Halladay-Lee vs Maddux-Glavine: How Soon We Forget

This article is a quibble, and therefore directly contradictory to everything that SSI stands for.  Sounds like about four posts' worth to me.  :- )

Have the Phils scored a near-fall on the World Series?  See you in four posts... Dr D

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I/O:  Seattle's best MSM baseball writer gushes that he'll take Halladay and Lee over Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

CRUNCH:  I've got nothing against comparing the 1995 Randy Johnson to Sandy Koufax.  Hey, I do.  The best players of the 1990's were as good as the best ones from the 1960's, and the best players of the '00's are as good as the best ones from the 1980's. 

But in this case, I've got real enthusiasm for the cliche that says "Let's see Halladay win 350 games first, and then we'll talk better than Greg Maddux."  ;- ) 

The spirit of Geoffy's article is great.  Hey, the Phillies have a zeal for pennants over there.  Wish our team did.  On this plot theme, we're with Geoffy and two steps ahead.

And you give Dr. D a ballclub ... there's nothing he would jump on faster, than the chance to build his team around 3 thirty-something (not young) aces.

But:

Maddux and Glavine were two of the best pitchers of their era, no question. I saw them pitch often as an Expos fan in Montreal. But they also got to face the pitcher every third inning. They faced a bottom third of the order that was nowhere near as good as what most AL pitchers faced.

True, but is it accurate?

That's exactly what ERA+ does:  it compares a starting pitcher* to the other 69 starting pitchers who are pitching same year, same DH rule, same ballparks, same everything.

Roy Halladay's best ERA+:

  • 185
  • 159
  • 159
  • 152
  • 149

Greg Maddux best ERA+:

  • 271
  • 262
  • 189
  • 187
  • 172
  • Another five (5) seasons averaging 160:  ten separate seasons of historic ERA+

Cliff Lee best ERA+, by the way:

  • 168
  • 168
  • Nothing else above 135

This goes far beyond a spitting match waged with alphanumeric characters.  On a common-sense level, we are forgetting that neither Halladay nor Lee ever did anything remotely like Greg Maddux's 1994-1995 rampage over the National League.

Lee has been an utter joy to watch, but teams score runs on him.  In 1994-1995, Maddux started 63 consecutive games and gave up 73 earned runs.  Both seasons combined.

Those two years -- 73 earnies in 63 starts -- followed three years 1991-1993 in which Maddux threw over 260 innings every year.  (Lee and Halladay blow minds by throwing 220 and 240 a year, respectively.)

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