For 2012, give Batting Champ-San a reset and a division race, and the guess is that he'll be back.  

 

And trust us, that's not what we were expecting to find when we fed the data into the mainframe.  But fortunately for the M's and their $18M, it's what facts and logic dictate.

 

Or not.  You decide....

 

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(1) For most of the year, we've all been mystified by Ichiro's year-long slump.  Not least SSI.  Can you think of another Rose-, Rickey-, Raines-, Lofton-level leadoff hitter who hit the windshield at 37?  These guys rely on fast-twitch muscles and at 39 they're still verrrry twitchy.

 

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(2) Earlier this summer, Jeff Sullivan pointed out that Ichiro's stats are all fairly well in alignment with his career....

 

.... except for one stat:  Ichiro's BABIP is way down.  

 

For some reason, Ichiro is simply watching a lot of his batted balls hit enemy leather.  Since Jeffy wrote that, most of us have been pretty hip to the problem.  Ichiro's bouncing into a lot of 4-3's.

 

Of course, the "why" of this is not known.  You could line up 10 theories from harshest to mellowest.  Most people have assumed, at least, that he runs slower, so the infield hits are naturally down.  

 

He doesn't run slower to my eye, not compared to 2010, anyway.

 

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(3) In this superb FanGraphs follow-on, several facts came to light in the comments portion especially:

 

A - Ichiro isn't running slower; his SPD score is up this year.

 

I was glad to see this data, only because it lessens my own cognitive dissonance a bit.  

 

Ichiro's bat launch doesn't look any slower to me, though his throughspeed does.  His first step on the SB doesn't look any more sluggish.  I can't tell any difference at all in his race across the right center-gap.

 

And sure enough, the things that SPD measures confirm.  For me, this particular bill is marked PAID.

 

But then, why the lack of infield hits?  Betcha we can find out ...

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B - He is making a lot more contact with "pitcher's pitches" outside the strike zone (leading to weak contact).

 

It's a weird paradox.  A hitter who's turning the bat loose is going to miss more pitches outside the zone.  See Carp, Mike.  And that's a good thing.  You don't want to put that pitch in play, fair territory.

 

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