Seattle Sports Insider

Felix 6 years, $110 mill ?

Posted by

9/29/09

I/O: Brandon Webb linked to the Mariners. Webb has stated that he will not entertain offers from the D-Backs, who will not pick up his option. Yowza.

The commenter Sanders thinks the Dodgers make sense and the M's don't, apparently based on the subtext that the Dodgers are cool and the M's ain't.

CRUNCH: As you know, I err on the optimistic side when it comes to Cy Young-caliber pitchers returning from real bad arm injuries.

Chris Carpenter is the latest example -- out 2 full years and then SPLASH, a (gasp) 181 ERA+ right off the bat. These guys know how to pitch.

Interesting that Webb is linked to Seattle on a 2-team list. As far as I can tell, Capt Jack is not averse to NL players. :- )

........

Zduriencik has spoken in friendly terms about Erik Bedard; my take on that is that Z's paradigm is that of winning the World Series.

With Felix and Bedard, the Mariners had two of the most extreme K + GB pitchers in the major leagues. Now you'd be talking about a 7K pitcher with farcical GB rates.

Other guys visualize $/WAR sheets. I visualize Felix, Bedard, and Brandon Webb destroying the Yankees in October.

........

I/O: Buster Olney with a superb video blog on Felix' future in Seattle. Olney spoke with Felix' agent, and with MLB execs, regarding Felix' chances to re-sign, what the cost would be, and the M's chances.

Olney got the vibe from several execs that if Felix hits the market at 25 as an unrestricted free agent, then he would be likely to score a market-busting contract that far exceeded CC Sabathia's 8/$161M.

... Felix will be only 25 years old, is getting better and better, and there would be few worries that he'd be giving downside years at the end of the contract. OUR response to that theory is irrelevant. The pertinent factor here is that GM's would perceive Felix as being verrrrrry low-risk and with remaining upside -- so emotions would kick in.

..........

On the other hand, Olney relates GM's opinions that $10-14M per would be fair for Felix in his last two arb years, and that $20-22M per would land him for the 3-4 years following.

6 years, $100-110M is the estimate we get for Felix' extension, which is perceived by the GM's to be do-able in terms of Felix' signability.

CRUNCH: a 6/$110M deal would leave Felix able to hit the market again before he was 30 years old -- as well as having his $100M secured right now.

Let's keep in mind that Felix is advised by an agent who wants to lock in his commission, and who is well aware that stuff (like a rotator cuff) happens. Don't minimize Nero's motivation to lock in that first $100M deal, especially since it would be a full two years until the $200M deal loomed.

..........

6/$110M is very exciting from the M's point of view. Forget about whether Felix is technically an arb player. What he is right now, is a HOF-level pitcher who rips off 20-start streaks of awesomeness.

After Olney's fine report on the industry consensus, I'm enthused about the M's chances to lock Felix in for another five-six years before the big auction.

..........

If they get signals Felix won't play ball at the 6/$110M type level, then Capt Jack has a unique opportunity to remake the face of the franchise in a 4-for-1, 5-for-1 blockbuster.

He wouldn't be getting back prospects. He'd be getting back his pick of ML-ready impact players.

Either way, we win. Should be a mondo fun offseason.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

Pardon me

While I wipe the drool off my chin...
Felix-Webb-Bedard would be just evil.
If Felix would do 6/$110MM, that's a no brainer. I guess I remain skeptical that that would get it done. My gut tells me that won't do it, and Z won't go too crazy on Felix money, and will take some monster prospect package before he backs the Brinks truck up to Felix' pad.
Problem with that is, what teams can offer a prospect package that could get it done? I don't know other farm systems, but I'm guessing the Yanks & RSox couldn't make it happen. So you're looking at the Dodgers and the second tier of Baseball orgs - Cubs, I dunno, Atlanta, Saint Louis, um... Astros? Anyone got any ideas about what orgs could feasibly trade for Felix?

