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=== You Pay a Price for Everything You Believe That Is Not True, Dept. ===

Famous James quote.

My elderly mom went to the specialist yesterday.  The doctor is a brilliant man, wonderful man, trained in both Western and Eastern medicine.  The only man with his particular qualifications.  ... Mom has been losing weight, among other problems, which kind of ruins the introduction, but don't stress for us over that part.  Nothing out of the ordinary going on.

Anyway, Super-Surgeon tells my mom smilingly and firmly, you start eating fatty foods.  Tuna in oil, ice cream, chocolate, cheese, butter, nuts.  Start eating fatty foods or ... anyway.  Start eating fatty foods and then I can cure you.  She says, oh, no, my blood sugar could go up.  Such is the crushing power of propaganda.

The USDA food pyramid says, eat white flour.  Well, it doesn't say that exactly -- best is whole wheat with bran, wink wink -- but the USDA knows its pyramid will lead to millions of loaves of Wonder Bread being eaten, and the country going diabetic.  Better than heart disease, says the paradigm  It tells us to use oil sparingly.  Use animal products as seldom as possible.  We've heard this a lot.  We've heard it so MANY times that we associate the NUMBER of times we have heard it with --- > the idea that it has been proven.  Usually you don't hear "the sun comes up in the east" your whole life, unless it's actually true.

Has the USDA food pyramid been proven, or has it been propagandized?  Have you personally satisfied yourself that you understand nutrition on that level, have comprehensively reviewed the studies and meta-studies, on both sides of all issues?  Or have you (as I often have) started with a conclusion and found a few studies that reinforced your starting point?  Was Dr. Atkins wrong, and if he was right, how would you know?

Whichever way you lean on the USDA food pyramid, fine.  The point is, a lot of things we believe, we believe because we've heard them so often, and stated with an air of authority.  

That ain't how we roll at MC and SSI and at the Stalk.  We wanna start with blank sheets of paper.

............

Baseball Prospectus, ten or fifteen years ago, started counting "abusive" pitches.  That was their word, "abuse."  Abuse in the dictionary is defined as "an illegal, improper, or harmful physical, psychological, or sexual maltreatment of a person or animal."

BP selected the number 100 as the point at which abuse is being applied to a person or animal.  Suppose that humans used base 11, that they had six fingers on their left hands?  Would (base 10) 121 have been the point at which persons and animals were being maltreated illegally or harmfully?

BP decreed that 101 pitches were dangerous, and it decreed that 120 pitches were murderous.  It started crucifying MLB managers who defied the arch-diocese.  Bill James pointed out, along the way, that pitchers on its "Most Abused" leaderboards went on to stay much healthier than average.  It didn't matter.  The dominoes fell, and now if a pitcher goes over 120 pitches, everybody looks at the manager with high suspicion.

The past few years, Felix himself has spoken in terms of 110-120 pitches being an appropriate limit.  An interviewer asked if it ever bothered him, not being able to throw more than 110 or 120 pithes.  "They're just trying to protect us," he replied cheerfully.  I'll give you a personal opinion, and it could be wrong.  I think that Felix himself has bought into a myth.  Nolan Ryan would agree:  he believes that his pitchers need to learn that it's okay to throw more pitches.

.............

Felix threw 124 pitches tonight, and then he left the game, whereupon all of his work was burned in front of him.  Remember the Dilbert cartoon?  Prince of Insufficient Light gives Dilbert two choices:  work for peanuts, but have meaningful impact, or make a nice salary but watch your work burned in front of you every day.  "Wow!  They're BOTH better than my current job!  Wally, you may want to get in on this."  

Felix' work, one of the masterpieces of his lifetime, was burned in front of him tonight.  Do we know that 140, 150 pitches are dangerous for a Clemens or Seaver or Felix, or have we simply been told that?

Earl Weaver firmly believed that when a great pitcher was tiring, well, 80% of a great pitcher was still better than a mediocre reliever.  He managed for a long time, and his starters stayed healthy.

Nolan Ryan would have found it ludicrous that Felix didn't finish Thursday's game.  Nolan Ryan is not a cartoon character; he is a man who struck out 5,700 big league hitters.

If Felix had thrown 140 pitches, 145 pitches, he probably could have used a light 95-pitch outing next time; he probably would have had a fatigued arm and probably would have had his B game.  Or, he could have used an extra day's rest -- oh, wait.  He will have an extra day's rest next start.

..............

Felix was throwing an easy 92-93 MPH in the 8th, throwing great, throwing harder after 110 pitches tonight than he has thrown all season!  Check the velo chart:  Felix' best velocities of the 2012 season were occurring right when Eric Wedge pulled him from the game, as the game now seems to demand that Wedge do, and that Felix himself probably expects Wedge to do.  Felix should have come out for the 9th, blasted away a very blastable four or five hitters due up, and left with an epic win.

This loss brought to you by Baseball Prospectus.   You pay a price for everything you believe that isn't true.

.

=== /rant ===

How does Felix stay so motivated, so focused, under the circumstances in which he pitches?   Bob Costas said once, "Michael Jordan is what you get when you cross an overachiever, with a supreme talent."

Had Felix Hernandez no other athletic attribute, other than his makeup, he would be a hero.  It so happens that he has THE best 4-pitch arsenal in baseball today, perhaps the best 4-pitch arsenal since I started watching baseball in 1972.  But it isn't Felix' body that is the most valuable part of his game.  It is his mind.

He deserves to pitch on a grand stage.  He deserves to be the Game 7 pitcher, the "tiebreaker" icon who causes the 1960's LA Dodgers to be a better team than the 1960's San Francisco Giants.

...........

Felix hit 94 today, was hitting a good consistent 92-93 in the 8th inning, after his pitch count was 100-and-plenty.  He was going to be Pedro if he were at 89 MPH, but it turns out he is not going to be 89 MPH.  Doesn't that feel like Christmas?  :- )  Grumpy, your "guess" is looking pretty good, my man.

Was it just me, or did Felix look a bit heavier?

...........

Felix has 31 strikeouts, 5 walks, and 1 home run allowed in 29 innings.  If he maintained ratios similar to those -- nobody can maintain ratios exactly like them -- he would have easily the best season of his career.

I always thought Felix should be doing better than he was.  Maybe this is the year?

..........

Jim Bouton was given a start late in 1969, after being traded to the Astros.  He pitched a great game and lost in the 10th inning, if I recall correctly.  He said, "I could have cried ... but there wasn't a tear in me."

That'll do for us too.  The glory of Felix Hernandez 2012 far transcends the minor skin burn of a piddling single April loss.  I'm just flat enjoying the 2012 season, gentlemen.

.

Be Afraid.  Be Very Afraid,

Dr D