Kotch=====
Baker has a lengthy explanation (http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2010737969_casey_kotchman_will_get_the_sh.html ) of how Kotchman's mother almost died during the 08 season and has had a long rehab, and that Z apparently thinks this, together with bouncing around among teams with parks that didn't suit him, is what kept the "real" (i.e, 2007) Kotchman from showing up.
In that regard, it's what we've come to see as a classic Z move. They think they see something everyone else is missing. (Obviously, they think that about League, too.) The 07 Kotch was 37 doubles and 53 walks and .840 OPS (.852 OPS vs. RHP). Still short of the vintage Olerud/Grace type of 1b, but a reasonable approximation. And Z does love himself some defense, even at first.
Outfield=====
Churchill's most interesting thing is a little throwaway buried deep in the comments:
"it really sounds like Milton Bradley is going to play a lot of left field -- a 65-35 split with Saunders."
The guy is pretty connected, so I'd say that's probably what is "penciled in" as they head to Arizona. Also see this (pre-Kotch): http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/team/depth_chart/index.jsp?c_id=sea (Tui also a backup SS!? and not at 3b? -- also note that Fister is penciled in at #5.) Kotch goes in ahead of Carp, and it's pretty clear what they're thinking.
Personally, I like this plan of attack. Saunders and Tui on the bench but floating through the Griffey-MB-Kotch less-than-fulltime at-bats. Maybe a fair amount of Lopez at first, with Tui at 2b when Kotch sits. And the usual Z redundancy: if Kotch craters, then Carp; if Saunders struggles, then Langerhans.
It's definitely a Herzog-82 Cardinals, nobody-hit-20-HR-but-they-kept-coming-at-you-and-Bruce-Sutter-never-coughed-up-the-lead approach. George Hendrick led them with 19 HR, but everybody got on base and they had three switch hitters. Create match-up problems for the other team.(They won the World Series, for you yung-uns.)
I suppose until the Ms can get a LH megastar on the roster by hook or crook, I guess it's worth trying.
Good Doc,
Look at the 82' Cards Stats at B-Ref and adding in the additions and subtractions we have made and on paper were a better team. We have two starters who will get 200+ and 180+ SO's.
We have at least 3 batters poised to hit .300+ and no one on the cards had a 200+ hitter!!
Plus Brandon League added to the pen!
The 82 Cardinals offensive ranks in the NL: Batting Avg (2), OBP (1), Doubles (4), Triples (1), Stolen Bases (1)
If the M's hit those ranks, then I'll be a believer that this offense can get the job done. Any takers on the M's matching those ranks?
Spot on Daddy-O.
We remember the Little Blue Bicycle Dodgers chasing the Big Red Machine in 1970-78. Tons of All-Star starters on the Dodgers. Check their offenses, though.
The M's offense right now is pretty depressing. And they consistently look for MLB(TM) retreads like Kotchman, Shannahan et al to freeze out even the dynamic young players like Tui, Saunders, Carp.
Great read, as usual. Thanks man.
Kotchman BTW has a career .303/.354/.408 line in Safeco, which is
(a) remarkably similar to Shandler's projected 2010 line of .275/.340/.403 ... -7 below replacement offense ... and
(b) not dissimilar to Endy Chavez' age-28 year with the Mets, .306/.348/.431. Of course, Chavez made up for the weak AVG/OBP/SLG line by running well and impacting team defense in the outfield.
Picking up a retread like Kotchman is different than, say, getting somebody they will have to commit more to like Delgado. In that sense, I don't think Kotchman freezes anybody out. He will be easily benched. If they had Delgado, a lot more would ride on his success and it would freeze younger players out to a greater degree. Kotchman will provide more roster flexibility and Kotchman won't prevent Z from bringing in those young guys if they start tearing it up. I'd rather have Prince Fielder too, but in terms of freezing out, Kotchman does it a lot less than most.
One of the tricks I used to employ to great benefit when I was playing Fantasy leagues was to (largely) ignore the immediately previous year, and take a strong look at who was strong TWO years ago. The dynamic that this created was playing off the reality that many, many fantasy players get a little "too" hyped on the most immediate production -- be it good, or bad.
When Beltre had his monster explosion in 2004, even though scads of people were skeptical, and much was stated about a vast array of reasons to NOT expect a follow-up, in the end, he got drafted way too high in 2005. SOMEBODY was going to take that gamble. And experienced players, KNOWING that "somebody" would take that gamble, would often tweak their own draft charts upward.
The contrary reality was the career bad year. The "fear" that it wasn't just a bad year, but a career crashing end was already in the back of everyone's mind. The "fear of a Sexsonesque swan dive into early retirement would scare people away from the formerly good draft picks.
I became quite adept at plucking guys like Lowell in later rounds that nobody wanted to "gamble" on. Five good years, one bad year -- suddenly the guy isn't just not a "sure thing", he drops all the way to "gamble".
Many considered Gutz a "gamble", because of his .691 OPS from 2008. But, the same guy posted a .790 in 2007. Z didn't have to "guess" at his upside -- he's ALREADY SEEN his upside. Chavez posted a .779 OPS in 2006. Obviously, not every player repeats whatever his career year happened to be. Some guys get "figured out" and never adjust.
Others struggle for all kinds of reasons, (apathy ... injury ... family issues). I'm certain the selection of Kotchman was not based "solely" on his .840 OPS at age 24. But, I'm certain it played a part in the decision. We aren't talking a phantom season where the numbers are pushed by a one-in-a-lifetime .340 batting average. That .840 OPS came off a .296 BA, (career high - yes -- but he's hit in the .280s a couple of stops since).
I'd argue that Z is "looking" for under-30 guys who have ALREADY posted plus numbers at some point, but for whatever reason have lost their jobs, (or could never win one). Gutz, Langerhans, and now Kotchman. As noted elsewhere - this "type" of player is cheap ... and also very discardable. The 1-year flyer types routinely end up being the "surprise" piece that blossoms and provides the extra production that was "missing". Guys like Gabe Gross or David Dellucci get snagged with impact of a wet sponge on the fans -- right up until they start posting .800 OPS figures for AAA money.
So we have Mike Carp, who was the 8th or 9th most important player in a 12-player deal. Then we have Bill Hall, who was acquired for one non-impact minor leaguer. Hall is traded for Kotchman.
I don't see the concern: Kotch acquired (when you net it out) for virtually nothing vs. Carp, part of a swarm of role players (Vargas, Carrerra) coming over in the Putz-Gutz trade.
Kotchman seems like a minimal-risk project, especially considering:
2005, at 22, vs. RHP: .286/.355/.551/.906 (mostly in Aug. & Sept.)
2006: slow start then DL on May 9
2007, at 24, vs. RHP: .292/.371/.481/.852
2008, at 25: decent start, brutally unlucky stretch (.209 BABIP in June), trade to ATL, Mom's near-death experience
2009, at 26, while with Braves, vs. RHP: .288/.366/.442/.808, then trade to BoSox where he never got on track
Seems to me that when the guy is in a stable situation, he can certainly get on base vs. RHP and he has shown power (admittedly, the SLG trend, even in the selected splits, is not so good).
But "Stable Kotchman" and Ryan Garko look like a pretty good cheap platoon combo. But if "flameout" Kotchman shows up, it's not like Carp is out of options.
And I do think that they WILL commit the resources to a MOTO bat when they find the right "fit" for Safeco (i.e., not Jason Bay) -- anything they do in the meantime is stopgap.