1
Gotta agree.
Even if they walk Ichiro, you're getting a .500 OBP in those two ABs.
Wak has never been a very good tactical manager, but the vast majority of these MLB managers aren't very good in that department.
Gotta Bunt There, Dude
You don't play for one run -- unless you know for a fact that that run is the ballgame. - Earl Weaver
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=== Blamed if I do and Blamed if I don't, Dept. ===
With every other blog sticking Wok on a skewer and roasting him over Styx, for the lack of pinch-hitting... SSI feels pretty bad about finally weighing in ... to excoriate a decision TO pinch-hit.
With the M's down 5-3 against Vanilla Shaq in the 9th, Jose Lopez turned on a pitch and laced it into the corner for a double. "That's the same as if we were down 1, nobody on," I reminded John. He nodded and bore down on his PSP.
Josh Wilson up, the #8-9 hitters following him, Wilson stepped into the box and Junior stepped into the on-deck circle for the catcher. Beautiful. What were our chances to win there? Up to 18% already, and it felt like more.
Wilson banged a ball back up the middle, and JLo hustled around. Tying run on first NOBODY OUT!
The odds were up to 31% -- consider that a tie game is around 50% -- but even 31% doesn't take into account the manager's option to manufacture a single run if he's willing to settle.
I'm sure that the WE is higher than 31% with a man on 2B and one out and Ichiro due up in the inning, and the chance of a botched bunt is more than canceled by the chance of a bunt hit or throwing error.
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=== Option Play, Dept. ===
With Josh Wilson on his way down to first base and JLo rounding third, Dr. D annoyingly preached to John that John's hero, Ken Griffey Jr., needed to be pulled back off the on-deck circle.
Look. With a runner on 1B, nobody out, down by 1, a bunt is the indicated play with generic players on the field. Even Earl "Three-Run Homer" Weaver said, "You don't play for one run unless you know that run is the ballgame."
Wilson's single run is worth three runs at some other time. Bunting here is going for the three-run homer, from a leverage standpoint.
..................
But the Mariners aren't battling with generic players here. They're battling with players who, if they swing away, are vastly loaded to the Twins' advantage. They have their #8-9 hitters up and the Twins' closer in. Normal play doesn't work here.
Bunting, of course, muddies the water that is running so clear and blue in the Twins' favor. The WE charts and batter-pitcher matchups do not reflect a given batter's ability to lay down a fair bunt.
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=== Double-Take, Dept. ===
True that Rob Johnson and/or Matt Tuiasosopo might not be trustworthy bunters. But Michael Saunders is an exceptional bunter, and Wok is going to put Saunders into the game the next play as a pinch-runner.
Pinch-bunt Michael Saunders, with Griffey or Kotchman pinch-hitting on the next at-bat. Ichiro follows them.
With the defense pressured, and Saunders' speed, you might even see something ugly happen for the Twins. But worst-case, you've still got the same pinch-hit with 1 out, Ichiro behind them.
...............
Instead, with the force play on, Griffey of course bounces a ball to the 2B and only a miracle saves the DP.
The look on Griffey's face, after he was mercifully spared a double play, was pathetic. Not even his worst critic would have felt like rubbing it in after that camera shot.
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=== You Go Wok ===
Complaining about a single play doesn't mean that SSI sees Wakamatsu as anything other than one of the great young managers we have seen in the last 20 years. And it's not our style to complain about in-game tactical decisions.
But if I were ever going to call an in-game decision feebleminded, it would be that one. I don't care if Griffey hits a walkoff home run, you had to bunt with the leadoff guy on, nobody out, and the 8-9 hitters up.
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My $0.02,
Dr D
Comments
2
If yu pinch hit Saunders to bunt for Rob Johnson...his speed WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE to pinch run...he'll be OUT at first base and out of the ballgame, Doc. Pinch bunt Saunders...it's a decent strategy...I could get behind it...but don't pretend that will produce baserunning opportunities...Josh Wilson wil be at second...not Michael Saunders. Then you can pinch hit Griffey for the nine hitter with one out and you'd have Ichiro-san up with two outs and the runner still at second because Griffey is all but guaranteed to do something unproductive. I think it's fairly clear that the Twins would walk Ichiro and take their chances with Figgins there...two on, two out, third base open and the outfield playing way...way...WAAAAYYYY in. I think the Mariners still easily lose the game.
3
He's a middle infielder and one of the M's six or eight fastest position players. He can score from second on a single.
The difference we're looking at isn't Wilson's vs. Saunders' chance to score from 2nd on a single; it's whether the runner is on 2B or 1B, right?
4
I was disagreeing with the notion that there was any chance to use Saunders to open up the speed game...there wasn't. Unless he got a bunt hit or reached on an error. My point is...you could argue that bunting increases the Mariners' chances of tying the score somewhat...but you can't argue that it does that by increasing the Mariners' speed game threat...it's a by the numbers choice...try to hit your way to victory...or try to small-ball in a run.
I would probably have bunted too...but Josh Wilson isn't fast enough to steal third or something like that to get you into a runner at third with less than two outs high percentage situation. So don't act like bunting was an automatic tie and pinch hitting was mortally stupid.
5
Who was arguing that Saunders' speed mattered in the pinch-bunt?
We mentioned, offhand, that Saunders has a chance for a bunt hit, or even to force a throwing error, but that's incidental ...
What I'm wanting, is runner on 2B, 1 out, as opposed to runner on 1B, 0 out ... *in view of the hitters due up at the plate*...
Probably did my usual spectacular job of stating that in the most confusing manner possible :- )
6
True that Rob Johnson and/or Matt Tuiasosopo might not be trustworthy bunters. But Michael Saunders is an exceptional bunter, and Wok is going to put Saunders into the game the next play as a pinch-runner.
Pinch-bunt Michael Saunders, with Griffey or Kotchman pinch-hitting on the next at-bat. Ichiro follows them.
With the defense pressured, and Saunders' speed, you might even see something ugly happen for the Twins.
I read that as you saying Saunders would be the guy on second. It would seem I misread it.