CHA-CHING, Dept.
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We realize that the vast majority of you read and re-read the classics during Dr. D's downtime. The SSI classics, that is. Still and all, for those in the LF bleachers who haven't lounged around, birds chirping, and properly studied in the Mariners Cyber-Quad, here's an Erasmo summary in one long, glorious Super Bowl commercial. Alternatively, you can view this as one more URL for posterity.
Here is the article POTD Erasmo Ramirez 1. Cliff's Notes: Erasmo comparable to Doug Fister? It is possible. His 1+ BB rates are not achieved Blake Beavan style; Erasmo actually paints the strike zone like Rembrandt. Also in this article we discuss the negative of Erasmo's height, vis-a-vis the positive of his long arms and deceptive across-the-body motion.
Here is POTD 2. Lance Painter taught Erasmo a critical lesson: you can't throw every pitch for a strike. Pineda had to learn this in March 2011. Erasmo seems to have learned it in 2012. Plateau leap territory.
If you wormhole over to planet POTD 3, you will visit the mechanical breakdown planetary system. Erasmo has truly remarkable head action, and truly weird around-the-corner action that works because of the angle of his front foot. Read allaboudit.
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=== March 15th Outing ===
The M's were giving Erasmo strong consideration in March. Here's a scout's clipboard after his televised March 15th outing, using the oh-so-beloved 20-80 grading system. Associated with this game were also this article describing the gameflow. Like Mikey Jay once said, you might be able to out-argue Dr. D, but you will never be able to out-type him.
Here is a description of his stuff that March 15. Erasmo has good juice on the fastball, up to 94-95 MPH, and he throws it up in the zone. This article also has Erasmo's movement chart; his changeup drops a lot more than the typical ML changeup.
The overall prognosis is right here. Dr. D will be very surprised if Erasmo does not turn out to be a better-than-average MLB starter.
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=== What He's Been Doing Since ===
The Mariners, even more than other teams, prefer to wait on an Erasmo-type callup until the kid has just had a brilliant game. That was the way this time. Here's the last K from his June 2 start in Tacoma: 9 strikeouts, 1 run allowed, and obviously mouthwatering potential. (Erasmo's June 8 start was also superb.)
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=== Exec Sum ===
Strengths:
Question marks:
Two thumbs up. Love the located 94 MPH, love the changeup to complement, love the personality. Erasmo would make a 91-MPH one-pitch "command specialist" look like a dead man.
Bring it on,
Dr D
The Mariners call up Erasmo (and Guti). Beavan and Liddi are demoted, Carp and Pryor go to the DL, Wells is up and we're looking for a reliever...
Do we take Carraway or a struggling bullpenner from AAA and chip away at some trees or dig out our shiny Capps chainsaw? Dunno yet.
Feeling really bad for Carp at this point, though, and nothing better mess with the Saunders Mojo.
Welcome back to the bigs Erasmo! Go get em - we need somebody to get em.
~G
I'm with you G.
I'm leaving Saunders in CF.
Which reduces Guti's value greatly, btw.
He just hasn't shown a COF bat.
Sigh.
Saunders has huge value, it looks like, in CF.
There he stays, in my book.
I've long said that Guti is best as a 4th OF. Unfortunately, Wedge will soon demonstrate that he sees him as his principle CF.
In the last two years, Guti (not all-together healthy, I will admit) has 443 PA's (including AAA) and exactly one homer. His rehab assignment saw a .211 avg and a .289 slg.
I will be optimistic. I will be optimistic. I will be optimistic.
I will be.........oh, forget it.
moe
But then realized it was a futile hope that Saunders would remain the everyday CF. Besides, "his bat will play on a corner." He's what, 5th in the league in doubles? Guti has wandered for 40 years in the desert without an XBH.
Guti to CF it is. For a little while, anyway - Saunders has made T-Rex sized footprints out there so far and Guti will have a hard time doing the same.
We'll see - and hope for the best.
