=== Bringing Guns to Gunfights ===
As y'know, MLB Trade Rumors is reporting a Felix extension.
Jack sure had me faked out of my jock. That first 4/$50 offer, or whatever it was, had me thinking that the M's wanted to include Felix in the egg-flipping frenzy. But fortunately, Alan Nero was nonplussed, said "it'll work out."
This undoubtedly reflected the fact that Felix had directed him to fix his spot in Seattle. More early returns on the enjoyable clubhouse that was set up by Zduriencik, Wakamatsu, and Griffey.
Pro sports history is littered with clubhouses that were obviously miserable to be a part of - as was the 2008 Mariners clubhouse - and those that have the players literally weeping to see the season end. As the 2009 clubhouse.
Another ROI for taking sports psychology into consideration, as Jack Zduriencik and Don Wakamatsu masterly do: Felix chooses to stay, and undoubtedly at terms favorable to the Mariners.
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=== Historical Comps: There Aren't Any ===
Go to baseball-reference.com, to find Bill James' top 10 historical comps for Felix, and you're looking for 23-year-olds who threw 1000 innings, won 50 games, and ran 120 or better ERA+'s.
The list is populated with guys from 100 or more years ago. :- ) Lee Vaiu from the 1880's, Kid Gleason from the 1880's, Van Mungo from the 1930's, Waite Hoyt from World War ONE, etc.
In other words, sure, guys used to win 50 games by age 23. Back when they had to play baseball in the daylight.
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There are also Bret Saberhagen, the best RHP between WWII and Pedro Martinez, Denny McLain the last 30-game winner (a guy who ruined his own life and career) and some burnout cases like Gary Nolan.
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=== 230-lb Monster RH'ers ===
The real comps for Felix are Roger Clemens and Tom Seaver. He is in that class.
Clemens isn't in Felix' comps list because Clemens went to college, and hadn't done nearly as much by age 23. Seaver also didn't hit the majors till 22. They aren't on Felix' comps list yet, but by the time Felix is 30 years old, they'll both be in his top five.
In other words, Clemens and Seaver aren't in Felix' comps list because they weren't good enough.
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=== Progression ===
I expect Felix to get better at what he does, as both Clemens and Seaver did.
At a glance down his ERA+ line, Clemens doesn't look like he evolved. But keep in mind: the 1980's were a different era. Clemens came up and just fired 96-mph fastballs by hitters, simply gassing hitters to death and his own superstardom.
That "here it is, hit it" game does not work in the 21st century; the sport has progressed. Clemens himself recently complained, "the strike zone is the size of a license plate."
Clemens continued to post 170 ERA's in his 30's, in part, because he refined his command to a hair's width, and kept coming up with lethal offspeed pitches (notably his splitfinger).
Felix faced a different game in the 21st century, one that would be difficult for any young pitcher to come up and "challenge" his way to 170 ERA's.
But Felix has learned how at this point, just posted his first 170 ERA+, and I imagine he'll be 140-180 on a year-in, year-out basis. As time goes on, expect him to pitch more with command and less with velocity, and to find a favorite offspeed pitch.
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It is even possible that Felix could turn out to be better than Roger Clemens, because his offspeed stuff is even better.
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=== Golfclap Dept. ===
We remember about 1990, Bill James making the outrageous statement about Roger Clemens: "Clemens is the best righthand pitcher in the game since Tom Seaver. And Seaver wasn't any better." James had a knack for seeing these things five years early.
Since 1970, the behemoth, aircraft-carrier RHP's ... absurdly gifted and best in the game by age 25 ... poised for 20 years of Opening Days, have been Seaver, Felix and Roger Clemens.
There have been other big RH aces, like John Smoltz, Fergie Jenkins, even Justin Verlander now, but they weren't nearly as good in their 20's. (You could argue about Verlander.) Since the days of Bob Gibson and Juan Marichal there has not been a real Seaver-Clemens comp -- until Felix Hernandez.
Tom Seaver was the heir to Bob Gibson; Roger Clemens was the heir to Tom Seaver; and Felix Hernandez is the new Roger Clemens.
Nice to come up with your own Seaver, and even nicer that he will not be pitching in pinstripes.
How do they like the news at Halos Haven? ;- )
Yay Chuckie,
Dr D
Not clear whether it's just her opinion or insider stuff or some of both, but Shannon Drayer says:
"78 million does not slam the door on a future contract for Cliff Lee or other players that can help the team win."
Summary: Ichiro signed thru 12; Felix thru 14; Guti thru 13; Figgins thru 13.
