I know nobody axed us, but if anybody did...
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Q. Does Erik Bedard have a high pain tolerance?
A. In 2009, he fanned 10 hitters -- American League (TM) hitters -- per game with a trashed labrum.
I've slightly injured my labrums doing bench flyes and it is a deep, down bone-in ache in addition to the electric pain when you bend an injured labrum the wrong way.
Bedard got a rep for phantom pain because the doctors couldn't find the problemo. Picture yourself in that situation...
When Bedard has gone onto the DL, the next number in this sequence has not been 15 (day DL). It has been major surgery.
Bedard looks like he's in pain at all times, especially when answering questions like "What did you learn from the homer you gave up in that 6-1 win?" I believe him.
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All pro athletes have high pain tolerance compared to you and me. The running and lifting alone is more than most of us can hack for more than, say, ten years at a time.
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Q. Do you buy into the buzz around the re-sign?
A. Am gingerly sliding the probability to 40% that the M's wrap him up in February.
They've talked to him sweet all winter. And what has always been intriguing to me, is that there has been a complete absence of outside contact. I mean, why no offers whatsoever from the Mets or Tigers or Rainiers on MLBTradeRumors.com?
... the time is right for Jack to smile nicely and ask, "So, Erik, how does $25 an hour sound? I mean, only if you feel it's a win-win all the way around."
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The recent Twitters and stuff, I interpret that to mean lower-level M's employees are hearing around the halls that the M's are talking numbers with Erik.
The uprising of protest from the beat writers, "Hey this rumor is way out of hand," I interpret to mean that the writers are wistfully dreaming of an Erik-less clubhouse to walk into. Hey, I could be wrong.
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Q. The reports are good.
A. Yeah -- in theory, Bedard might only miss five or six starts. He certainly came back early in 2009.
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Q. Who knows if he'll be the same pitcher.
A. Once again, he fanned 10 men per game last year with ground glass in his shoulder. He's not going to forget how curl around, lean back, and tight-spin a breaking ball.
Of course his arm is going to be stronger than it was in his last 17 innings with the M's, in which he fanned 25 hitters. His shoulder had to have felt like Jell-O.
Various times around 2001-02, I refused to roto-draft Pedro Martinez because his arm always seemed to be hanging by a thread. Now that he's 40 or 50 years old, he's all the way down to 7-8 K's a game.
TRUST me on this one. If Bedard can take the mound, he's going to torment enemy hitters.
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Q. He can only go 5 innings.
A. Yeah, when he's being prepped for surgery, he's only good for about 5 IP, 8 strikeouts and two tubs of ice.
Click this link and scan down the IP column. That's his last healthy season, 2007.
Man, of all the things we've ever heard, to slag a guy for giving you 5 innings with a torn labrum....
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Q. Pretty nice #3 behind The Greatest Pitching Prospect Who Ever Lived and Mr. World Series?
A. Do yourself a favor. Click this link and scan down the ER column.
That's v.0.6, with the ripped muscles in the shoulder. Yeah, I wanna see v.1.0.
Yowch, Anaheim in here Friday-Saturday-Sunday June 4-5-6, with Felix, Lee, and Bedard on the docket? Tell me that wouldn't restore the Joy of Baseball?
Cheers,
Dr D
I would love for the $1.5 plus incentives to be true. At that price, Bedard is a much more affordable #1SP(c) than Sheets and/or Harden, and has an even chance at matching their total IP (including the postseason, of course :)
Thanks for all the great work, Doc, and all the great contributions. SSI really made this offseason fly by. If this team is half as much fun to follow during the season as it was out of it, we are all in for a great one.
Ya, we are lighting fires with wet newspaper, compared to once they're actually playing baseball and stuff :- )
$1.5 compared to $10-13 for Sheets and 2/$16-22 for Harden? Must be $8m in incentives, I guess...
One thing about it, Bedard is the LHP in Safeco. Would love to see him right, with 9+ K's, a big GB rate and Safeco defending the fly balls... he'd run like a 2.82 ERA or something.
Oh yeah, that's what his ERA was in '09. The M's could have one of those teams with three SP's in the top 5 in ERA, like the Dodgers who used to haunt my Big Red Machine.
You'd see a mediocre team roll in, like the Jays or somebody, and the M's just pole-ax them 1-2-3 and never be behind all series.
and hope the Ms worked a 2011 option in there somewhere. :-) Honestly can't wait for the season to start and might have to make a swing to AZ as well as I've never done the ST thing.
Rumors seem to be getting stronger as USSM and ProspectInsider both saying it sounds like it is happening very soon for 1.5-2m base plus incentives. I am truly amazed that the local press is blinded by their disdain for Bedard and justifies it by claiming it is a bad idea for the Ms. Honestly, it is their job to at least know the facts and report them but instead I hear comments like Bedard took $8m from them last year and gave them nothing in return (Paul Silvi on ESPN 710 yesterday).
