Q. Is 4/$56M the right number?
A. Sure, roughly.
Analysis around the 'net will focus on whether $10 vs $12 vs $12M is "correct," and whether 3 vs 4 years is "correct."
You can't measure microns with yardsticks, and the White Sox do not have a hard salary cap.
You can't calculate X/Y to four places, when Y is indeterminate. The available money changes depending on circumstances. You save $2M, or spend it, and that usually doesn't change your roster in the real world, unless you're Oakland. It changes your cashflow.
And the biggest difference, fans of 500-run teams might have noticed, is in having an Adam Dunn or not having one.
$2M per year matters when deciding on Aardsma or Jack Wilson. It shouldn't often determine whether an Adam Dunn joins your club.
What was it, last year when $10M a year was considered an overpay for Dunn? MLB comes to its senses.
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Q. How do you project Dunn? How will he perform in a small park?
A. Dr. D has always considered Three True Outcomes (TTO) players to be Rohrschach tests. Ask a guy what he thinks of, say, Mark Reynolds before he realizes Reynolds is a TTO player and you'll get a window to that guy's baseball subconscious. :- )
Personally, I don't bet money, but I like gambling as a concept. Some people hate risks. They tend to dislike TTO players. Me, I tend to disproportionately like TTO players like Dunn, Branyan, and Cust.
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Dunn is the same thing every blinkin' year. 40 homers, 100 walks, 100 RBI, 100 R.* He's had the same year each season from 2004-10. The only other guy I remember being this consistent, is Manny Ramirez.
Dunn is quick to the ball and he doesn't have to overswing. That's not a guarantee, but I like his chances. If you're in the FA market, you're spending money without guarantees.
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Dunn is Jim Thome, minus 5 homers and 10 walks. Thome's better, sure, but then Thome is better than everybody. Dunn is as close as you're going to get to him.
Thome maintained his 150 OPS+'s until age 37 ... and last year, at age 39, his OPS+ was 178 in a small park.
"Old players' skills," that serves as a better warning against average ballplayers than it does against Hall of Famers (I would estimate Dunn's chance at the HOF as around 30%, 40%, and his chance revolves around his chance to hit say 550 homers).
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Q. You like TTO guys, because of your personality?
A. And because they change the scoreboard.
Adam Dunn not only "creates" lots of runs in the formulas -- he also drives in, and scores, lots of runs on the field.
Some guys "create" 100 runs -- but drive in 80 and score 80. Adam Dunn "creates" 100 runs -- and drives in and scores 100.
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Q. Should the Mariners have been in on Dunn for 4/$56M?
A. Well, organizationally they should get serious about winning a pennant period, and should raise their payroll by about $30, $40M. So in that sense, yeah.
Oddly, two years and one very sweeeeet Smoak/Lee deal later, I don't see Dunn as quite as good a fit as I did earlier.
I agree in principle with Sandy, that a 4x$14M deal for a DH ---- > ossifies your Stars & Scrubs flexibility if ---- > your kids haven't yet taken root around the diamond yet.
If the Mariners had no Justin Smoak, I'd say they had to contort to get some RBI in here. But in my view, Smoak takes enough pressure off that they can afford to skip the Dunn route.
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Q. Got any more Adam Dunns in there anyplace?
A. The Mariners have a TTO masher available to DH for them next year, as I recall. I wonder if they're interested in re-up'ping their poor man's version of Adam Dunn. 70% of the production at 10% of the contract, maybe?
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Q. The SSI approach to spending $$ this particular winter?
A. M's have already said there isn't much to spend. The deal-ee-oh this winter is trades. So agility's the thing.
Here's one winter where we've got real enthusiasm for the idea of keeping $$ as clear as possible for accommodating Upton and Rasmus tactix.
Cheers,
Dr D
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*Okay, 97 runs. Per 162.
