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Figgins is a switch-hitter, not a lefty. In fact, his career splits show he hits better RH than LH.
Echoes, Chone Figgins - I
Set out trying to convince myself that Jack might be right about Figgins -- if he lands Figgins, of course -- and whattaya know, the more I look, the more I see an argument for.
With Zduriencik right now, I'm kind of in the mode I'm in when sitting across from a grandmaster. I suggest this and that and there, sure I'm right. He chuckles and shakes his head no. I think whoooops, okay, what did I miss.
Granted this post is a bit in that spirit. Call me fickle. I've got respect for the light bulbs that Zduriencik has on.
Where might they be?
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=== In Theory, Dept. ===
In our article on Bill James' new Strong Season Leading Index, SSI endorsed James' system as being a serious advance on, say, PECOTA. This is because the comp-match factors that Bill used were, in my view, applied with more wisdom.
James' hand-developed system demonstrates incredible accuracy across the period 1876-2009. We had a little scuffle about whether this means it will be accurate for 2010 and forward :- ) but I'm trusting nobody wants to take the bottom ten DWN players and wager them against the top ten UP players.
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=== In This Case, Dept. ===
James' system forecasts Chone as powerfully DWN for 2010. We all figured 2009 as a career year for Figgins, so we and James converge on that one.
We can argue about James' system if we want, but we can't argue about this factual statement: over the period 1876-2009, only 21% of ML players with Figgins' 13 SSLI score had UP seasons the following year.
..............
Then again, the Mariners wouldn't need Figgins to have an UP season:
.300/.395/.400, 108 OPS+ - Figgins 2009
.290/.365/.380, 99 OPS+ - Figgins LIFE
.385 OBP - Figgins 2007-09 (more walks as he ages)
...............
I notice that Figgins' seasons don't vary a lot from each other -- he has a high REL score. It's one thing when you're talking about a DWN season for a guy who takes the roller coaster at Six Flags. It's another thing when you're talking about a DWN year for a toddler in his mommys-nap-time swing.
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=== OBP Train Dept. ===
Trying to salve my psychic sunburn here, I also notice that since Figgins drew close to 30, his EYE got reliably better, and that his OBP is .385 the last three years averaged.
Point is, .290/.380/.360 will satisfy James' "DWN" guarantee and yet provide the M's about double the OBP they've had from third base lately.
By the way, why does a guy with a screen name of OBP Train argue SLG+BB+SB as the big insight? :- )
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=== Stars & Scrubs ===
Figgins is a Civic, obviously, but he's also a massive upgrade at a black-hole position.
I'd rather have (1) Lackey and Tui than (2) Figgins and Harden. But hey. You're only going to get so much complaining from me, about a lefty .370 OBP at third base.
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Comments
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I tongue-in-cheek refer to switch-hitters as lefty. With good LH-on-LH numbers. :- )
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per Ken Rosenthal.
I tend to look at this as three years at $10-12m with the fourth year practically free. Fangraphs has his value, last three years, at:
2009 - $27.4m
2008 - $11.0m
2007 - $12.5m
Last year fangraphs had him as one of the best players in the league, based on a sky-high +16 runs defensively ...
Assuming a regression to 2007, the M's did indeed get four-years-for-the-price of three...
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We notice now that if Beltre accepts arb, the so-called $25m offseason budget is already gone, like a credit card handed to my daughter ...
Will be very interesting to see if Figgins is The Big Move offensively, or if the M's still get mentioned around the likes of Granderson and Bay the next day or two...
Eyes slideways... something sounds a mite fishy with that $25m figure bandied about ...
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The M's used to use positive and negative reinforcement with the media: whichever had been pitching the franchise the best, lately, got to break a story like this.
All the writers are getting the info off the wire. Perhaps this admin is above those types of tactics, both positively and negatively.
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That figure is wrong.
I've shown it to be something more like $35-40 mil.
