Q. Did the mainframe crunch Justin Smoak's (high) line-drive % as a threat to his HR production?
A. No, which was why we studiously avoided this interesting discussion.
Young "Naturals" will choose to dial up their swings and loft the ball, as they "get their arms around the game" so to speak.
This is axiomatic to us Shandlerites. We watch for young superstars with good heads on their shoulders, like, for instance, Justin Smoak. These cagey hitters do what they're capable of doing -- including stroking the ball up the middle when they're overmatched.
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Q. Have a precedent?
A. I can't think of a ton of examples offhand, but there are dozens I've seen in the Forecasters that I'm forgetting now.
Take Ken Griffey Jr., for instance. There is no GB-LD-FB data from the 1990's, but here are his AVG's, K's, and HR's from ages 19 to 23:
Even without the LD-FB data specifically, it's as obvious as a coal pile in a ballroom what Griffey did from ages 19 to 24.
And, at the time, he told us what he did: against tough pitchers -- which was all of them, to him, in 1991 -- he focused on getting the bat on top of the ball, on making contact.
"Get on top of it" was a catchphrase that Junior used constantly, back when he was The Natural.
............
In 1993 on, as the game slowed down for Junior, he simply chose to swing upward more, and to pull the ball. So, you saw a mammoth talent hit 22 homers for his first four seasons, and then decide to start hitting 40-50 a year from then on.
Suppose you had used Junior's LD rates, in 1990, to project his peak homers?
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Q. What about the fact that Junior hit homers in the minors, and Smoak hit fewer in his minor league career?
A. What minor league career are we talking about here? He didn't have one.
Hey, even if Smoak had decided to throttle down as a teenager, it wouldn't change the point being made here: batters choose to attack, or not.
But :shrug: Justin Smoak hit 62 homers in 739 college at-bats. It wasn't an issue. You were always talking about a 40-homer man with Justin Smoak.
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Q. What's going on the last two weeks?
A. Caught only a coupla games. But what you are seeing, is that Smoak is reading the pitches now.
You can watch a hitter react late, or react early.
Last time around, Smoak was "in between" -- desperately, shril-ly out in front of breaking pitches, and fearfully, defensively arm-swinging against FB's.
Now? Smoak's reacting real early, "shadowing" the pitch trajectory with his CG, "timing" his shoulder load to FB's and offspeed well.
He's seeing the ball. That's all.
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Q. Anything else?
A. Here is our earlier 3-article breakdown of the majestic beauty that is Justin Smoak's swing. Just for smiles.
Smoak is going to be the next Justin Morneau, if he doesn't become the next Stan Musial. Long live Capt. Jack.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Considering it's only October and that we're in front of a long winter just to talk I suppose by next March he's going to be a clone of Ted Williams. Not to mention the M's have already a couple of future HOF in middle infield (Ackley & Franklin), a 5-tool superman in the outfield (Halman) and several options as the new Goose Gossage to close games. So what's the problem ?
That your sneering would be taken (a bit) more seriously if you had the guts to sign your name.
And to back up your opinions, as opposed to casting insults and then scurrying away before anybody knocks your cheap slop out of the key.
But you don't, so it isn't.
Your friend,
Jeff
I am not sure I'd peg Smoak as Justin Morneau...but I am not concerned like Taro and a few others were about his swing. I think all ballplayers' swings look goofy when they're struggling to see the ball and trying to adjust to a new team and overmatched a tad in their youth. If you get caught out in front of a slider, YOUR SWING WILL LOOK LONG (beacuse you'll be trying to slow it down in mid-swing and your body will fly out and your arms will be left looping around) and if you're way late on a fastball...YOUR SWING WILL STILL LOOK LONG! (because now you're only 1/2 way through the swing when the ball is on you and it visually looks like you're late because your bat is slow or your swing is long).
When Smoak guessed right and swung aggressively...even in that first cuppa in Seattle, his swing did not look any longer than Ken Griffey Jr's nor any slower, nor any less mechanically flawed. Taro is just wrong here, IMHO...but time will tell. I still think Smoak is a golden prospect.
