Speaking of defense, D-Wak says he loves it so much he might move Lopez to 1B for good. I was intrigued by that notion when we had slick-fielding and interesting lefty bat Luis Valbuena, and didn’t have Branyan-Shelton on the roster.
Hopefully he's trying to bluff his bosses into buying him a stick? :- )
Here's a good article from John Hickey on D-Wak's "bluff."
D-Wak is supposed to be pretty smart. He's got to see the problemos with putting Jose's bat at first.
Start by understanding that Dr. D is staunchly against the idea of putting a league-average hitter at a corner position so as to go along with the local infatuation with defense. (Note that we didn't say that we are against FIXING the defense.)
I'm not sympathetic to the idea of clear and concrete sacrifices of offense for ephemeral, possible gains in defense. But that said, here is one way that such a move could work:
(1) If Jose Lopez is about to assume his rightful place as Miguel Tejada's batting heir. Check his splits from 2008:
1H - .298 .318 .412
2H - .294 .327 .487 (with a *lower* BABIP than 1H)
Lopez was 24 years of age last season -- i.e., with plenty of room to grow from here. Miguel Tejada, his last four years in Oakland, hit just about that .294/.327/.487 for the A's.
JLo hit 12 homers in the second half -- playing only 67 games. He might hit one every five or six games from now on. As John Benson would put it, the ast time we saw Lopez, he in fact WAS hitting like Miguel Tejada.
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(2) if JLo is going to be a tremendous defensive first baseman.
You can't usually cut off as many runs from 1B as you can from, say, SS, because the SS gets 2.5 times as many baseballs hit that way.
But then again, a great defensive 1B might have a differential at his position that is much larger than a SS can obtain compared to the waterbugs he is competing with. 1B Ozzie Smith's range might be so much larger than Paul Konerko's, that he saves almost as many more hits at 1B as he does at SS. I dunno. That's your hope, anyway.
I suppose that JLo might get into his second baseman's crouch, scamper around the far-right sector of the infield and cut off a ton of hits.
*BP's RATE had JLo at 100 for his 13 games last year, which is (1) a very shallow dataset, (2) wouldn't matter even if it were a sound metric, since JLo has yet to learn the position, and (3) is a better number than no number at all.
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(3) If you find a second baseman you like. Atlanta's supposedly on the phone about a Kelly Johnson for Brandon Morrow deal ...
Hickey quotes D-Wak as saying,
"We're looking to see if there is a plus-plus defensive second baseman out there," Wakamatsu said. "Then if we move Jose to first base, and he can defend there and make us above average on the right side, that would be good. That's the whole focus -- can we defend?
"Look at Tampa Bay. Look at what (shortstop Jason) Bartlett did for that team last year. They had some phenomenal players already, but sometimes it's that one player in a key position that makes things work."
So most of online Seattle ought to be pleased about the huge emphasis on defense. If Silva and Washburn are going to throw 40% of the SP innings, I'm not going to complain about it either.
Kelly Johnson ought to fill the order for a "plus-plus" defensive second baseman. Though Sandy can correct me on this one, Atlanta is supposed to want top-flight pitching in return. And on which second basemen are out there who are better choices than KJ.
On second thought, how about a 40-homer man for first and let JLo do his Tejada thing in the middle infield? And that way, we wouldn't even have to deal a Brandon Morrow. :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
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image: http://marinerds.com/pictures/062607/168-Lopez.JPG
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Actually, Kelly Johnson is among the worst defensive second basemen in baseball right now...I saw a few Braves games last year and everyone was talking about how bad he was in the field.
If you get Kelly Johnson...he'd better be your first baseman and not JLo
But I think the Mariners were thinking more along the lines of Orlando Hudson, Jerry Hariston Jr. or Adam Kennedy
No kidding? Huh.
I know diddly about the NL. Was just going off his 111 rate http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/johnske05.php and his above-average range factors http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/johnske05.shtml .
Seriously? KJ has good RF's but is a terrible defender?
Hm... Pinto's PMR, my fave metric, had him at 98.25 http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030078.php while UZR blames KJ for -18 runs.