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Figgins seems to be about as tolerable a Civic as you'd want. He can play a few infield positions, yes? Any outfiled? At least that way the roster isn't ossified so that Tui or someone else can't break in to the lineup. That's my main concern with Figgins.
$9MM per year isn't a bad price, or too cumbersome of a salary to have locked in. But it reinforces to me that I think the club will do whatever it can to move Lopez. They've got Tui and now Ackley working that spot, and I think they just don't want free swingers on this club. Ichiro excepted, of course.
Pretty impressive that in the past 6 years, 4 times has Figgins been in the top 25 in MVP voting.
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I loved Stone's item about how Z is trying to build up the Ms by removing some of the key blocks from the LAAA foundation.
Doesn't it make Figgins worth a few mil more just cuz you're removing him from the roster of the guys you gotta beat?
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Figgins is the perfect FA for the short-wide pyramid, right? -- defensive flexibility, speed, patience. Opposite of building around Sexson/Beltre.
Tui, Saunders or Ackley could bust into the lineup anytime and the team could adapt seamlessly.
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Yeah, and Stars & Scrubs teams do have some Civics. We're not talking about an I/O here, but shades of gray, as y'know.
Locking in 5 megastars at the top, and keeping the bottom 10 spots cheap and fluid, gives you the opportunity to pounce on whatever values are left... whether it be a value Civic, value Star, or value Scrub...
Stars & Scrubs isn't about avoiding every Civic from spot 1 thru 25. It's about picking Lackey and Saunders over Jackson and Granderson.
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hard to imagine Figgins being The Big Move...
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of course, if he was gone anyway, then our buying him doesn't leverage us mathematically ... but on the field is another conversation...
How painful would it be to watch Ichiro bang out two or three hits a game against us for the Angels or Rangers...
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Fangraphs doesn't add non-SB baserunning values however and Figgins is consistently about 7 runs above-average. He was 'only' 4 last year, but it wasn't a productive SB year for him percentage-wise. Its no mistake that hes averaged 103 runs scored per 162 games. You can safely add about 0.5 WAR to his overall value.
I'd estimate Figgins at about 3.5 WAR in '10 and '11, so at $9mil per year you're paying him about $2.5mil per WAR. Thats excellent value. Given his flexibily he also won't be blocking anyone.
The other good news is that Figgins is a playoff hitter. He has a career .381 OBP vs power pitchers.
My only real concern is the years.. Year 3 is slightly at risk, but its really Year 4 when many Figgins types start to decline.
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Z has something else planned along with Branyan and Figgins...there's a trade or a surprise FA signing coming.
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http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/12/4/1186257/additional-chone-figgins...
The years are one year off ('09 data is actually '08), but the point is the same.. Its rediculous how much it seems like I'm thinking exactly what Jeff over LL is, and I'm about 99.9% sure he doesn't read anything I post.
Anyway he goes on to conclude that Figgins' non-SB value is worth right around 0.5+ WAR as I did. :-)
#1 Ichiro - 111 runs per 162 games
#2 Figgins - 102 runs per 162 games
Get Branyan + Thome/Delgado in the 3/4 and we've suddenly got an offense to complement the D. :-)
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If Crawford/Graderson is like an airsoft gun loaded with ball bearings, Figgins is more like an airsoft gun loaded with peanuts or something.
I'm ambivalent. I've never been a fan of Chawn because he's not a big gun, but a more annoying, not as good version of guys like Ichiro and Lofton.
The OBP is definitely nice, but now you basically have a lineup with a couple 1s, a couple 5s (Lopez, Gutz) and a bunch of 8/9s. The ship has all the little peashooters it wants, but there's no big gun.
We'll see. Figgins can be an anciliary to the OBP game, and he's real-to-runs OBP. It really comes down to how the rest of the offense comes together.
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...and someone to be the full time DH (Xavier Nady or someone similarly inexpensive and decently productive) could fill out the line-up and you'd then have enough money to sign Bedard and Harden and call it a solid off-season.
