Ichiro and the Immortals

Q.  Who's the better ballplayer - Rose or Ichiro?

A.  Ichiro is a little better than Rose was.  I grew up watching the Big Red Machine, by the way.

It's kind of an Ernie Banks vs Cal Ripken argument:  Ernie had two unbelievable seasons, and Pete Rose at ages 27-28 was better than Ichiro was at any moment in time.  But over their careers, Ichiro's better than Rose.

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Q.  Why do you say?

A.  They're very similar players.    Rose had a 118 OPS+, while Ichiro's is 117.  Both are the 200-hit guys of their eras. 

But defense counts too, as does baserunning.  Ichiro and Rose were cast from the same mold hitting-wise, but Ichiro's clinic-on-the-field pushes his all-around game well past Rose's.  

Did you know, by the way, that Ichiro has the highest career range factor (2.26) of any right fielder ever?  #1. 

... stats aside, there has never been a right fielder who could get from home to 1B like Ichiro can.  Comparing Ichiro to other right fielders, defensively, is a joke.  Some day, people will talk about what a joke Ichiro's defense is.

If Rose had been a Franklin Gutierrez on defense, if he'd been the greatest corner OF ever, or a very good CF, they'd be even.

....................

It's worth mentioning that Ichiro faces consistently more brutal pitching than did Rose in the 1970's.  Pete Rose was a great, great player, but Ichiro's even a little better than Pete was.

He's got to do it for another 5-10 years, of course, which he will.

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Q.  Who's the better player, Ichiro or Rickey?

A.  You got me there.  Bill James coined the phrase "greatest leadoff hitter of all time," and nothing's changed since then.  Rickey will be the champ until Ackley arrives.  :- )

Bill was once asked at a convention, "do you think Rickey's a Hall of Famer?"  His reply, "if you cut Rickey in half, you'd have two HOF'ers."

Which is also true of Ichiro.  He had a HOF career in the Negro Leagues,* if you count his MLB transition project .... and he's going to have a HOF career in the U.S. even with NPB antics not considered.

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Q.  Easy 9th inning, nobody on, 5-2 lead?

A.  Ichiro has 204 points on the HOF Monitor, with 100 being a likely HOF'er.  (Number of things you do that HOF'ers do:  All-Star teams, hit .300, win MVP's, hit 40 homers, etc.)

He'll have 300 before he's done.  With another 100 in Japan.  Lofton had 91, Edmonds 88, Jackie Robinson 98, Tim Raines 89.   Ichiro's going to have 300-400.

Are you fully relishing the privilege?

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Cheers,

Dr D

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Comments

1

Great stuff Doc.
I try to remind myself everytime I watch (and let my almost 12 year old daughter know, too) that it is a great thing to watch Ichiro through his prime.  He is certainly, defensively, the greatest RF of our time and truly a hit machine.  Nice point, as well, about his slumps being comprised of a bunch of GB's to 2nd base.  I've alwys felt that he rushes things a bit and then get flippy (to use a golf word) during his slumps. 
About Ricky Henderson:
I've watched baseball for a long time.  Gobbled up James when he was just starting to be James, and replayed several entire seasons with the old APBA board game back in the '74-'79 era. 
I've long thougt that Henderson's '90 season was one of the two or three best of the modern era (And I discount B. Bonds' efforts.  They were prodigious but also tainted).
Not only did he OPS/OPS+ 1.016/188, but he also destroyed pitchers with his presence.  The only knock against that year was that he missed some games, playing in only 136.  but it was a tremendous performance. He stole 65 bases....that season deserves due mention.  I'm glad you brought him up.
188 OPS for a lead-off hitter is ALMOST unheard of.  To give you an idea of how rarified that air is Mays never hit that mark and Aaron only once. In Piazza' tremendous '97 year he hit .362/.431/.638 and his OPS was only 185!  Pujols, as the greatest CLEAN-UP hitter of our day OPSed 190 and 188 durng his terrific '08 and '09 years.
In Rock Raines' terrific '85 and '86 seasons he OPS+ed only 145 and 149.  I hope our younger guys lok back to see how terric he was as a player in his prime.
However, Hendersons '90 season WAS exceeded by one leadoff hitter!
In what was probably the greatest single modern era (and clean) season.  Joe Morgan, the greatest 2Bman off all-time (and a superb announcer currently) had a .320/.444/.576 OPS+ 186 season in '76.  AND he won the Gold Glove Award, and led his team to the WS trophy. It is the greatest season I can remember enjoying.
Anyway, back to Ichiro.  Count your blessings.  We M's fans have been given a great gift during the past decade.  I would love to continue to enjoy it, Ricky style, for the next 5 or 7 years!
moe
 

