When we 'promote' a post to the front page, and chop the lob back atcher, it isn't to emphasize disagreement.
As you know, we're in a bit of raise-the-visibility mode at SSI, amigos... quality volume helps with that... again, we have the privilege of a sleek, stable platform with no premiums or even advertising, so we appreciate your indulgence on the scaffolding :- )
When we move a letter / post to the front page, it's because the idea contained is weighty enough to stimulate fresh thought ... if you'll take the 'promotions' as compliments, and have at me in the comments attached, I'll be much obliged.. - ed.
.
FLIP re: Hardy's LD% ...
Be careful about line drive rate. Home run hitters have pedestrian to bad line drive rates. This includes Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols last year... So the question is whether or not JJ Hardy will have a successful future as a flyball hitter.
...........
CHOP: Am not going to hang my hat on LD% in a vacuum. Agreed.
However, JJ Hardy's FB's and HR's did not rise as his LD%'s went down. Hardy's GB's were all over the map, randomly, and actually a bit higher the last two years.
As it happens, I was interested in that precise factor in reviewing Hardy. If he was learning to turn on the ball and sock it over the fence, fine... didn't look like that's what happened, though. The LD's weren't replaced by long fly balls.
Jose Lopez is an example of a guy who did learn to turn on the ball for power: check his rising FB rate. His LD%'s did not fall, though.
Cross-reference JLo's GB/FB trend against his LD (non-)trend, and then cross-reference Hardy's. I think it's pretty easy to see that Hardy's catastrophic LD% isn't due to his learning to hit a bunch of homers.
By the way, Hardy's LD% fell to 15% in '08 and then to 13% in '09.
Average is what, 18-20%, and only about a dozen hitters each year manage to fall below 16%. ... if Hardy had a "low" LD%, like 17%, that would be one thing. Hardy's line drives are a 220/140 blood pressure reading on the heartbeat of his pitcher battles.
...
FLIP:
My take is that as a moderate power RH hitter, his upside with the bat in an M's uniform is 2009 Jose Lopez, while his down side is Jeff Cirillo. I don't trade a real asset for him, so no Morrow for Hardy trade if I'm in charge. Not that I'm right, it just seems that Morrow and Hardy have similar down side, while Hardy doesn't have much upside.
My second take is that you have to have a shortstop and I don't want it to be Josh Wilson.
...
CHOP: A range from Cirillo-to-Lopez would be plenty for me, considering that he's a plus defensive SS. If we could get that, for moderate trade value and $5M, I'm in.
On the second take, I couldn't agree more, which is why am softening on Jack Wilson.
Good stuff,
Dr D
I should have qualified that if you see a drop in LD% strongly correlated with a rise in HR/FB it's indicative of a change in approach, more than a sign of decline. Looking at Hardy, I think this happened from 2005-2007. His 2009, however, was a total train wreck.
If it takes a real resource to get Hardy, I give Jack Wilson his 8 million and hope he stays healthy, and sign an Everett type as my utility infielder.