
I don't put much stock in my ability to project. It's nothing scientific, I just go by what my eyes tell me, based on years of watching baseball as an educated fan rather than an expert. My eyes told me Ichiro had lost his edge as a ballplayer last year. He literally was unable to execute many things he previously had been able to do, and he was somewhat bewildered by the experience. All of a sudden he had to face failure on a scale that was beyond his ken to this point. I don't know if it was a slowing of the reflexes, a deterioration of eyesight, just enough to make the difference between success and failure. I guess the real question is what was behind it. I don't know. Was it motivations or was it a skills deterioration? We'll find out this year. Last night, he clearly was both motivated and able to execute, but it is a long season, and he will not always have the special factors that made last night so motivating.
I must admit that all these questions are receding for me a bit. Today, March 28th, was my birthday, but a few minutes after my post to which you responded, I got a call that ended with me taking my mother-in-law from her Memory Care home to the hospital ER, where I spent most of the day. She ended up being admitted to the Critical Care Unit with pneumonia and congestive heart failure, and when we left her this evening she was in critical condition. I'll be back tomorrow morning. We're probably seeing her last days.
The Lord saw fit to bring a special blessing on my birthday, however, because our two grown daughters came to visit grandma at the hospital and I got to see them when otherwise their work would have prevented me from doing so. Also, by his provision my son was home sick today, so I had a car to do what I had to do, which is not normal. Like Robinson Crusoe (a book I am currently re-reading), perspective is everything, and if we have eyes to see it we have much cause for rejoicing and thanksgiving even when events are difficult, for God has built marvelous provision into his creation. Despite its fracture because of sin, yet his forebearing grace can still be discerned.
I am most tired tonight, but I can rest in Christ my Lord. Those who are so inclined please pray for my mother-in-law and my wife. My thoughts are not on Game Two tonight.
14
There's no way Felix was throwing 91-93 all night. In the second inning, his pitches had visible smoke trails. :) Don't know how accurate the Tokyo Dome gun typically is...but it's clearly not the same as the guns in the states. :)
15
Recreation is --- > refreshment after, and towards, more important things. By definition, it recedes into the background for you.
Have prayed for your family. If you want to chat about non-baseball things, I'm always at jeffclarke@comcast.net.
Take care amigo.