3

And you know what?  That jibes absolutely with my mind's eye.  Pete Rose was simply mean with the game on the line.
The whole Big Red Machine would show up as clutch if you went back and measured that -- Little Joe, Tony Perez, etc. 
They thought it was their universe with us just living in it, they thought it was an accident when they lost, and they thought GWRBI's were their birthright.  The Dodgers used to complain bitterly about the Reds' arrogance.  "We're willing to admit there are two great teams, but they think they own baseball."
Great post man!
.................
.... maybe that would teeter the balance back to even between Rose and Ichiro.  Hm.

4

That explains a lot about your great posts :- )
Rickey was great at all times, but his pinnacles of greatness simply stagger the mind... neither Ichiro nor any other modern #1 hitter dares put himself in the same sentence as Rickey ... except Luis Polonia of course...
.................
You're aware that Little Joe was the Reds' 3 hitter, right :- )
Have always thought of him, since, as the perfect three hitter.   Doubles man who leads the league in OBP, speed, the HR when you need it ... GG at a key defensive position.
In 1975 and 1976 he, and the Reds, had a couple of the greatest seasons ever played...

5

Doc, of course you're right!  Of course Rose was the leadoff hitter for the Big Red Machine....How did I forget that?  Sheesh.  I'm stupid! 
But, all the same... Morgan's year was the best I've ever seen.  I had forgotten about George Brett's great 1980 season (chased .400 before ending up at .390) when I posted earlier.  It popped into my head after and I just  checked back on that...Brett OPS+ed at 203(!!!)...but he only played in 117 games.  And he didn't play 2nd or win a Gold Glove.
Yaz's '67 was Morganesque, of course, too.  Triple Crown, .326/.418/.622 OPS+ of 193!!!!!  Gold Glove, too.  He played left....not the same as playing 2nd. 
And my unofficial Modern Era begins in '68 because that is the first year where I can remember watching the World Series (of course there was very little televised regular season baseball at that time). Gibson had the ungodly year.  McLain wins 31...but it is Micky Lolich who is the Series hero.  I was about a month short of being 11.  Actually watched some of it at school.
The Amazing Mets of '69 were the real gateway drug for me and baseball. (watched some of that Series at school, too.  Good teachers!) Reggie Jackson had a monster year in '69...but nobody would confuse him with Morgan with the glove. Jim Wynn was WAY great that year, too (For the young guys, check out how huge Wynn was in the years that sandwich '70.)  Wynn played in the Astrodome and I assume it had a very large negative effect on him..still had a great year. Frank Robinson had a smoking couple of years, IIRC, in the mid-60's...but that is before my unofficial '68 cutoff.  Carew's run at .400 in the late '70's was neat, too. 
Anyway....I was WAY off base.  Morgan did not hit leadoff.  Still had the best year I can remember.
Anybody else can chime in here. I'm sure I missed some impressive years.
Thanks Doc.  And kudo's for pointing out me error so graciously!  I deserved worse!  :)

6
Taro's picture

Clutch wins are a counting stat though.
If the NPB stats were included Ichiro would have already surpassed Rose despite playing several less seasons.

8

We don't jump on people for mistakes here.  :- )
About 1979 or something, James (shockingly) argued that Morgan had been the best player in the NL for several years -- remember there were no sabermetrics then -- and that nobody ever acknowledged it.  (Morgan's BB totals were completely shoved aside, as was the position-scarcity issue.)
Then "after he towered over the NL like the Colossus over Rhodes, they finally gave him an MVP, and then in 1976 he went out and did it all again.  And now hitting .250, he's still one of the better players in the league."  Or somesuch.
One of the happiest chapters of my life, being 10-14 years old during the 1972-1976 era of the Reds. 
I'm glad I wasn't a sabermetrician yet.  Johnny Bench and Pete Rose were best appreciated viscerally, as are Christopher Nolan, Pink Floyd and Ichiro.

9

That's a team I've never read much about.  Would enjoy hearing a memorial. 

10
JMC's picture

slightly under 1/2 the MLB plate appearances as Rose and is slighly more clutch per at bat.  You do also need to look at the IBB's as jemanji mentioned - he's lead the AL 3 times over the past decade including 2 of the roid years (02  & 04).  That speaks to how managers view Ichiro and how much better he has been than the man following him to the plate.
The piece I like about this stat is that it does match the memory.  In the 25 years I've been watching the Mariners, I can't think anyone I'd rather have up in a clutch situation more than Ichiro.

