Q. Could Erikkkk come back and make 25-30 starts a year for several years?
A. As George "Iceman" Gervin used to say, whereas SSI ain't that fast, here to there ... their gig is ziggin' and zaggin'.
Through the pattern recognition.
For me, this question is about the same one as the question, "Of the ten pitchers most like Erik Bedard right now, how many came back strong?" Answer this question, and you answer the other one.
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Q. Who are the comparables?
A. You're not going to get agreement on it. :- )
You mention Max Scherzer, or Brandon Morrow, with their shoulder problems, or Roger Clemens and his labrum surgery, and they'll go "They didn't miss time after four years of starting in the big leagues. We need somebody who was established and got hurt at like 27."
Okay, you say, and compare Erikkkk to Curt Schilling, who had a labrum at age 28 after being an All-Star, and they'll go, "Well, he's right-handed and big."
Okay, so let's do Pedro Martinez, who was hurt three major times and came back huge every time, and it's "Well, he's too good. You need somebody ..."
You try Chris Carpenter, who had two completely different 2-year blackouts, one a labrum and one the TJ exactly like Erikkk ... and who came back to own the NL with a 17-4, 2.24 season and they'll find a reason he doesn't match.
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You mention Sheets and Harden, and those guys count. Because they washed out. :- )
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Q. Who does SSI intuit to be the comparable?
A. I remember a whale of a lot of guys like my boyhood hero Don Gullett, who had a very similar career arc to Erikkkk ... if Bedard now decided to never pitch again. Baseball's stuffed with those guys.
I remember Butch Henry, a saber fave of mine who conceded "I'm a good pitcher; I just have really lousy connective tissue...."
Erikkkk is making me squirm in my seat about Henry...
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Q. Is there any single medical reason that Bedard can't return as the best pitcher in the league?
A. No. Not that we can see from here, and not that the M's can tell from the inside, since they keep giving him contracts.
Obviously the 2002-03 TJ is a non-issue at this point. Bedard's labrum was reported to be less severe than the "average labrum," such as Chris Carpenter's.
But I'm thinking about the Henry problem: "bad connective tissue," as Butch put it.
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