Index to the writeups on Josh Lueke, just after the Mariners traded for him in July:

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POTD Josh Lueke I - Lueke being a virtual lock to star as an ML impact reliever. 

His [K/BB/HR] intersected with his [pitching template] putting him in a category with short men like Bard, Marmol, and Gregerson, and most of all Jeff Nelson.

That's not a ROOGY profile, contrary to popular assumption, just because the nuclear pitch is a slider.  It's a stud-setup man profile, or a closer profile.

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POTD Josh Lueke II - In which we explain the specific reasons why Lueke's template does not profile as ROOGY. 

And opine that, as a short man, his changeup is unnecessary and may even be harmful.

And ask for an explanation as to why Lueke isn't a starting pitcher.

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POTD Josh Lueke III - The personal baggage analyzed here. 

SSI predicted that (1) in baseball generally, Lueke would be fine because he had been judged and punished already, but that (2) with Chuck Armstrong personally, Lueke was a dead man walking.

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=== Since July 28 ===

Lueke, assigned to the M's double-A club, threw a sickening 14:0 control ratio in 7 innings.

Promoted to AAA, he fanned 18 men, walked 5, and allowed 0 homers in 17 innings.  He pitched even better against LH hitters than he did against RH'ers in AAA -- fanning 8 men, walking 2, with 0 ER.  In effect, he threw a 10-strikeout shutout, in a full game's worth of pitching against a purely LH lineup.

There's no new information here for SSI (I didn't see Lueke pitch) other than that, if anything, his fastball has even another two feet on it, than everybody thought.

There had been some chance, 10%, 20%, that Lueke would fail the transitions across orgs and levels.  That didn't occur.  Lueke is cemented as a blue-chip, top-100 prospect.

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Again with the question:  why would this big kid not be starting.  He mangles leftes.

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What do these post-Texas results mean?  ::shrug:: They put the finishing touches onto the assessment that nothing on-field is going to stop Josh Lueke.

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=== 2011 ===

If we predicted in July that Lueke would be powerflushed by Chuck Armstrong, you can imagine what we assume, now that Lueke has become a "scandal" in Seattle.

We presume that Lueke will eventually move on to another ML org and pitch at least as well as, say, Rafael Soriano, while the Mariners cast about with Sean Whites and David Aardsmas trying to find a team that can lose fewer than 100 games.

I still don't get it,though:  why hasn't Armstrong sent Lueke back to Texas?  They've got a standing offer, made in public.

You say, flush him this winter?  Fine:  but why not now, when it will have the effect of removing the static?

Only motivation I can think of:  they don't want to give the Times the satisfaction.  We don't say that ironically.  It's the only motivation I can think of.

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Maybe I'm being unfair; maybe they're showing the same altruism that they did when Milton Bradley marched out of the clubhouse during a big-league ballgame.

And, of course, there's the possibility that the Mariners intend to use Josh Lueke -- that he will be part of the team with which they win their next* pennant.

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Part 2

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