1
Nothing to argue about here. I think I only do a deal this substantial, though if I can get all three years of Upton. Two seems like too narrow of a window right?
Final Answer, Justin?
Time to phone a friend
.
Q. The Mariners ax for a dance, and Upton demurely bats his eyes and shakes his head no ... while meeting the M's gaze expectantly. Maybe he wants to play for a winner?
A. The M's won-loss record has nothing to do with anything. Almost for sure.
Fans on the ESPN boards will talk like, who's the funnest team to play for? Thass' where I wanna go, so that's where the player wants to go. Not hardly. USS Mariner aptly pointed out that Upton's no-trade list has morphed each year, and they always tab those teams he's most likely to be traded to. It's all about "having as much say as possible" in the trade process. Spot on.
.
Q. This is true in theory, or with respect to Upton particularly?
A. It's especially true of Upton. For two years his agent has been going on the radio and saying, hey, would somebody please trade us to a team on our no-trade list!
Reynolds, every time he's on the radio, says "Everything is negotiable." He underlines it, yellow-highlights it and puts little heart-shaped stickers around it. Last year he once said that Upton WOULD accept a trade to the Mariners. He named the Mariners in doing so.
.
Q. That means Upton would come to Seattle?
A. No.
:- ) Not necessarily.
Like ten years ago, Fred McGriff was traded from Tampa to the Cubs ... he took, what, a month before finally deciding to go. I don't suppose it would be a lot different from you, if you got a great offer to take a job in (let's say) Honolulu. Time to phone a friend, ask the audience, and give your Final Answer.
.
Q. What do you suppose he wants from Seattle in order to okay the deal?
A. This one, I'm more in need of help myself, than able to help anybody else. Terry maybe?
First guess: turning 2015 into a player option, so that Upton can hit FA one year sooner. That would be huge. And that would be extremely revolting for the M's, who are giving up a "substantial package of young talent" (shudder!!).
Or, maybe he wants to sign a long-term deal. That would not be extremely revolting, because Upton is a player to build around.
You tell me what Upton is wanting. Certainly personal dialogue is included: where do you see me hitting in the lineup? You going to play me 155 games per year, and am I going to get special treatment? Will there be mandolins and violins on my charter flights?, and stuff like that. Zduriencik seems to be good at recruiting.
.
Q. How eager is SSI to hitch its wagon to Upton, long term?
A. As Dr. D has slept on it some, he's warmed up to it more and more.
- Upton isn't a wrecking machine with the bat, but Morales PLUS Upton hits the difference-maker bar
- Previously the $20M RHB In Safeco Problem was a decisive problem; it isn't, now
- If Upton doesn't have to be the whole offense, well, the 3-6 WAR (in this case) are solid
- A close look at his component skills leave you optimistic (Upton's not going to forget how to hit the ball hard)
Upton hasn't been a Straw That Stirs, all by himself -- but he doesn't have to be. Morales is just as liable to give you a .300-30-100 season in his walk year. IF AND ONLY IF you've got another legit bat to go with Upton, I'm good.
.
Q. SSI projects an UP season in 2013?
A. I think everybody does. BaseballHQ is thinking 2011 "or more." Taro calls a breakout also, and you know he's got a 2050 almanac back there somewhere.
Once you realize that the only real underlying problem in 2012 was a power outage, things clear up. It ain't like Justin Upton is going to wake up one day and find his biceps have gone missing.
...........
You've got a kid who, in his early 20's, has been alternately worth 5-6 WAR and 2-3 WAR for four years. It pretty much looks like the 5-WAR scenario going forward.
And, as a completely separate issue, there is bustout potential. You are justified in dreaming about a 7-WAR situation at his peak. He could go 40 HR's, excellent defense, excellent baserunning (scoring 100+ runs also), become a legit superstar. And if he doesn't, he's still a 6.0 runs-per-27 outfielder who helps his pitchers.
Dr. D originally was lukewarm on Upton, but .... the more you look, the more you like. His true potential has probably just been camouflaged a bit, due to this-and-that. Unhappy, bad thumb, learning curve, yada yada. Buy low, babe, and reap the benefits.
We all want Stanton, but if you had Upton in the middle of the order AND another bat helping him out, then sure. The lineup is fixed and let's get those young pitchers rollin'.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
2
Upton screams prima-donna. I am no cyber guy, but my gut says "no". My gut said "yes" when reading about Russell Wilson. Seattle needs guys that are hungry and want to play baseball. Upton just wants to get paid and not have to do any heavy lifting.
This was a godsend of a decision. Let the 2013 M's year play out. Stanton has to be traded at some point. Maybe the four we offered end up being much better ball players in three years. Might as well find out. I don't want people on the M's team just for the money. There is no love for the game, so no love for the fans.
Griffey, Buhner, even Johnson early on... loved baseball and made Seattle a place to play it. Find those guys. Let Upton rot.