If you get caught out in front of a slider, YOUR SWING WILL LOOK LONG (beacuse you'll be trying to slow it down in mid-swing and your body will fly out and your arms will be left looping around) and if you're way late on a fastball...YOUR SWING WILL STILL LOOK LONG! (because now you're only 1/2 way through the swing when the ball is on you and it visually looks like you're late because your bat is slow or your swing is long).
Ya. To say nothing of looking off-balance on garbage swings.
:cpoints:
It says here that Smoak has one of the best swings in baseball, and the little tweak that he's used is IMHO most likely a sports-psych "reboot" button.
Smoak's swing looked long even on HRs. Hes looked better since being promoted.
I've always said I think Smoak would be a better fit for opposite field hitting and hes been showing that recently.
Hes looking a lot more likely to reach his upside, although I still feel hes more of a mid 800s type in his prime than 900 OPS type.
Always better to have a debate than a groupthink. Keep it comin' champ.
That lightbulb actually went on for me last year when I noticed that Guti's swing looked long to me when he was slumping in April and then super-short when he was hot in June.
So keep it changed and bright amigo :- )
Emotional poise, or shrill-ness, enters in here too. We remember Adrian Beltre's finishes on one knee...
Ms seemed to recognize the problem with Smoak though and worked to fix it in AAA.
It could have mostly a mental problem. His swing certainly looks better now.
If the tweak got Smoak to the ball a skosh faster, it might have triggered a comfort level, even if only relevant for that particular bridge...
Both guys crossed .900 OPS just twice before age 30 and hung out in the mid-.800s for most of those prime years. Morneau has been a 37 2B / 31 HR bat with 68 walks per 162, and Tino was a 29 2B / 27 HR bat with 62 walks per 162. If they're the "mid-800s in his prime" types then I have no problem adding that to my team.
I expect that to be Smoak's level, between those two stat lines. But Adrian Gonzalez is at 35 and 32 with 78 walks. Fielder is at 32 and 37 with 89 walks.
The power numbers aren't changing from Morneau to A-Gone and Fielder - just the BBs. If Smoak can walk like Gonzalez and Fielder and Choo and hit 30/35, he's a monster. If he walks like Tino and Morneau, then he will "merely" be a great lineup addition and future All-Star instead of one of the greatest hitters in the league.
In limited at-bats this year, here are Smoak's 162-game projections: 20 2B / 21 HR, 74 walks. And that includes his "I don't remember how to take a walk" stint when he first got here.
I think he's a 30/30 man going forward, but he ALREADY looks to walk more than Tino and Morneau. Which is a good thing...and gives a good shot of getting to that .900 OPS line more often, or at least making his floor projections that much higher.
~G
I don't think the Morneau comp is far-fetched. Morneau is a guy who uses all fields effectively with the most production towards his pull-side. Smoak is starting to become better at waiting on the ball recently.
Smoak will probably strike out more (less AVG), but BB more as well resulting in similar OBPs.
Morneau had a career 851 OPS before this season. Thats doable IMO.
Prince Fielder has a .280 career average and strikes out 130 times a year.
Jim Edmonds has a .284 career average and strikes out 140 times a year.
Justin Morneau has a .286 career average and strikes out 100 times a year.
Maybe the projected extra 40 Ks will drop Smoak's average enough that his extra walks will only make up the difference, but it's not a lock. He could very well post Morneau's average AND walk more. It's not like Morneau is a .320 hitter or something.
~G
I was a little annoyed with Anonymous too with his comments. I have not seen Smoak play much at all this year but I can remember reading a story from Peter Gammons when Smoak played in the Cape Cod League and Gammons could not say enough about this kid.
How is he on defense?
John
Smoak seems more of a .270 guy to me, maybe around 25 HR power, but more BBs. You never know though.
A guy can hit .300 with 70 points worth of walks and 95 strikeouts ...
Or hit .270 with 100 points worth of walks, and 135 strikeouts...
Choosing to let the count go deeper will up your strikeout count, push your AVG down but you will get it back in OBP (and HR, since you're getting your pitch)...
Ya, and if he slugs .480~ish (.210 IsoP) thats already a good player. Looks like he'll hit some double mixed in with the HRs.
If he hits higher than .270 than you start reaching the mid-upper 800s in OPS.