Interesting Doc. A Baseball-Reference check shows that Ichiro was on first base nine more times (not counting FC's where he ended up on first) in 2010 than 2009. Those 9 times translated into 16 more steals. Could Figgins have influenced that? Probably.
However, Figgins Sept. performance is probably pretty typical of the best month in a season for a guy with Figgins overall stats. It sin't necessarily a harbinger of a much improved 2011.
my problem with Figgins remains that he has had two very nice seasons in the last five. Those two were powered by outlier type statistics in critical areas. in 2007 he had a BABIP that was completely beyond his norm and one that he will not approach again. It was .391, for goodness sakes! In '09 he had his 2nd best career BABAP (.356) AND his most walks in a season (101..27 more than this year, his second highest total).
I just don't see him duplicating any of those numbers. And so we're stuck with an $8M 80-90 OPS, average fielding 2B/3B.
That's a lot of clams that might be better spent elsewhere.
I've resigned myself to the fact that Z threw Wak under the bus to keep his $8M man. Compounding an error with another doesn't make the first decision any better.
Moe
Dr. Naka says ...
Ichiro made clear that his 40+ SB in 2010 was because Figgins hit #2.
He said Figgins did not make a foul at bat when he took for 2nd base. In 2009 he had many fouls from Beltre.
Something cyber-friends should find out...
That Ichiro could not score in 2010 with his OBP and SB is another story.
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We saw many, many times in 2009 when Ichiro had a base stolen and the #2, often Beltre, swung at a *bad* pitch and fouled it off.
These were often -- usually -- swings that made no sense at all. 2-0 sliders way out of the strike zone and stuff like that. Beltre obviously had zero interest in cooperating with Ichiro.
Ichiro of course was sensitive to this, though he said little. He is used to a little different team attitude when winning championships at the WBC.
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Figgins is of course one of baseball's most patient hitters, allowing Ichiro the luxury of working his game against the pitcher and catcher ...
But here were the M's #3, #4 and #5 hitters on the season by slot:
- #3 -- .227 / .303 / .402
- #4 -- .238 / .292 / .375
- #5 -- .210 / .259 / .297
- #0 -- .265 / .315 / .335 (Willie Bloomquist)
How is it even possible for an American League team to get a .200+ SLG out of its 5 slot, over the course of 162 games?
The #5 hitters were mostly Kotchman, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez and Ken Griffey.
The #4 hitter was Jose Lopez for 90 games, with help from Franklin Gutierrez and Milton Bradley. Russ Branyan hit there for 17 games, "raising" the performance to its lofty 66 OPS+.
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You would literally have been better off, in 2010, to have three Willie Bloomquists take 575 x 3 AB's for you in the 3-4-5 slots. Now, that is history.
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Nakajima actually hit #2 behind Ichiro in the WBC, and the results weren't all that bad. Nakajima hit extremely well with Ichiro on base.
He may be a talented hitter, but he's RH, not particularly patient, and not particularly an inside-out, off-field hitter. Figgins gives you a lefty bat who gives Ichiro the full five to outsmart the pitcher.
Still, it's interesting to me that given a choice between his WBC #1-2 tag team partner, and the more-patient Figgins, Ichiro might well prefer the extra pitches to the obvious chemistry ....
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Dr. Naka's comment may provide a little insight, as to why Zduriencik threw Wakamatsu under the bus and retained Chone Figgins, when it became an either/or.
Given Figgins' September hitting -- a 115 OPS+ via his .320 AVG, .375 OBP and near-.400 SLG -- the patient, LH* Figgins is an ideal #2 hitter behind the M's HOF leadoff man.
Zduriencik must be figuring, well, get the other 7 guys and I'll be fine.
Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
Though it's not necessarily Figgins' .375 OBP in Sept. 2010 we're looking at ... it's that Figgins' OBP was .375 throughout 2007-09.
His September 2010 was a resurfacing of the 2007-09 player, which I guess is better than if the old Figgins had never resurfaced at all...
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Not that I can disagree with your more critical take on the motivation there :- )
the lower stolen base total last year had little to do with who was batting behind Ichiro (Russell Branyan and Franklin Gutierrez, who both ran high pitch counts last year, accounted for 638 of the 2/3 lineup spot PAs, compared to 568 from Lopez and Beltre). I think it had more to do with the calf strain he suffered in late August (an injury I think he had been playing with as his SB Rate for the 2009 is the 2nd worst of his career). In September, he only attempted to steal a base 6.7% of the time, compared to 16.5% the rest of the season (these are lmost certainly low I simply added hits/walks/hbps and subtracted HRs and triples, so I don't account for runner on situations, but I think they're accurate enough for the example).
That's not to say that having a batter up who fouls off a lot of pitches isn't annoying for a runner, but I think the low steal / low success rate of 2009 had more to do with Ichiro's leg strain (and perhaps his bleeding ulcer) than with bad swings from Adrian Beltre and Jose Lopez. I mean, it's not as if Ichiro knows what will and won't be a strike before the pitcher throws it, so the fact that Lopez and Beltre (who only had 150 PAs in the 2/3 spot by the way) swung at sliders away really shouldn't have had much affect. Consider all the times both players missed said pitch and made it all the more difficult for the catcher to deliver a throw. Honestly, the best batter to put behind Ichiro, in terms of giving him opportunities to steal, would be a batter that hits a low percentage of pitches he swings at, and doesn't swing at balls. Oh wait, Russell Branyan got 251 PAs in the 2 spot in '09.
As far as Figgins chances to bounce back next year, he did have the 2nd lowest BABiP of his career this year.