I suppose Z can throw together a few other guys to round out the roster.
If you can't pay the best* pitcher in the game $15-16m a year -- compared to what Santana and Sabathia got -- and still pay for a contending rest-o-the-24, then you're not a contender...
Assuming it's structured along the lines of $10-12-17-18-19, that's pretty close to where Olney quoted the GM consensus. 6 / $100-110 was what the GM's thought and Felix is a $22m 2015 season away from that.
6/$100 would have been exTREMEly fair to the M's, and Felix even backed down from that by a few million, so I'd call the deal fair-but-favorable to the M's. It also rebuffs my original worry that 4/$55 was too insulting, because the advance of 1/$23 to touchdown dance, shows that 4/$55 was a pretty good launching point.
All around, 5 / $78 is a real sweet spot, pretty much a dream contract for M's fans, and makes Felix filthy rich for the rest of his life.
:cheers:
This is what, 40% of the Sabathia contract and 70% of the salary? And Felix is the better pitcher.
Felix an arb guy, of course, but by any standards the 2010-2014 M's are going to get a LOT of bang for the buck on Opening Day.
Dont forget, Doc -- a *LARGE* part of the MLB pay structure is based on "time served". Sabathia's $23 million seasons begin with his 10th season in the Majors. Felix is about to begin his 6th. Time of service figures heavily into the arbitration rules, and it figures into the FA contracts, too. Even AROD didn't break the bank until his 8th season.
That's the main reason for buying out the arb years -- to move the artificial deflation from the early years to artificial deflation of later years. It would certainly be simpler if it was only about performance - but it's not.
Is you get Felix pitching in his prime for the majority of the contract period. I cannot emphasize this enough. Defiantly a good sign.
which is why we say 'in absolute terms' it's a great deal. In relative terms, it's within the bounds of precedent...
Heyman says $10 - 10 - 18.5 - 19.5 - 20, which is the same as the previously estimated 6/$100 but with the 6th year, $22m, not on there.
Do you amigos figure that is more the M's preference, or Felix', that the GM-expected 6th year get left off?
I picture the M's wanting a club or vesting option, and Nero declining, saying the value is already very attractive to the M's. Maybe.
The report I've seen said that Felix wanted 6 years, the M's wanted 4, so they settled for 5.
If that's true, the 6 years surprises me a bit. I'd think Felix would be strategizing to get his max deal possible when he's a free agent next, and probably age 29-30 is where teams might start to question his age. So a 4 or 5 year deal might be the best thing for him, hitting FA at age 27-28.
But you know, the more I think about it, the more I think it was in Felix' interest to go as long as he can on this current deal. There's the risk of going Kerry Wood, as Sandy mentioned at MC, and the risk of getting hurt. And who knows how salaries and contracts will be structured in 5 years, maybe there will even be some sort of salary cap in baseball. Maybe Felix will get tired of pitching and want to become a professional bowler.
All in all, getting the highest guaranteed dollar number he can get now, regardless of years, seems to be the smartest thing for him to do. And that seems to be what he did.
Agreed, Doc.
Z has dealt with a firm hand all of the players to whom he has been tied this last offseason, especially Branyan. We have seen him move on if the player/agent/org was (presumably) not willing to play ball on Z's terms. (Branyan, Harden, Johnson, etc.)
Seems to me that Nero had the cajones to call Z's bluff with arguabley his most valuable client's MLB career hanging in the balance. Rejecting an offer from this FO might mean living day to day, as Branyan has done since he insisted on a multi-year deal, for the next 2 seasons.
I am sure, in the end, that both sides were operating with some appreciation for how much one side needed the other: pre-FA pitchers don't reject 78 mill.-dollar deals, and FO's don't mess around with club-controlled 23 year-old HOF monsters.
I am just so happy that we are going to get to watch Felix deal for the next five seasons. Is his forearm flexor strong enough for the Boston Swerveball yet? :)
Great news.
At $17.5mil average for his FA years, I wouldn't of minded a 7 or 8 year deal. Felix has good solid mechanics, is 24, and doesn't throw any high risk offspeed pitches (as long as he stays away from the slider for the most part). 5 is solid. I would have preffered 6.
Its great that we finally locked him up though, and at a fair price to boot.
Then it's safe to say they wouldn't give a 6th year to anybody.
Who knows - maybe the game would be better off if 5 years was the absolute limit given to any pitcher, up to and including Christy Mathewson.
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No tears for Felix ... the first $50m+ after taxes will change his life more than the next $500 billion. I'd have locked up the Midas vault too.