The market seems to be recovering a bit and as a pure-DH this is about par for Dunn's value. Hes neither really overpaid or a bargain, although the years are a bit risky.
With the TV deals some teams are getting, we may be past the bargain markets of '08 and '09. $s for FAs should continue to go up.
So far, Nishioka is the only real cheap player this offseason. I'll be waiting to see what Z is going to do about SS.
The Mariners ar ethe only medium market team in baseball that has a salary cap akin to an NFL franchise. They aren't going to spend any money on anything...King Felix ate all their cookies.
With the market rebounding, I'm not counting on any real meaningful FA acquisitions.
There is the trade market though.. I hope Z can make something happen. The farm system alone is not going to get it done.
I believe Z has marching orders not to make big changes right now until they can "see what they have."
We should all be bracing for a five year plan. And if you want to know how those work out...ask the Phillies (says Bill Veech)
Bedard is back for a ST invite.
No risk, good upside. Bedard is probably done, but if you hit your sixes you've got a really nice trade piece.
Yeah...I figured Bedard would try one more time here.
I think the Mariners should try him as a LOOGY.
That Adam Dunn is immune to the "Old Player Skills" rule. He just finished his age 30 season, and while he hit his 38 home runs, he walked at the lowest rate of his career (11.9% compared to 16% career average) and struck out at the highest rate of his career (30.7% compared to 26.9% career). He didn't have much in the way of reported injuries, so those kind of numbers make it look like he was pressing to get to those career norms.
The funny thing about TTO guys is that teams admire their production from afar....but don't actively chase them, unless they Dunn's, models of consistency. Teams also discount, I think, MILB guys with that skill set.
Sure, Dunn is a hot commodity now...but even a year ago his value was poo pooed. Cust is out in the cold, for goodness sakes.
Luzinski and Tettleton were admired, but almost in a carnival freak-show type of way. "Come see the TTO! Wonder at his freakish ways!" You almost expect a Kingman or Cust to growl "I am not a monster!"
Teams stare...but don't touch.
Mike Wilson knows this attitude.
The stupid thing is that a year ago many baseball types scoffed at the $10M per for Adam Dunn, but outside of some SSI'ers, there certainly didn't seem to be much scoffing going on when the M's paid Figgy $8M per.
Where is Gorman Thomas when we need him?
(Wouldn't you love to have GT during his Wallbanger years? Heck...wouldn't you love Wilson to have a line of .215/.330/.450 with 32 taters, 84 walks and 124 K's next year. Thomas did that for the M's in '85! OPS+ of 112. To get the same OPS+ today you would need to add another 10 points each to OPB and SLG, or so. But I would be tickled pink for a duplicate performance by Wilson....or Halman...or Reynolds...Hint, hint)
TTO's? I love 'em
moe
Make that, "unless they are Dunns, models of consistency.' Sheeeesh.
I kind of agree with you there.
Dunn has had a high BABIP by his standards the past two seasons masking a slight power drop from his prime. His eye was also a career-worst 0.39 this season. He also mostly mashes finesse pitching.
Its a reasonable deal, but there is risk. I wouldn't have signed Dunn to that deal personally.
I'm not the first person to bash Bavasi for signing Sexson...that was not the horrid deal USSM made it sound like, IMHO...but I do think the Chisox are going to get a very Sexson-like result here...two good years, one transitional bad year and a wash-out. They may be OK with that...we'll see.
Dunn has also never exclusively DH'ed before...I don't know how that's going to impact his concentration.
Probably a good comp, but its very possible Dunn is already declining. Now that I look closer, I'm a little more concerned.
Dunn's O-Swing% was 28.5% in '10. Over league-average and well over his career average 18.4%.
His contact rate was a career low at 68.2% and SwS% a career-high at 13.8%. Dunn also posted a 719 OPS and 38 K% (0.32 eye) against LHs.
Despite a low 17.9 LD% (19.5% career), Dunn had a career high .329 BABIP that somewhat masked the peripheral declines.