11

I noticed your last comment about Ichiro and Rose and Johnny Bench being best enjoyed viscerally. I understand why you would say that...two reasons (1) attitude (on the ballfield, part of the fun of the show is the take no prisoners style the latter two used and the virtuoso style perfectionism used by the first) cannot be captured numerically and (2) sabermetricians can find the flaws in Ichiro's game (and Rose's) and have delighted in pointing out those flaws...some of the people acting like sabermetricians even use those flaws as reasons to believe players like Ichiro and Rose are "overrated."
I would argue, however, that a *FULL* sabermetric analysis of Ichiro and Rose and Bench with the best data available - covering areas like runs created on the bases, defensive performance vs. position scarcity, league quality adjustment and clutch analysis...would...when coupled with the historical recounting of their flashbulb-memory achievements in those most crucial of situations...give you a even more full appreciation for players like these than a simple, emotional (visceral) reaction could possibly manage. Understanding *WHY*! Ichiro is great...WHY! teams and fans covet and fear him so...makes what you feel when you watch him live all the more enjoyable.

12

That Ichiro led the league in IBB's in '02 and '04 is really something.  Guy weighs a buck seventy, or some such thing.  Barry Bonds had a forehead that weighed a buck seventy! Those IBB's speak loudly to his value and respect as a clutch guy.
We have been blessed (and will continue to be) to watch.
Doc,  the '69 Mets still being a smile to my face.  Perhaps the one single team that I could call my "favorite" in all of sports.  the TrailBlazers of '76-'77 would be the only team that I could mention in the same breath! 
The '69 Cubs were, arguably, the better NL team that year (Billy Williams, Banks, Santo, Fergie Jenkins, et al.  Young guys should check out he careers of B. Williams and F. Jenkins.  Funny how two HoF guys can kind of disappear, "greatness wise", a few generations down the line.) But the Met's (Amazing!) reeled them in in September (or the Cubs had one of the historically large chokes of all time---take your pick).
The '69 Orioles won something like 110 games that year, had three future HoFers and a huge rotation of Jim Palmer, D. McNally, and Mike Cuellar.  Met's lost the opener and then whacked them 4 straight in a Series highlighted by great defensive plays. Ron Swoboda absolutely saved one game with a late inning flat out diving catch in RF.  I'm sure you've seen the reels of it.
Mets played in spacious Shea and were built around Tom Seaver's right arm and the left of Jerry Koosman. Both were wokhorses who went the distance about 1/2 the time, if memory serves me.
Offensively, they were mostly a platoon squad. 
Besides Tommy Agee in CF (kind of an early Guti at that time.  I think Agee washed out pretty early...because I don't remember much of him during those Big Red Machine years) and Cleon Jones in LF (who had a huge '69, but kind of faded relatively early, too), and maybe Buddy Harrelson at SS (Jack Wilson type) they platooned at every other position. Harrelson sat quite a bit, too, I think.  Manager Gil Hodges had a slap type hitter (or bat, he wasn't much of a hitter) on the bench named Al Weis who he like to play. It payed off becasue Weis turned into a bit of a slugger during the World Series.
  Ed Kranepool (1B) and Art Shamsky (COF) were very potent LH bats.  And Tug McGraw was a great late inning pitcher.  Most teams had no designated "closer" in the '60's and it was often manned by a couple of guys or by committee, as you know.
But the dominant force on that team was Tom Seaver.  He was truly great.  Young guys don't remember him, I imagine, but he was something.  Kind of an early Roger Clemens, without the ped's and underage country-western singers. Same kind of build in their primes with tremendously strong lower bodies. 
Let me check something on Seaver..I'll be back.
OK..I'm back..just did a baseball-reference check on him. 
Greatness over a career? Two things (besides the 300+ wins) can point to that.  He entered the HoF by being included on 425 of 430 ballots!  Yikes!  (The 5 guys who voted No had to be Cubby beat writers!) and Betwen 1967 and 1981 he NEVER had what could be called a bad year.  NEVER.  Check it out. He had a lousy '82, as a 37 year old, but then came back to throw 230+ innings in each of the next three years as a 38, 39 and 40 year old guy!  ERA's between 3.5 and 4.0 in the 1st two and below 3.2 in the last.
Tom Terrific was my favorite all-time pitcher until Greg Maddux came along.  Still remains #2. That ain't bad.
Ahhhh...the Mets of '69.  Truly MY "Boys of Summer!"
moe