Pardon me

LOL

Yes...Felix/Webb/Bedard/pick two from Snell/Morrow/RRS = holy crap!
But that will never ever happen. Sorry to kill the joy, but Webb is linked to the Mariners as their fallback plan for team ace if they have to trade King Felix for 5 kids. You could probably trade him to the Dodgers for something like:
Chad Billingsley / Matt Kemp / Jonathan Broxton and a couple of nice prospect.
And then sign Webb...and the Mariners are a better team despite the loss of their ace for a more uncertain quantity.
I would be fine with a rotation of Webb/Bedard/Billingsley/RRS/Snell and a line-up of:
RF) Ichiro
LF) Kemp
1B) Branyan
DH) Free Agent or trade for Dunn
CF) Gutierrez
3B) Lopez
3B) Tuiasosopo
C) Moore/Johnson
SS) Free Agent or trade

Seattle Is Cool

I would never say Seattle isn't as cool as L.A., I've lived here almost all my life.
Would I love to see Webb wearing a M's uniform? Hell yes. Do I think there is actually a chance of it happening? Not really.

My bad Zach

Thanks for chiming in. :- )
We painted you with the East Coast media brush there, assuming that you were blowing off Seattle because it's Seattle. Appreciate your clarifying.
:daps:

Ya, the article mentioned Webb in place of Felix

IIRC.
If you got a TOR like Billingsley and a fleet 5-tool banger like Kemp, and added Webb, you would have a better baseball team. And by quite a ways.
Not that am endorsing, but wonder whether the Dodgers would consider a Billingsley/Kemp type package.

Usually the baloney offered is that

...only a couple of teams have the prospects to trade for the item of the moment, say, Jarrod Washburn.
The reality is that 30 MLB teams have dozens of interesting prospects.
............
But for once, I'll agree that the list of teams with the jack to land Felix could be limited. And that is because Capt Jack won't want prospects -- he'll want players who are ready to make an impact right now.
And that's a shorter list of teams.
This winter we'll have to do some noodling on that :- )

Once again we remind

That the Mariners can, and sometimes do, flex their payroll when they like a player scenario. They were going to flex it big time for ARod, and have talked that about other players as well.
People say the M's couldn't possibly have afforded Dunn last winter, but guess what, they called and talked to Dunn late in the offseason. They're frequently in on the negotiations for very expensive players -- but consistently want 20% off.
The Mariners make more than they admit, on the order of 10's of millions a season. If Brandon Webb will take a short-term make-good deal then the M's can land both him and Felix.

That said I'd like to know what Joh's status is

I've been hoping, for no particular reason, that all this playing time for Johjima is part of an understanding they've reached with him. You know, let me showcase my talent, and then we'll either see what the market is in Japan, or around baseball.
I can hope, right? :- )
..............
Once again, for late arrivers, Dr. D is Kenji Johjima's biggest fan, and rues the fact that he was received so unfairly by this ballclub when he got here.

I fail to see the logic of

I fail to see the logic of the Dodgers dealing Kemp, Billingsley, and Broxton for Felix.
Kemp is an emerging superstar and as valuable as Felix on his own. Plus he doesn't require a $100 million dollar immediate extension, and doesn't come with the injury risk that all starting pitchers bring to the table.
Plus they are going to throw in Billingsley and Broxton?
In this age of baseball where young talent is being valued at an alltime high, M's will never get true fair value for Felix. If he is dealt it is most likely for an emerging young player already on an ML roster (but not on the level of Kemp) and prospects.
Nobody is giving up the best CF in baseball for the 2009 season, a cheap #2 or #3 type like Billingsley and a top 5 reliever.

Good comment as always NYM

... though I'm not quite the Matt Kemp fan that you are.
The guy's highest OPS+ ever is 125; his EYE ratios are terrible; he hits RH; he hits in the NL; he's not far off of his big payday either.
But yeah. It's tough to ask teams to give up star 3rd- and 4th-year players. More likely is the kind of player just on the cusp, like the Buccholz types.

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