With apologies to Detect-O-Vision, which first adapted spaghetti-western shtick for its own (ab)use.

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=== The Bad ===

Let this saying sink deeeeep into your ears:  Felix Hernandez' fastball is only about as effective as Doug Fister's.

This does not mean that a blurry-fast pitch is inferior to one that floats.  It means, rather, that there is something wrong with Felix' macro strategy.

As Hal-9000 (or Dr. D, we forget which) once said about his failing brain, there is no question about this.  The macro strategy, we mean.

• -0.84 ... Felix' run value per 100 fastballs, 2011 (negative values are bad)
• +0.07 ... Fister's runs per 100 heaters, 2011
• +0.40 ... Felix' run value per 100 fastballs, lifetime
• +0.36 ... Fister's runs per 100, life

Granted, in Felix' great 2009-10 seasons, Felix' fastball run value was strong, about +1.00 or so.  But even in those years, it was only his 3rd-best pitch.  Felix' heater has never been better than about his #3 pitch.  

That's not an opinion; that's clocked, by Fangraphs.

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The essential nature of the "problem" (harumph) is that about 80% of Felix' pitches are thrown at the same speed, 89-94 mph.

On Tuesday, Brooks had his "changeup" at 89.9 mph average, which is the same as Fangraphs has it over the past few years.  That's not a "changeup"; it's a fastball that dives 8 inches.  Which is a great pitch, but which certainly does not prevent the hitters from arm-swinging at exactly the same moment during each pitch.

Felix' only real change-speed weapon Tuesday was his slider.  It arrives at 86-88 mph.  Let me assure you that this is also not enough to discourage hitters from cheat-swinging as though they were in a batting cage.  His slider often drops out of the zone, and he throws it semi-rarely, so hitters can afford to sort of ignore it.

Felix' curve legitimately changes speed.  But guess how many times he threw it Tuesday?  Five (5) times.

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I can't bear to watch Felix stand out there on the mound, trying to hit finer and finer and FINER targets with a loooonnnnnng string of 89-94 pitches that have to be laser-guided to succeed.  There is no way he should be laboring as much as he is.

It's a funny thing:  his first few years, he was way overconfident, and centered tons of challenge FB's up in the zone.  But we haven't seen a challenge fastball since the Mayan calendar.  Now he is nibbling.  

There's a happy medium, kid:  change speed on the power guys, and throw 4-seamers up to the non-HR guys.  

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My wife asked me if the Cy went to his head, or something?  Just the opposite.  He's out there putting his soul into every bloomin' perfect pitch.  Arrrggggh.  If he wanted to work that hard, he shoulda just blogged for a UZR-designed baseball team.

All year, only once has Felix struck out more than six batters.  His swing-and-miss ratio is easily the lowest of his career (Doug Fister's and his SW% are converging in the middle at 8%).  The dude is laboring.

.........

I don't know what the answer is, except that if I were him I'd be pitching to miss bats instead of hit them -- 4-seam non-sinking FB's high in the zone, with an extra 2 mph, as opposed to 94fastballs at the knees.  

Miguel Cabrera up and your sense of danger is on alert?  Change speed.  Yer don't have ter nibble and get behind.

Felix is great, but you tell me why hitters are so comfortable against him.  They were real slow to get into the box against Clemens and Seaver.

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=== The Good ===

Felix' FIP and xFIP are actually lower than in 2010, so don't misunderstand us here.  We're not exactly saying that Larry is useless.  

SSI is just mystified at the way that baseball frequently seems to be such an uphill climb for this guy.  Was Godzilla ever sucking wind when knocking over skyscrapers?  How often did Roger Clemens look like he didn't know what to throw next?

Felix threw 40 pitches in the first two innings Tuesday.  In the fourth, he gave back a 3-1 lead the same inning that Smoak gave it to him.  He went over 100 pitches in the 6th.  I felt like I was at the dentist's, watching him "struggle".

.........

His concentration is enough to bring tears to your eyes.  Felix Hernandez is every blinkin' inch the warrior that Ichiro Suzuki is.  Or that a prizefighter is.

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Felix doesn't miss bats quite the way he should, but SSI has got to admit that he has found a very consistent game.  In five out of six starts, he has yielded 2 runs or less.  .... last year, his last 11 starts, he allowed 0 or 1 run in all but one game.  Check out these 2010 game logs.

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=== The Ugly ===

The defense behind Felix has left much to be desired (such as, for instance, good defense).  The BABIP behind Felix should be .270, as it was in 2009 and 2010.  But this year, it's .299.

What is Jack Zduriencik supposed to do?  He's got two GG shortstops and Chone Figgins behind an extreme groundballer.

No doubt Felix is finding his groove, and is about to rip off 20 straight lockdown starts.  Don't mind my quibbling; it can't be easy on him having to pitch in Michael Pineda's shadow.

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BABVA,

Dr D

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