...Bedard gave them about what he was paid in terms of on-field value. So...the media are full of idiots.
but he is held accountable for what Bavasi traded for him, which is ridiculous. Instead of being applauded for pitching thru pain, he is criticized for being hurt and not pitching 7 innings. Always amazes me how the propoganda machine affects the masses.
Are there any players in recent history to come back from a torn labrum and actually pitch well the following season? The 2011 prognosis may be good, but what can we realistically expect 10-12 months removed from that type of injury and surgery. Color me pessimistic about this one. I still think we need to make another move for the rotation.
When you start looking around for pitchers who've had labrum surgery and returned to action about a year later -- recent examples, because medical science is always advancing -- you're going to wind up with 3 or 4 pitchers.
Rather than us try to medically analyze it with 3-4 case studies on the web, better to skip to the bottom line and ask the surgeons, who have more than 3-4 cases to look at. They're pointing Bedard to May-June.
One thing NYM is that Bedard's labrum escaped detection for quite a while. I'm not guessing that means it's a 70% tear.
As well, Bedard was pitching effectively with the torn labrum. He figures to be better this June than wherever he was last June.
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Sheets, Bedard, etc are gambles, which is why they're not getting $100m contracts.
Another pitcher? How about Washbin for the 4 slot... Bedard's $$ would be a drop in the bucket...
It makes me nervous too.
At 1.5-2mil thats a gamble you pretty much have to take. If Bedard is even 80% of the pitcher he was healthy then he'll be worth it and then some.
The Ms ABSOLUTELY need another starter though. You can't count on Bedard; hes the wild card.
We can't be in a situation where Snell and Fister are both holding down rotation spots for significant parts of the season. One is ok, two could break up rythym of your team.
Had to fire off a quick email to Ian 'I have an unreasonable hatred for Erik Bedard' Furness. Driving around and heard him saying the problem with Bedard is he's a 100-pitch pitcher.
MLB average #Pitches per Game Start: 95
Bedard career #P/GS : 100
Pettite career #P/GS : 100
Beckett career #P/GS : 98
Felikkkkkkkks career #P/GS : 102
etc.
Shoulda put that on the front page, GL.
I wish the two local big blogs would use some of their muscle to shut down the unhelpful "100-pitch pitcher" accusation.
The blogs are well aware of the fallacy with that, and just an article or two would bring the writers up to speed and relieve us all of the dreary routine.
Not that I'm on board with any of the Beddard complaining amongst the media, but I think the complaint isn't that he's 100 and done, but that he's 100 and done by the 5th.
This is still short sighted, though, since it ignores that he is awesome in those 5 innings, has throwing them through significant injury, and IMO is often the victim of poor umping.
I'm pumped to have him back. And if the journalist folks could put their hurt feelings back in their purses for a moment, they might see that Eric has actually been fairly friendly and outgoing by his standards as of late. I really do think the guy likes it here in Seattle.
Agreed wufners.
Bedard career IP/GS: 5.8
MLB average IP/GS : 5.8
Felix caree IP/GS : 6.6; Pettite 6.4; Beckett 6.2
Ya Bedard's been largely a 5-inning pitcher in Seattle, where he's enjoyed the shortest outings of his career due to injuries. Take away his Seattle years, and he's closer to Beckett's 6.2. It's a fair criticism, but it's nothing to wail and gnash your teeth about; he's a strikeout pitcher, he's been injured, and if he performs at career-normal levels, then the length of his outings is about average for baseball.
I wouldn't mind seeing him in the pen for a while when he comes back, especially if the young 'uns are doing well. Let him build some arm strength and hand with Wetteland for a bit.
Felix 6.5
Beckett 6.3
Pettitte 6.2
Bedard 5.9
So yes, he doesn't go quite as deep into games as some of the other pitchers mentioned but considering the difference is at most 2/3 of an inning on average between him and Felix (and less for the others) as well as how effective he is in the innings he does pitch then you realize how rediculous the argument becomes.
True, but the Seattle guys aren't looking at careers here, they're looking and judging by a two year sample size. What they see is:
Felix becoming an ace while averaging 6.76 innings per start (and 7.0 this past year)
Bedard rolling his eyes at their questions while averaging 5.5 innings per start and Adam Jones is an All Star and the Mariners were terrible in 2008.
To them, the formula is "made me feel awkward + he's not meeting the high expectations + unrevised first impressions that he is a baby and a wuss + big time losing season + other guys in trade becoming stars + scapegoats and negative reports are easier to write/give = Bedard's a jerk."
Again, I'm just being a Devil's advocate here. I see why some feel the way they do, but strongly disagree. In real life, I'm with you fellers. I actually enjoy his interviews. :)