I've been thinking about Jose's HR potential and people's concern about his power potential, so I went and looked at his HR numbers at hittracker. So Russell Branyan hits his homers, on average ~10% farther than Jose and even Gutierrez even hits his 3% farther on average. But distance isn't the key, how hard the ball is hit is the key. Jose's average HR leaves the bat going 102.6 MPH, identical to Gutierrez and only 2.5% slower than Branyan. It's the trajectory of Jose's homeruns that generate shorter than average distance. Stated differently, Jose's homers leave his bat going 1% slower than MLB average, but they travel 5% less than average.
While i don't see him developing 30+ HR power, I could see him consistently hitting 20-25 HR a year.
To lessen the risk of (further) alienating Da Champ ;- ) we'll emphasize what we liked here...
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=== Pitch Mix ===
French threw a really baffling 30/30/30 mix of fastballs, curves and changeups. He changed locations with them too.
I watched the game from the A's point of view -- as though rooting for the A's -- and tried to predict the pitches. Verrrrry tough. Here would be a high-away fastaball, and next a breaking pitch that broke just a bit too far inside to hit, and here's a change four inches outside...
Not taking anything away from Luke French, I'm starting to wonder if Rob Johnson doesn't have a real knack for confusing hitters. He's certainly confusing me.
Verrrrry impressed by the unpredictability of the sequences, and French's windup and release doesn't give anything away. Nice deception out there.
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=== Command ===
It also seemed like French did a good job staying out of the middle of the plate, while still throwing strikes (only 1 measly walk against the patient A's).
He had 4k against 1bb last night, this following a 6k, 3bb performance against the (equally-weak) Indians. That's 10k and 4bb in his last 12 innings.
Change speeds, change locations, throw strikes -- French was a walking Ray Miller ad last night.
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And it's a good thing that he had his location: he gave up 2 homers and would have given up 4 if Cust's homer hadn't been two feet foul. (Cust hit an 87 fastball off the facade, OVER the Hit It Here cafe. The umpires spent several minutes reviewing it on film, since it went over the foul pole and was hard to read. That would have counted for two home runs.)
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=== Result ===
The lad did, after all, win the game, his second straight W. His 2009 ERA stands at 3.92. :- )
Jim Street on MLB.com, I notice, has declared French a victory for Capt. Jack. Let's hope.
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=== Can't Resist Dept. ===
With all respect to one of our favorite posters, we can't say that we're any more converted than we were before the game. Arguments would revolve around the mushiness of the stuff generally, and comparisons to Garrett Olson and Jason Vargas.
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After pitch #52, he threw only 3 pitches faster than 87 mph, and came out of the game after 86 pitches. Interesting that Wok can't wait to get French and Fister out of the game for his short relievers.
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But, French is showing the very strong mound presence that we commend so much in Fister. Maybe some guys just know how to pitch...
DaddyO listed out a fascinating little yellow sticky note with traits common to all the ballplayers that Capt Jack has brought in, and makeup was one of them IIRC. Zduriencik seems to put a huge thumb on the scale for intelligence and competitiveness, and French may be the reductio ad absurdum of this.
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=== The Key Homer ===
After Lopez' 18th homer the other night, we opined that it looked like Lopez had called the homer play in the huddle, so to speak. It was a 2-0 pitch, Lopez sunk his weight, got under the ball, and simply fungo'ed it into the bullpen.
After the game, he gave Angie Mentink an interesting comment: "That was a 2-0 pitch, so I was looking to hit a home run."
Which made me sit up in my chair, since this is the Earl Recipe -- battle the pitchers tough until you have the count your way, and then try NOT "to hit the ball hard somewhere," but try to hit a home run.
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Lopez' #19 homer was exactly the same thing. He got a 2-0 pitch, sunk his weight, got under the ball, and lofted a fungo fly ball into the bullpen as though hitting balls to outfielders at 5:30 pm.
This one was deep, landing back against the bullpen fence . The vid is on MLB.com's GameDay.
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Nobody seems to suggest that all of Jose's HR's go to the same place, because he's doing it on purpose!
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
I agree with 20-25 HRs. I just think that would be the upper end for him in Safeco (which is what he'll do this year).
He should sit between 15-25 HRs in his prime.
I didn't see the game, but I'm just glad that hes starting to throw that slider again. The past two starts hes really starting to use that pitch (after strangely abandoning it since being traded to Seattle), and the results are starting to rebound.
My concern is why Adair felt the need to tinker with that pitch and make French a fastball-changeup pitcher in the first place.. How did the slider look yesterday?
The slider looked fine by normal standards, but not the shellshocking hammer that he used against the M's...
Considering that all of us considered it his signature weapon, it *is* baffling why Adair would move him away from it...
Once he shows it, he owns it, though... the pitch will rise to the top for him, I'm sure...
The MPH is much better than the trajectory, relatively speaking.
What a catch. Huh.
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20-25 isn't much of a stretch considering he's at 19 already this year ... ya, I realize you're saying, consistently...