Gerrit Cole and ... Tim Lincecum?!
Let's see if we can aspire to the Josh Beckett level of magnitude first, and if so, that's plenty high enough for any one mortal baseball-chucker.
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If analysts are going to start calling hot pitchers "90% of Stephen Strasburg" they're going to get their evaluations completely fouled up.
The extra two feet on Strasburg's stuff makes him a different animal - like if there were an NFL wide receiver that could run 3 mph faster. If there were a WR who could run 31 mph, then a guy who ran 28 mph wouldn't be 90% of him.
Or with Ichiro. His extra tick of hand-eye coordination is what separates him for a jillion guys who are together in a pack.
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Very rare be the college pitcher that I would take in exchange for Michael Pineda at this point in his arc, but I'd give you three Pinedas for one Tim Lincecum, much less one Stephen Strasburg...
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Cole may be great - I haven't even looked at him - but comparing ANYbody to Stephen Strasburg is the wrong way to evaluate them.
We are also assuming, without looking, that Cole is well short of Tim Lincecum, who is himself well short of Stephen Strasburg. But Tim Lincecum is the one recent young pitcher who could be called "Some Significant Fraction of Stephen Strasburg."
If Gerrit Cole were as good as Tim Lincecum, same age and level, same stuff, then he would be SSI's easy choice over Anthony Rendon. Not having seen him I'm assuming that's virtually impossible.
The reason, of course, is that the pitcher holds the ball. Once you get as good as Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsuzaka (healthy), and those guys, you are odds-on to be a star in the major leagues. Anthony Rendon is not odds-on to be a star in the majors, any more than Alex Gordon was.
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Haven't even looked at Cole, but let's say he aspires to be the Josh Beckett of this draft, that's plenty ambitious enough. And as G has been saying, if ANY college pitcher separates from the pack, that puts your local heroes in a verrrry plum position in June.
Looks like that is what is occurring right now.
Chuck Knox turned around what, 3, 4 NFL teams, turned them from pantywaists to rawhide-tough contenders, and did it routinely.
Once he was asked how. "You inherit a team that has been losing a lot, and it has several years' worth of very talented, very high draft picks... under those conditions, you should be able to fight for a Super Bowl by year 3."
If Zduriencik is as good as SSI thinks he is, the Mariners are just a horizon's journey away from putting together a VERY exciting team.
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I do like Cole's Nolan Ryan spirit, though. :- ) Especially the stepping in front of the rubber stuff.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
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Hype getting out of control, but I hope it continues (maybe the Pirates bite?).
Cole is closer to 90% of Justin Verlander or David Price. I'd comp him to someone like Brandon Morrow.
Cole's K/9 so far is 9.6, not 16+ like Strasburg. Thats with the new bats too.
Not really on point, but, its interesting food for stat freaks.
The fastest human speeds recorded top out at approximately 24 miles per hour. Michael Johnson's 1996 medal winning run in the 200 meter race, had him clock in at an average speed of 23.15 miles per hour. He ran the second half of the race at an average speed of 24.3 miles per hour (the second half of a 200 meter race goes much faster because the athlete is already up to speed). The current world speed record for the 200 meter is held by Usain Bolt, at an average speed of 23.30 miles per hour. This record was set at the 2009 World Championships. Mr. Bolt's second half was run at an average of 23.98 miles per hour. So, Johnson reached the higher top speed but Bolt was quicker out of the box by a long shot. This out of the box speed is what is prized in football, so maybe Mr. Bolt missed his calling.
I recently used my GPS to track my top speed. My GPS records the highest speed that you reach in miles per hour. It does not track average speeds, which is how sprinters are judged, so I had an unfair advantage.
I came in at 19.2 miles per hour as my best top speed. I am not particularly speedy. This makes my speed 80 percent of the fastest speed ever run in the fastest race that is run, by the fastest people who ever raced.
Note that an Elephant clocks in at a maximum speed of 15 miles per hour, and is one of the few animals that can be outrun by a man. Dogs, bears and horses have no problem reaching speeds well over 30 miles per hour, so there is no point in running from them. If you find yourself in bear country, and you feel the need for protection, just take along someone slower than you are. Don't take your dog.
I do believe Cole's 2010 is closer to his true ability than the dominance in 2011.
Looking at the front of UCLA's rotation:Cole: 4 GS, 30.1 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 37 K, 1 HR, 1.78 ERAPlutko: 4 GS, 25.0 IP, 16 H, 7 BB, 23 K, 0 HR, 1.08 ERABauer: 4 GS, 31.2 IP, 18 H, 14 BB, 46 K, 3 HR, 1.71 ERA
Now, Cole's 2010 still makes him the best SP amateur in the country, but it's definitely short of 'the best college prospect of all-time'.