~G
And as far as the Saunders Mojo... unsettling to see a Times piece that seemed to reflect a feeling that Saunders hasn't earned a permanent spot in the lineup...
Certainly hope this is Geoffy's take, and not Sgt. Wedge's...
Then teams will be well aware that he nets out at 4.0, even 5.0 WAR. There is a lot of processing power around the 30 MLB teams.
Zduriencik identified Gutierrez as such *before* Guti had a 5+ WAR season on the marquee at Fangraphs. Everybody knows who he is.
The question is whether Gutierrez CAN hit. If he did, he'd be marketable, no worries there.
continues most of the time to hit in the lower third of the order despite:
a. Team high batting average
b. Team high OBP
c. Team high slgPct
d. Speed on bases
e. Team high in stolen bases
f. Third on team in RBI
He has done all of this despite disadvantageous spot in order with OBP disaster Olivo hitting in front of him and BlackJack-Hole Ryan hitting behind him.
I know that Wedge has Ichiro first and Ackley second, and he's reluctant to make it three lefties in a row at the top of the order.
The idea that Saunders might not yet have earned the right to play nearly every day is mind-boggling. The sample is small, but so far in 2012 he has the following slash line against LHP's:
.300 / .354 / .583 / .937
60/63 games, 57 starts. That ratio is fine with me as I expect Center Fielders and Shortstops to need a little extra rest anyway. As for the hitting in the middle of the order, Wedge has voiced confidence in his ability to hit "anywhere" in the line up, but I think this is Wedge doing silent management. In the bottom half of the order, Saunders is less likely to feel like he needs to carry the team. After the Toronto game that Saunders won with a pair of home runs, he went on to strike out in 16 of his next 38 PA (42%!) while hitting a pair of doubles (losing at least 1 more to a great play) and a home run. I think Saunders got caught up in trying to be a hero during a tough losing streak and tried to crush everything, which is perilously close to recreating what gave him huge holes in his swing before this season. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see he and Ackley flipped, or Saunders at 3, Seager at 5 or something else, especially after last night. I think Saunders is developing rapidly both in terms of stats, and mentally. People have been asking who would step up as a leader on the team, and it seems more and more that Saunders is fitting into that role.
I was only reflecting on Jeff's comment above, "(it's) unsettling to see a Times piece that seemed to reflect a feeling that Saunders hasn't earned a permanent spot in the lineup..."
My thinking was that whoever has such an idea at this point in the 2012 season is seriously missing something. I wish I could locate the article, because I thought I saw the same thing earlier this morning. The tone of it left me scratching my head as to how the contributions of Mr. Unable To Stay Healthy And Hit supposedly to preempt the contributions of Saunders.
Given Carp's banged up shoulder, this is the best possible collection of OF for the club. With Gutz and Wells replacing Carp, Figgins and Liddi, it's certainly the best defensively by a god margin. Two lefties, two righties, all play good-to-great defense.
Hopefully Saunders keeps playing darn near every day. It's not like there is a real LF thumper on the team, so I have no problem with him out there. An Ichiro-Gutz-Saunders OF is amost certainly better than an Ichiro-Saunders-Figgins/Liddi/banged up Carp OF.
I just hope that Ichiro starts getting some time off and that Wells gets some time at each OF position. I would love to see a Wells-Gutz-Saunders OF the next time the club sees a lefty starter on the mound.
As that is the only spot where he is valuable. Turning Michael Saunders into our version of Carl Crawford/Justin Upton/Shin-Shoo Choo(I would expect Saunders D in a corner to be stellar, and his offense to still be solidly plus) would be just this side of acceptable. In Center, assuming he can maintain his current progress (and I do), he's an MVP candidate, in a corner, probably just a an All Star. But in order to allow Gutierrez to have trade value, he does need to play, and if Saunders keeps the hitting, that's what Gutierrez ultimately is; the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Indians, and the Mets would probably all have interest in picking up Gutierrez if he can produce a .700+ OPS while playing an amazing Center Field.
Those wicked rivals really know how to expose our weaknesses...