3
It's not like he's holding out for a free agent deal. It's gotta be for expensive tacked on years or something (and the years we'd be getting aren't the cheap ones that were on that contract he signed). I guess it could be for quicker FA.
Still, I'm not opposed to Upton. Depending on the price, naturally. For the rumored Furbush/Pryor/Franklin/Big One... I'd hope we were getting a throw in. ;-)
And I agree with the thought that KMo plus Upton really solidifies the offense for this season. Especially if Ackley and Montero take a step forward. With Zunino and Miller both in the upper minors and knocking on the door, we'd start to look really healthy. As long as our new 2013 MOTO produces, anyway.
~G
4
And Randy was one of the worstest teammates evah. Not everybody's gonna be a saint. Maybe Upton is a selfish jerk (or a lazy check-collector, as you suggest) and that's why they keep trying to trade him, but he's no Hanley Ramirez or some others.
If I could get a team of Edgars together I would, but don't we already have enough deferential nice guys? We have a whole team of em. Carp had some of the only attitude on the team.
A little bad-boy swagger wouldn't be the worst thing for chemistry, IMO. I'm not sure what Upton's problem is or why they keep trying to get rid of him while simultaneously never doing so, but there are times beggars can't be choosers.
So you gotta trade your #2 pitcher for somebody else's blocked DH/C, or your #4 for a one year DH/1B... or spend a lot of capital to get a talented guy with a personality risk.
I would do something else first, but we've obviously spent the offseason trying other thing after other thing and none of them came to fruition. Desperate times and all. We can hold our capital, but if a pitcher blows out his arm or a hitter fails to hit then the value plummets. Didn't trade Catricala and he's now worthless on the market. Did trade Campos and Pineda, and they both blew a tire right after they left.
When to cash out is a very dicey call. We'll see what happens with this one and where we go from here, but Jack doesn't get points for winning minor league talent shows. All that does is give the next GM a nicely stocked system. If you think you can add talent at will, as Jack has everywhere he's been, then what's a couple of minors leaguers, more or less, against the ability to win some and keep his job?
If the perfect deal doesn't come along, then you gotta make an imperfect one work out for you. Hopefully he can.
~G
5
Z and Towers knew this would happen.
It is January and there have been NO other serious offers for Upton. Towers still has plenty of time to trade Upton, and is not exactly selling high after Upton's '12 season.
Z simply made an offer that Towers could not refuse and both are betting that Upton, in the end, accepts his only chance to leave AZ right now.
The GMs are betting that Upton wants out bad enough to waive that NTC, perhaps with a few cursory tweaks in order to save face.
Texas and StL, it seems, are waiting for either the price to come down on Upton or to open the bidding for Stanton. That's just fine. The M's seem to be the only ones left for Upton. I guess we will soon find out how badly he wants out of AZ.
6
He's not in position to ask for anything else and I'd agree with Gordon - more years would be expensive years. That's probably fair as he'd be trading free agency for the more money. I can't see why they won't work something out unless, of course, he's been to Seattle in June.
7
Changing a losing culture isn't going to come from waiting for the perfect option most times. I know a few people who are single most of the time just waiting for perfect. I wonder if they'd even know what to do anymore once they found it, since they'd be so out of practice.
Waiting for Stanton limits the teams options next year since they'll still be viewed as a team that's not doing enough to try to win. Stanton or bust is not a winning mentality. This team, this year needs another bat, Stanton apparently can't be that, so they need to keep looking. If Stanton becomes available I'm certainly onboard, but waiting for Stanton is a lot lazier than anything Upton has been.
8
Does he prefer being a free agent in 2, 3, 4 or 5 years? Is he looking to turn it into a 7 year or longer deal? Maybe he's hoping for 10 years total but willing to accept a bit shorter. Maybe he wants to leave it at 3 years but wants $20 million + per. There are so many different directions that could appear logical to me on what Upton wants. I think I'd be looking for $100million over 5 to get an opportunity to have another big deal at 30, 31 (depending how you view age/year). What is his stance though?
9
So...yeah...this deal was a waste of time arguing about...he doesn't like Seattle.
10
It seems to me that Upton dismissed this trade... Out. Of. Hand. I don't see ANY indication that Z was given the oppurtunity to do ANY negotiating with Upton. It looks like to me that Z and Towers set it up went to Upton to figure out how to get around the NTC and Upton was like, "Uhhhhh..... nooooooooooo way!" Wierd.
So if it was a fore gone conclusion in Upton's mind that the NTC for Seattle was iorn clad, then Z and Towers had to of known that as well, which means this whole thing was a shell game... for the press? To get media buzz? To set up another domino somewhere else? A creative way to signal to Miama, hey we got prospects and we ARE going to spend them, if you want some, better get em while their hot!???