Strasburg had more concerns. Normal teenage SP's don't increase their velocity by 10 MPH in college; there's no precedent as to what kind of effect that will have on a throwing arm. Whether they were valid concerns or just wanna-be scouts betting on good odds to look smart in retrospect, alarms were also going off across the baseball community about his mechanics.
Draft picks should really only be judged by their first 6 seasons - you get 3 club controlled years, 3 years at a 25-35% discount, and if you retain the player beyond that, you're going to be paying close to market value. Strasburg's injury blows out almost an entire club-controlled year - the Nats are literally getting zero return on a third of Strasburg's bargain time.
You list out the top 10 college SP's, and Cole will have the least concerns out of any of them. Ryan Anderson made it all the way to extended dominance at AAA, and we still didn't get a single major league inning out of him. Whether you have the best SP in the AL or the #10 SP in the AL is nowhere near as significant as having a healthy TOR SP or an injured SP.
Strasburg was easily the better prospect on draft day - BUT if the M's draft Cole with the #2 pick in June, and then the Nats come calling with a PTBNL for PTBNL trade of Cole for Strasburg ... I'm turning it down.
Or just take along some bear spray...which I call "seasoning".
Color me confused...how is this relevant to Cole vs. Strausburg?
nm
no value
:) sorry not meant for you. I posted a reply to you, which someone(spam filter maybe?) deemed unworthy of remaining - my own brand of harmless, stupid humor. "Lame" was meant for that person(or filter). I presumed it'd be removed as quickly as my first comment. Apparently "Lame" was less inflammatory than my silliness. My apologies
that anything would be removed at SSI, you presumed in (an understandable newbie) error.
At SSI we don't suppress annoying ideas - we refute them. ;- )
But thanks just the same, and bring it.
Including Ichiro?
... A former first round draft pick by the Yankees straight out of highschool. hit 98 on the gun as a 17 yr. old.
Mentored by his father (who has a PhD) The Cole family, however, decided that attending college at UCLA was in Cole's best interest. And he has lived up to the hype in one of the toughest college baseball conferences ever since.
As a freshman Cole set UCLA's freshman single-season record with 104 strikeouts. Ranked second in the Pac-10 in opponent batting average, fourth in strikeouts and 9th in innings pitched. Later in the summer he went on to play for team USA where he basically led all pitchers. And was rated the number 1 amateur prospect. I won't reiterate what he's done since (after all I'm a commenter and not a feature writer) but the accolades have kept a commin'.
There has been a some question concerning Coles mental make-up as it was rumored that he had a few locker room run-ins with fellow team mates early on in his collegiate career. Nothing serious though, as I'm led to believe that it was typiclal chest beating and locking horns amongst some of the older players. Getting a little testy with Cole as the freshman BMOC.
Physical make up... he's a prototype at 6'4" and 220 lbs with decent mechanics. What's not to like.
The down side.... His agent is Scott Boras which means he'll probably be delayed until the final hour before he sets foot on the field. Rumor says that he will garner 8 to 10 mil. in signing bonuses.
I cast in my lot mid-season last year with this one. I hope we get him. I'm going with... every bit of a concensus number 2 pick as Dustin Ackley was right now. Is he Strass? Nah, he's mortal, but I think he falls in line with the David Prices.
Pantywaist...(he he ;D) I havn't heard that one in years. Thanks to Spec for keeping up with the horse race.
I'm not sure I follow.
You dont recognize the name, but I'm no newb(Love SSI. Have for years) I pop into the comments section totally at random, say something silly and then off into the night....
I posted in defense of the relevancy of "Human top speed." I'm 99.9% positive I didnt make some newb error. i.e. not submitting said post properly because of the Captcha dealy(which is I think what you implied above).
I feel very certain of this because I kept going back to the post and refreshing hoping someone might've gotten a kick out of my comment. I happened to be watching "The Other Guys" on amazon and it couldn't keep my attention if my life depended upon it. Hence, I feel I did a lot of checking on said post.
Maybe an hour later it was gone. If you say you didn't take it down then I have no explanation for what occurred. It doesn't matter as I wasn't even offended by the idea my comment might be removed. Sometimes my delirous late-night humor doesn't transalte well to the interwebs I guess.
Sorry to ramble. I just wanted to be extra clear I wasn't trying to stir up trouble, cause I like you so darn much :)
the comment i posted was as "anonymous" - for no reason other than sheer laziness. I just didnt feel right apologizing to someone without attaching my name.
Thanks for the xtra effort...
Would that last year's second baseman had backed up the OF throws with as much alacrity...