Its possible this is just a random career low, but these are classic signs of decline.
After looking closer, I really don't like that signing by the White Sox. Theres a good chance Dunn is already in his decline phase.
...his enormous leading physical skill (power) should keep him productive (if not as much as he was) for another year or two...but he may be neutrerable with lefty-loading in high leverage situations. He definitely doesn't hit power pitching well already...he's got no shot against a power lefty. And that's not going to get better, most likely.
711 OPS against power pitching last year too with an 0.21 eye. Some possible signs of slowing batspeed.
I think we are in year 3 of a rebuilding plan. Z has avoided long contracts for 2 offseasons in a row and has been getting the farm stocked full of people who could possibly help. I really think you are looking at a team that will be looking to add a bunch of payroll next offseason and will definitely be in the thick of things in 2013 (if not 2012).
For the White Sox, I think the move makes sense. They are positioned to win the pennent this year. If they win a pennent or two with Dunn before he drops off a cliff, they won't mind.
I'm not sure its even a good signing for the White Sox. The delta between Dunn and the other DH FAs isn't high enough to risk the $s IMO.
If Dunn's '10 BABIP were normalized, it would have been a suprisingly poor season by his standards.
Likely good investment for two years - but a couple of less-than-ideal years mixed in.
One of the keys when speaking of player profiles and such is that the physical makeup of a player plays a MAJOR role in their longevity. *BIG* guys tend to wear down below the waist - the knees go, (the lower back), hammies, groin pulls, etc.
One of the ugliest parts of trying to comp Dunn is while his bbref comp lists is littered with guys who had strange (or ugly) career tails.
Dunn's comp-list is compromised by the reality that his BA is significantly lower than all the guys on his comp list - but his walks are higher than everyone.
Strawberry's career can't be a good comp, since the ugly ending had little to do with ability or age.
But - there IS a commonality for his comps - (the ones who quit early AND the ones who played many more years). Almost every one had at least one bad year by age 34. (Age 34 is a really popular age to miss a lot of time and/or lose 200 points off the OPS). *BUT*, the guys that kept playing also tended to bounce back.
You see, it's not the ABILITY that typically vanishes overnight (though there are exceptions - as evidenced by the Richie Sexson train wreck). The reality is that the "big" guys tend to hit injury walls -- where the acute injuries become chronic. In the steroid era - things changed - because the chronic injuries vanished for many thanks to the chemsitry set.
That fact the ChiSox have gotten so many years from Thome after his (age 34 - heh heh) disaster with the Phillies, when he hit .712 in 59 games -- is a likely boon to Dunn.
If I'm the ChiSox GM, I might well be "hoping" for a horrid age 34 season - so I can re-sign him cheap and get another 3 years.
But, the danger here is the low BA. as I believe there is a BA "tipping point", where once you slip below a certain level, production is compromised elsewhere. Dunn doesn't have a safety net in regards to BA. His eye may remain - but HOW he is pitched to and how many walks he's "fed" may alter if his BA drops to say .215. The SABR guy is fine with a .200/.330/.500 (.830) bat. But, most of baseball isn't. The "disaster" scenario is the .830 Dunn that nobody wants to play -- (Dunn could catch a bad case of Branyan Bench Syndrome).
But, I think the more likely route is Dunn is great production in 6 of the next 8 years - with the leading variable being HEALTH.
...may have had to do with his back spasms, BTW. Just FWIW
Not sure what that means champ... ST invite? meaning no $1.5/$8M deal up front?
If he hits his sixes, we added the AL xFIP leader, didn't we? :- )
that he was "immune" to the Old Player Skills rule. :- )
Did say, however, that I liked his chances to transcend it.
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As to your broader point, would cheerfully agree Mal that his EYE was down, and so were his numbers vs LHP's (the reflex stat).
Dunn certainly is no guarantee.
May have to mosh off that one for a freebie post :- )