The whole things seems very fishy to me (pun intended ;) )
11
yeah, i was watching that too. He also said he hadn't talked to his brother or Upton about it. his comments were sweeping "he put then on his no trade list, he doesn't want to play there..." not specific at all. It may be entirely true that he just doesn't want to play here, but Reynolds want offering inside information, just his insight into what he thinks a no trade clause means. It's honestly a foreign concept to him, there weren't many limited ones in his time in the game and he certainly didn't warrant one.
Hot stove starts again in a couple minutes if you want to review that he specifically says he hasn't talked to Justin or Larry about the no trade.
12
Perhaps Justin doesn't want to play in Seattle, but why would we want to play in Arizona? My interpretation is that Justin has a strongly preferred destination that he thinks is still in play. Towers is telling Justin, "No way, Seattle's offer is much better!" And Justin is replying, "I'd rather share a clubhouse with Kirk Gibson, than go to Seattle!" My guess is Justin would actually rather play in Seattle than Arizona for the next three years, but he thinks he can be difficult enough to make Arizona take the lesser deal.
13
He clearly states that no trade means no trade. This shows he is speaking in general and out his ass. He doesn't understand that no trade can mean leverage. Yankees and Red Sox were both on his list last year, I'm sure he was avoiding those bottom feeders.
14
It seems like the Mariners will have some money available this year, even after this trade. 2-3 million "signing bonus" you say?
15
Guys - hang in there with me on this, cuz' I'm really not trying to prove Bigfoot killed Oswald here....
The Mariners are always tight lipped about everything. Right? EVERYTHING. But the M's are ALWAYS - NO COMMENT - on any trades proposals, ESPECIALLY the ones that do not work. Jack has made it a point NEVER to include names.
Yet for THIS trade proposal, we know EVERY name.
Now at first we would say, yeah but the Diamondbacks are in volved too, so Towers is talking... BUT this story is on the Mariner's web site. This story is on Shannon's blog. This story has even had Jack himself talk about it. AND we know EVERY name. It's like the Mariner's are broadcasting this story... and the Mariners are fanning the flames too, by trying to keep people talking about this story.
Harold Reynolds is talking up the fact that UPTON does NOT want to come to Seattle EVER? Harold Reynolds, MLB TV Host.
What is going on?
This isn't a little blip on the radar - or a slight veer off course - or taking the long way home -... this is 4+ years of acting one way... and then doing the EXACT opposite. This is doing what you have sworn you would never do. WHY?
I am sure this is not for Upton.
I am sure this is not for Jack trying to prove to the fan base he is doing something, because there are still many things he can still do over the next month plus to show this.
I am sure this is not mistake either though.
The only thing that makes ANY sense to me is that Jack is doing this to get the attention of the MLB or the commissioner.
I am sure there are reasons to do this... like take pressure off the Marlins so they can make a trade, or get a first round draft pick next year, or ???
I am open to your suggestions and comments.
16
Towers is famous, FAMOUS, for talking to the media. Before this offseason he literally sat down with the press and said Oh, yeah, I need a shortstop and a third baseman and some relievers, and I'm looking to trade an outfielder to get them, and Upton and Bauer are available if someone blows me away but I'm not actively trying to move them.
Of course it's on Shannon's blog and the Mariners' website. It's huge news. The Mariners front office doesn't control the website or Shannon's blog, it's just that Shannon and Greg Johns thought that this was worth talking about. Ethier rumors have been everywhere, too. Remember that Bauer trade, where the media knew EVERY player just as it was happening? Those are the only two trades that's happened for this winter. Wonder what the common factor was... hint: not Jack Z.
I really, really doubt the M's changed course on this one. Heck, Z refused to discuss it in public, calling it a "trade rumor" and not even mentioning Upton by name. Bet you money it was Towers--or it was Upton's agent, trying to provoke Upton's preferred target Atlanta into bidding higher.
17
Harold said he didn't know if that was the case but it might be. All he said he knew is that they were on his no trade list. He said he hasn't talked to his brother our Justin about why, but if they're on hits no trade list he doesn't want to go there. That's speculation, not inside information.
18
Conspicuous by his absense in this entire conversation is Mr Conspiracy.
Geoff has not posted anything in 4 days, and yet the Mariner website has 3 LEAD stories and 2 video clips on Upton turning us down on the top of their front page....
So how is it in the Mariners BEST INTERESTS to keep this story going on?
They are not even trying to change the subject.
In fact the billboard just south of Safeco is being updated today to say that NO ONE wants to come to Seattle... so turn out the lights on the way out of town
19
Baker is on vacation. Overseas, IIRC.
20
is not run by the mariners.
Unless you're talking about "from the corner of Edgar and Dave" which doesn't even have a post about Upton. That's the only site I know of that's run by the mariners anyway.
21
interesting... I wonder why.
22
The mlb.com website is run by mlb advanced media for the Ms with input from the Mariners communications folks, but Greg Johns & co. do not have to run the content by the club. The Corner of Edgar and Dave site is, in fact, the only club-controlled-content one (and other than using Scribd is a good one).