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I'll buy the +0.5 wins for baserunning not captured by SB's.
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Lol, OBP_Train is my stratonerds fantasy league team. Almost in year 4! ;-)
So yeah, I do like SLGBBSB but you ran the SLGBBSB and contrast to OBP? The numbers are quite peculiar. Whether you add OBP + the SB or SLGBBSB calculation. You get the same result in 2009. Figgins gets on 40% of the time. So what does that tell you? Virtually zero power. But he's getting doubles? Yup cause he's running the bases. But can he steal? Well the net bases are 25 out of 183 hits+101BB. How much again you paid for Figgins? And yet Billy beane got Dallas Mcpherson for the price of some crackers..... However figgins defend right? At least that's good? I don't know but this seems like a HUGE overpayment. Kinda like a bavasi era move. This kinda seals the M's fate back into mediocrity.
OBP_Train
20
What would be the highest salary for Figgins that would be reasonable, in your view?
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Beltre and Figgins
OPS, OPS+ Beltre>Figgins
RC27, wOBA push
WPA RE24 REW Figgins>>Beltre
I really think M's front office like WPA RE24 REW
22
Is your giving Derek Jeter like money to a 3rd basemen when the market is saturated with 3rd basemen. Take your pick at the remaining 3rd basemen, Glaus, Blalock, Kouzmanoff(SD wants to dump kouz so make a deal). All of these players will command alot less money. Heck, Glaus is good for at least 3-4 more seasons. Buy low. And it's not like $50M in free money is alot of money. I mean that's like only 2 aces or two pujols. That's it.
Now don't get me wrong, I like paying big money if you have only one or two holes to fill in but their is more then two holes to fill in Seattle and that's the problem. It's like repairing a leaking bucket. If you want to repair take out the water and clean it out. I'm inclined to think figgins should have just got last year's salary and not a big payraise. 4-5 years 24 million tops. And heck I wouldn't even care if M's lost the bidding since a combination of Nick Johnson and jose lopez would give you the same net obp over say branyan and figgins.
Now, if you press the argument that figgins is the true future 2nd basemen or ss then it becomes easier to swallow the cost. But isn't that ackley's role or lopez? Granted I like figgins over jose lopez.
Also, it's not like their is a small market of fast infielders with 30+ net sb and good obp. Take the rangers for instance who have esteban german as a possible infielder(he made only $400k last year). Esteban German btw has had a higher obp in the majors in one season then figgins and potential for 70 SB in a season. The A's have also a similar player in the minors with the player name of Michael Richard. I don't know the more I look at that cost, the more ludricious it seems.
Waste of money, my 2 cents
OBP_Train
23
9 million is not elite money anymore.
I understand the sentiment, Figgins isn't my type of player either. His career OPS+ is practically average at 99. He's a civic-to-da-max.
But Figgins' OBP (despite it being one year) is inherently worth more than the slow-footed OBPs like Glaus and Johnson. Figgins' OBP is more likely to convert to runs compared to the same OBP with zero power that Johnson offers.
Z's bet is probably that Figgins' eye isn't a fluke in the 'once you have it, you don't lose it' thread of mind. Like DrD says, you can't really buy stuff cheap once it's 'proven', so it's a gamble for sure.
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So no...we're not giving "Jeter Money" to Figgins. It's also not necessarily true that we're paying him to play third base exclusively...and he has value beyond his offense...he's another gifted fielder and a great baserunner, which don't show up in OPS+. I think we paid about what a team should pay for a guy like Figgins...it's not a bargain, but it's not a problem contract either.
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Since all these contracts are in US funds and the US dollar is tanking on the foreign market you could take that into account in contract negotations. So if you sign for multiple year you put the funds in a more stable currency and then move over the funds back to U.S funds on a yearly basis. It's defiantly a factor that shouldn't be underestimated.
OBP_Train