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Ka-Ching! Oooooops, refund please
As of 2:17 pm, the M's turn down Montero, Adams and a 3rd prospect (possibly McAllister), based on questions about an ANKLE on the #2 player?!
Five scenarios:
1. Capt Jack is remorselessly wringing the sponge dry on the Yankees and, shortly, we'll see a reconfig on the package (Sherman said the NYY even talked 4 players with Montero in one structure).
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2. Sell the sizzle, not the steak, dept: somebody called with an offer that actually does blow away the Yankees' offer (e.g. Smoak and Scheppers).
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3. Jack, reading the terrain like Bobby Fischer on a monster rampage through the Candidates' final, realizes he can do even better (lots of teams are offering ransoms).
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4. Zduriencik, showing very poor judgment, decides on some other package that has a tad more overall value but canyons less difference-making content (Min offers Ramos, Hicks and a couple other guys).
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5. The M's, paralyzed with fear and Big Three involvement in the negotiatons, break down in the office, and the execs start arguing over trivia, and blow the Montero deal.
.............
Capt Jack is NOT known for his very poor judgment, so I'll pollyannistically hope that #1 is closer to the truth. #2 is too much even for SSI to dream over. SSI is steamed enough over the Lee interview that a #5 scenario would land a body blow to its zeal for this front office.
It better be. SSI would deal Lee and two other players for Jesus Montero even steven. You've got to wrap that up or show us the money on something jaw-dropping. :- )
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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Per Morosi: Justin Smoak, 1B; Blake Beavan, RHP; Josh Lueke, RHP; Matt Lawson, 2B/OF http://twitter.com/jonmorosi
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Capt Jack likes the LH and OBP'ness of Smoak in Safeco.
How many of you amigos bet the over? >:-}
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Beavan: RHP, AA (called up to AAA, hasn't pitched there yet), 21, 6-7, 250, 0.94 BB/9 (Fister-esque?)
Lueke: RHP, AAA, 25, 6-5, 220, massive K/BB ratios (like 5, 6, 7)
Lawson: 2b, AA, 24, pretty good OBP, strikes out a lot
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Beavan's in the very broad Doug Fister basket, a saber guy without great tools but with results and pitchability... a paragraph in the other post
We note that Jack consistently goes sabr with the P's and tools with the hitters.
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After Smoak, those are three guys sounding a LOT like the Vargas, Carp etc sweeteners that we got with Gutierrez...
Not shellshocking names, but you look up a year later and they are helping your club...
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Yep... Z seems to value quantity to a certain degree, almost in and of itself. Probably because he realizes, you don't always know which prospect will pop. Remove the uber-talents (the A-Rods, Strasburgs, etc) from the equation, and who knows which players will jump a plateau?
Meanwhile, it's a flesh wound to the Rangers' farm system. That helps too.
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Taking Smoak from the Rangers is HUGE plus.
Figure Smoak as around a 4 WAR player and thats a 8 win swing between Seattle and Texas.
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Beavan is like Fister with a better fastball. Lueke is a high probability shot at an electric reliever.
Lawson I'm not familiar with, but sounds like a utility type.
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Though, let's presume that we and the Rangers can get 2.0, 2.5 WAR first basemen at will and I'm not averse to pencilling Smoak in for 5 WAR via Safeco-adjusted stats, so I'll call your bet at a 5-6 win swing. Still huge.
Chances of the Rangers signing Lee? How in the world could they, being in bankruptcy?
Smoak for 2.5 months of Lee. Slap me silly.
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What am I saying! The M's can get a 2.0 first baseman at will?! :- )
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Getting a league-minimum 2.0 WAR guy is tough though. Chris Davis has a very high bust%.
We pretty much whiffed at a 1-2 WAR 1B despite spending $3.5mil this offseason.
League mimimum 4 Wins. Its a pretty huge swing in the standings. :-)
12
You're right.