13
Taro's picture

I love MC, but I really don't understand the anti-Ichiro mentality there.
It  seems like a lot of people just really don't like him.. Its a little depressing for me as a part-Japanese/former NPB fan.
This is the greatest NPB player of all-time, one of the greatest players in baseball during the decade of the 2000s, and people will just write him off as a selfish slap hitter. Instead of enjoying him on the field, they've been predicting his decline since 2002.
I don't want to speak bad of the MC'ers as I like and respect everyone there, but this is one area that really leaves me confused. Hes one of the few HOF players we'll ever have, hes stayed loyal to Seatlle and signed some team friendly contracts despite the losing.. and yet people legitimately seem to not like him.

14

For me, loving Ichiro on the teams we've fielded the last 7 years is how I would imagine it would be loving Mariano Rivera if he were taking up 15% of our salary allowance.
 
Is he amazing?  Absolutely.
 
Is he a HOFer?  I can't see how he wouldn't be.
 
Is he the missing piece on these teams?  No.
 
Does he need other players to make him fully effective?  Yes.
 
Players who hit themselves in are more helpful to offensively challenged teams.  Much like a closer needs the guys who get into the game before him to do their jobs so he can take the ball and win the game, so too does Ichiro need the other players to do more than ground weakly to second or his skillset is not optimal. 
 
Ichiro is wasted on this team.  And that means he is getting judged on the things he doesn't do (walk, hit HRs, drive in 150) instead of what he does, because if we were spending his $17 million a season on a HOF power hitter instead we wouldn't be in this mess - or so the theory goes.
 
It doesn't affect how much I appreciate him as a player...but I'll admit, it does affect how I feel about team flexibility and improvement options.
 
If you used a crystal ball and told me I could swap Ichiro's salary to NY and that I would be guaranteed to roll those funds into a masher like Gonzalez or Fielder, I'd do it.
 
Figgins and Ackley hitting one-two with Fielder knocking them in works far better for me than Ichiro and Figgins hitting one-two with no one knocking them in.
 
And I don't consider that a slam on Ichiro and his greatness - just an acknowledgment that our offense as currently constructed is completely incapable of doing anything useful with Ichiro's contributions.  He's scored 35 runs this year.  Thirty five.
 
Hall of Famer or not, this is not an offense Ichiro can lift.  Ichiro can make a good offense great, but a bad offense is left to flounder for itself.  He can't fix it.
 
So I feel much like I would if I was watching Rivera cool his heels in the pen while we squander a lead before the 8th.  It's not Ichiro's fault we don't have a team built to take advantage of him, but I don't know if I can GET a team that can while paying him what we are.
 
It's a catch-22.  Since ownership will never trade him, I understand that he's on the team to stay and I'll enjoy watching him play.  But watching us lose in so many pathetic ways takes some of the shine off of his greatness.  It just does.  It's not his fault that he's our only capable bat at this point, but deep inside I probably blame him anyway.
 
It's not easy being great.
 
~G

15
Taro's picture

Yes, but switching Fielder or Gonzalez for Ichiro only makes you marginal better in the short term, if that. Theres barely a gap at between those players considering total contribution (offense+defense+Baseruning+clutch). How many Ribbies would either player have on this team?
The problem is the team surrounding Ichiro. Bradley making $15mil next year, Jack Wilson, Casey Kotchman, Chone Figgins, Jose Lopez, the bullpen, etc.
Ichiro's salary has been a bargain so far for the Ms just on the baseball field and when you considering his marketing value hes practically free. The frustration shouldn't be targetted towards Ichiro all the time, and I guess thats my major beef.

17

They amplify the lineup they're in.
Put Kenny Lofton on the Manny/Belle Indians and they are completely unstoppable.  Same with Rose and the Reds, or Rickey and the Yankees or Bash Brothers.
Put Ichiro at the top of a fearsome lineup and all of a sudden that lineup goes from "excellent" to "literally irresistible."  It's in the consistent 3 hours of tactical pressure that the pitcher inevitably makes mistakes.
But a HOF leadoff hitter doesn't lift a bad lineup much, no.
................
Can you imagine Ichiro at the top of the Yankees' lineup?!

18
Taro's picture

When he was good it was ho-hum, after '08 it really got ugly..
I can only imagine whats going to happen once Ichiro actually declines.
If you can't like him when hes a superstar whats going to happen when he hits a cliff and becomes "average"? I might have to take a break from the internet whenever that does happen..

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