Kibitz Korner: Wak Watch (2)

Not much left to say after this 4-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins. The Mariners are a team in freefall. There appear to be no answers to what has ailed them all season. Tonight, against a so-so starting pitcher, the Mariners had three hits in eight innings. They got one more in the ninth.

And the day after, it got worse ... what's the next number in this sequence?  Franklin Gutierrez throws down his bat running out a grounder, it flips up and impales him?  How could it get worse?

Taro's on an OPS+ count... keep it comin' bro...

In July, the Mariners hit .219/.283/.308 -- you read it right, a Major League team that spent an entire (hot-weather) month with a team OPS in the 500's.  That's over a "sample size" (SIC!) of > 1,000 at-bats.

  • .219/.283/.308 - Mariners, July, 2010
  • .262/.316/.333 - Willie Bloomquist, lifetime

When Willie Bloomquist x9 would have been a serious upgrade, you've entered the Joe Bob Briggs realm of watching a team because it's bad.

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In the eighth, Michael Saunders managed to bloop a double between some fielders. The next guy, Josh Bard, flied out to left without advancing the runner. Then, Matt Tuiasosopo grounded out to third without advancing the runner. And Jack Wilson ended the inning on a flyout.

"Words don't really describe what's going on right now,'' Saunders said of the team's July play. "Obviously, we're not winning ballgames right now. We're doing our best to keep what's past in the past and trying to move forward.''

You know we love youse :- ) but if there is ANYbody in Seattle who still cannot perceive the effect of (negative) team chemistry, it's time to watch a ballgame.

You think these guys are going out and getting 3-hit every night just because the Strat-O-Matic dice are falling weird 1,030 at-bats in a row?  If you had the light bulb off before, turn it on now.   Players have good seasons and bad seasons depending on their sports psychology.

..............

Was the M's lineup dubious coming into 2010?  Somewhat.   But this is because of chemistry:

  • 73 OPS+ - Chone Figgins
  • 64 OPS+ - Jose Lopez
  • 89 OPS+ - Franklin Gutierrez
  • 76 OPS+ - Milton Bradley
  • High OPS+ - exactly nobody
  • 76 OPS+ - team

When all of your players are having bad years at the same time, that's not Pascal's Triangle.  That's (rancid) sports psychology.  Sports psyche which imploded, BTW, one April weekend in Chicago.

.................

Fans judge managers by in-game tactics, because that's what's easy and fun to argue about.  We watch the ballgames.  We're invested in them.  We know a lot about what the decision entailed.

But Bill James, wisely, did not include these in-game tactics when "rating" (sic) managers in his book on them.  He catalogued whether a manager liked the bunt, whether he used more RP's than average, etc.

But most in-game tactics can be argued many different ways -- and there are usually behind-the-scenes factors the pundits can't perceive.  Did a guy not pinch-hit because he was hung over?  Because there was too much political capital burned in the move?  Because the benchie was being disciplined?  It's not Strat-O-Matic.

Mangers DO have to be good at things like:

  • ID'ing the right young players (e.g. Saunders, Fister, Vargas vs Olson, Langerhans* etc)
  • Technically instructing players (e.g. Vargas' conversion to a 2-pitch guy)
  • Keeping the ballclub in the fight, focused, playing hard

Wak has worked very hard at trying to get his players to pay attention, but unfortunately, they're simply not right now.  Whether it's fair or not, the harsh reality imposes itself.

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Part 3

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