UZR is very popular, but it's got some of those guys for + 40, 50 runs and some for -40, 50 runs (some because of small numbers of games projected to 150 games). Not bases: runs. Slap me silly.
Again we're up against what Kelly pointed out: when the metrics across systems, and even within systems from year-to-year, are that volatile, it's hard to know what's going on.
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But you mentioned that the locals were down on KJ's dee-fence. Huh.
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Ya, have always been something of an O. Hudson fan.
Hey, amigos, by the way ... if you felt like occasionally linking these articles at Mariner Central where appropriate ... and vice versa ... we'd take it as a big favor and it would push a few shekels into the jemanji family coffers.
For example, this thread at Mariner Central http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=1462&st=0 discusses Lopez at 1B. A comment like "Doc doesn't care for the idea, but has a case for in this thread" would he'p out a lot.
Needless to say, putting MC links in these threads is also welcomed and encouraged, as always.
Gracias :- )
If he does run a Tejada line, it would be great wherever he plays, but would be greater at a premium position. I'd certainly rather gain the runs from a Dunn-type, while keeping Morrow, than prevent runs with a plus-plus defender. However you create the run differential, run differential is what it is.
If defense truly is becoming less and less of a factor, then I'm reminded of one of my favorite movie's truisms: 100% market share of a disappearing market is a recipe for failure. Our collective infatuation with defense in this team's blogosphere is misguided. While I certainly agree that attention should be paid to it in numerous ways (remember Dr Naka's essay on positioning?), I would still be looking to put the best overall players in the right positions....with defense be given some weight, but the trick is to give it its *proper* weight.
Ya, I don't think anybody truly thinks moving Lopez to 1B is a good idea...at least I hope not.
I actually am in favor of extending Beltre and shifting him and Lopez on defense. Beltre's range is somewhat wasted at 3B and Lopez profiles better in a corner. You typically don't see guys of Beltre's body type in the middle infield, but IMO his skillset would play wonderfully there.
I disagree with that, taro. Beltre does have some range, but his best feature is his throwing arm and his ability to come in on infield grounders. That would go to waste at second. No, Beltre isn't going to be any more helpful at second than he'd be at third. Of course if he were just an average defensive second baseman, he'd instantly be one of the best middle infielders in the AL when combined with his solid bat. But I dunno...
I just don't see them moving Lopez to 1B when you just brought in Branyan/Shelton/Carp to play 1B/DH and you have a cluster of Clement/Johjima/Johnson/Moore who will all be needing at-bats soon (1B, C, and DH between them).
When I read the tea leaves from D-Wak's comments, I am preparing myself for a trade that either moves Lopez to another team or moves Lopez to 3B with Beltre moving on. I hope I am wrong on both fronts as Beltre is the best player we have and should be extended given his age. Now if Boras tells me he has no interest in sticking around and there is a deal out there that is better than the two picks we would get for him if he walks away then that might change things...a little. ;-)
Moving Lopez now would be a year too early IMO. Unless another team is out there that values him as a Tejadak-to-be and will pay accordingly, then why not give him the year to show what he truly is? Then if AB walks you can slide him over to 3B and find your defensive 2B at that time.
Now if you want to trade Lopez/Johnson for Hermida and sign Dunn to DH to make a go of 09 and bring in a Kennedy-type then sign me up partner! :-)
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When I read the tea leaves from D-Wak’s comments, I am preparing myself for a trade that either moves Lopez to another team or moves Lopez to 3B with Beltre moving on.
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Hm.
You *could* look at these smoke signals as going in the direction of the Mariners poising themselves to snag a glove man at second.
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Moving Lopez now would be a year too early IMO. Unless another team is out there that values him as a Tejadak-to-be and will pay accordingly, then why not give him the year to show what he truly is?
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Agreed Bilbo. One thing you never want to do is offload a Carlos Guillen at the very moment he's about to jell.
I definitely got the strong feeling last year that Lopez was starting to figure out when to turn on balls and when to whack them to right. I think we're about to make a huge mistake if we give up on him now.
