=== Second Time Around ===
On August 16th, Doogie had his second ML start, beating the Yankees 10-3. Seven innings, eight hits, 0 walks, four strikeouts.
After the game, Jeter gave him credit: fastball moves a lot, changed speeds, moved the ball around the strike zone, just didn't give us anything to hit.
It will be interesting, if Fister pitches his game, to see whether the Yankees continue to take cut-down swings -- hands flinching on changeups, late foul tips on mediocre fastballs, etc. Watch the Yankee aggressiveness.
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=== Terrifying Lineup ===
The Yankees are rolling with a 120 team OPS+ right now.
8 of their 9 regulars have OPS+ over 124.
7 of those 9 regulars bat lefty, or switch. In essence, Fister will be facing a lineup of nine Ichiro-caliber lefties tonight. For a righty soft-tosser, this is a golf course on which a 4-ER par is a very good score.
=== Arm Strength ===
Doogie's later in the year than he's ever been. Against NYY the first time, his arm was fresh and his FB was swerving.
Doogie needs two of the following three edges on his FB:
1) 88-89 mph
2) Consistent plus command
3) Consistent plus movement
If he doesn't have two of those things, he's got to scuffle. The same was true of, say, Chris Bosio and Brad Radke.
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=== TTO's ===
Fister's strikeouts are, in very short innings, at the 5.4 mark -- right on the edge of Shandler's magic 5.6 mark for pitchers of his type.
Here's the original DOV assessment of Doogie's arsenal. He can get strikeouts with the changeup swinging or looking, can get strikeouts with the fastball looking, can get strikeouts with the curve ball in the dirt.
But first he's got to get to two strikes! And to do so, our R/X is plenty of offspeed pitches and/or FB's right on the black -- pitches that hitters don't want to swing at, first pitch.
The first pitch, and second pitch, cannot be FB's that get a good part of the plate. August 16th, Doogie fed them 0-1, 0-2 on pitches that were over the plate, but that were not appealing. He needs the same tonight.
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The last remaining question, for me, is mistake avoidance. With the mighty lefty Yankees in lefty-friendly Safeco, we'll be okay with one homer. Two is more cause for worry. Zero will have Dr. D flying high again.
It depends on whether Doogie can pitch through the game without centering fastballs above the knees.
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=== Tui In the Lineup ===
Cool of Wok to put Tui in at 2B again, despite his having to hustle over from Husky Stadium. :- )
Against Sabathia, we're curious to see whether he can get around on the 95 fastball, especially inside, as Tui did on Matt Thornton. We're watching for quickness of bat launch.
Particularly on that crackling Sabathia curve, it would be nice to see him keep his hands back, at least sometimes, so that we know he's catching up to the FB honestly.
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Defensively, I'll be watching the depth at which Tui plays, and his lateral quickness (he needs one OR the other). The arm and the hands are pretty well a given for me.
On the DP you're looking for an early, squared-away target and you're looking for a quick but unhurried natural two-handed flip throw, not rushed and not unnatural, as the runner comes in.
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Sabathia's as tough as it gets from the lefty side. Be interesting to watch power talent vs power realized. :- )
Enjoy,
Dr D
At this point I'd be really dissapointed if the Ms didn't announce 2B as Tui's new permanant position. The guy can flat out handle 2B and his bat projects much better there. He also had some good Abs. Good patience (2 BBs and a lineout).
I'm a LOT more excited about Tui than I am about Morrow, or Saunders, or Triunfel. The guy looks like a player. He'll probably struggle early on with the bat, but I really hope that the Ms commit to his development (at 2B!).
Fister is looking more and more like a fringe SP.. The gopheritis vs lefties is just getting out of hand (Gave up 2 HRs today, should have been 3). The good news is that he could make a quantum leap in the future if he comes up with a pitch vs LHs. For now though, hes looking more like AAA depth.
Funny how much we've debated about French vs Fister and their issues vs opposite handed hitters..Now we've seen both of them get taken deep from the same switch hitter in the same game. Frankly, neither of these guys look like they're ready yet for a SP role.
Hopefully French's velocity rebounds in ST and we see that good slider again (saw him flash it 2-3 times today). And hopefully Fister can figure out a way to stay respectable against LHBs... I wouldn't write either of them off long-term, but its looking they might not be options in the short-term. Maybe one of them takes a step forward next spring..
Looked to me like Doogie had his good FB ... good velo, good movement, and located it well ...
Lots of quality pitches, but the Yankees were just flat-out on everything. Give them credit...
If Fister's stuff were fringe on Saturday, I would cheerfully admit it, but you give me those same 80 pitches against the average team in the AL and I'll take about 30 starts like that.
One thing is clear -- Fister is not Roy Halladay, capable of overpowering an All-Star lineup on his own volition -- he is a *pitcher* and there will be games he'll lose to great LH lineups, as is the case for all but about a dozen pitchers ...
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One adjustment he still may need, is to get a little less of the plate... 53 strikes, 26 balls against a howitzer lefty lineup.
Call the jury in if you like Taro m'man :- ) but I am liking what I am seeing from Doug Fister.
Saw just the first two AB's, but he worked Sabathia for the first walk, reading the pitches early, swinging aggressively on the 2-0 pitch, generally attacking the Cy Young Yankee with gusto :- )
The ball to CF was smoked on a line, and carried about 100 feet farther than most guys' line drives... love the swing from A to Z...
Saw three plays:
1. and 2. Glided over quickly and had his feet set very early, so that as he caught the ball he was already in position to throw... checked a runner at 3b with a QB-like precision, so good to see the nerves were not bothering him ...
3. The liner up the middle was only about 3-4 feet away... he basically just fell over and snared the ball, no problemos there ...
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In the booth, they were trying to think of other big 3b. I guess by that they mean tall, since they named Red Schoendeinst and did not name Bret Boone.
Interesting that they didn't think of, um, Jose Lopez. He's listed about 6'1" 210, isn't he?
Thats exactly the problem IMO. He threw a quality game and he got completely smashed. 2 BBs, 1K, and Yanks were on everything. Fister really couldn't afford to catch less of the plate against the Yanks.
Coming into the game his HR/9 vs lefties was 2.4, now its 2.9. This is well beyond the breaking point.
I'm not writing him off at all long-term. He just clearly isn't ready 'now' to be a quality MLB starter.
Overall hes at 5.1 K/9, 1.93 K/BB, 1.91 HR/9.
Fister needs to add a pitch or something. The issues vs lefties will limit him to Roogy status unless he can get that HR/9 down to the mid 1s.
At least we now know for sure what Fister has to work on to stick. His mistake avoidance is a good deal worse than Jason Vargas or Luke French (1.91 HR/9). Keep the Hr/9 vs lefties 'somewhat' under control and he could stick as a BOR starter.
I can't think of any reason why Tui can't stick at 2B for good.
Hes what Lopez would be if Lopez were more athletic, had more raw power, and were a lot more willing to take a BB.
Tui is a very exciting prospect when you really start thinking about it. He might struggle early on with contact, but hes a guy that could be worth the wait.