=== Figgins on Monday? ===
MLBtraderumors.com says that the Figgins deal will be signed Monday -- because that's Beltre's deadline for accepting arbitration.
We hold one of these two truths to be self-evident:
(1) The light bulb that Jack Zduriencik had on, that we in cyber-Seattle did not, was that he was much closer to the situation and knew that the chance of Beltre accepting was nil, -OR-
(2) That is wayyyyyyyyy too much of a gamble in order to gain one draft pick.
The odds against that draft pick ever mattering in the major leagues ... are at least 6:1 against, fellers. We are not talking about a top-10 kid here. We're talking about a kid who will have a good ways to go to even become a top-10 org prospect for the M's.
..............
It's not fair-minded to console ourselves with, well, Adrian's worth close to $13m anyway. Beltre at $13m for one year is as poor a choice as any you could name this winter -- anything else (within reason) would be at least as good as that.
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=== Pitch Pennies Wif Me? ===
The Mariners have their .385-OBP, lefty*, Gold Glove third baseman locked up for five years -- but they'll go ahead and gamble that against a single Grade B- prospect who hasn't played pro yet?
The two sides of this equation are badly out of proportion. It's about like playing rock-paper-scissors: I win, I get your #14 org prospect. You win, Ichiro gets free agency tomorrow. That's proportionate?
Supposing we did that with Franklin Gutierrez. One dice roll. You win, I'll give you the A's #9 prospect. I win, you give me Gutierrez. What kind of odds would you need? 20:1? 50:1?
That's apparently just what the M's are doing with their 3b. They win, they get a #12 org prospect. They lose, there goes their third baseman?
...................
Like we say, we presume that the M's knew the odds against Beltre accepting to be, say, 50:1 against.
But then why wait until Beltre declines? If that's what happens, Beltre declines and then Figgins signs after that, Jemanji is going outside and toss his cookies. That blinkin' draft pick is just as liable to never even be good in AAA.
...............
Like we sez, the above is all based on the premise that the rumors are on target .... but it sez here that the blog-o-sphere is a leeeetle behind the curve as to what these gambles imply...
We understand that 90% of Seattle 'net rats value the draft pick highly, and applaud Capt Jack for risking so much on its behalf. That's ho-kay. Jemanji is happiest when the elevator isn't too crowded. :- )
I'm with Gillick. I think a #30 draft pick is a longshot, and even if I lose the pick, I can spend the $$ elsewhere.
Betting your big anti-Angels coup against an 18-year-old with a 93 fastball, if that's what happened, ee-yuck.