Cust will certainly be a factor against RHP's. Jack should have signed him for two years. He'll regret that.
I'm interested in what the M's are planning for the other 50 starts (or so) a year. Is Milton the DH vs lefties? Looks like the plan right now. That's throwing a lot of eggs in the unsturdy Milton basket. Certainly didn't work out last year. Perhaps that RH DH was the "impact bat" that Z thought he could squeeze out of Aardsma.
As stated before, (numerous times) here's to Mike Wilson getting a true ST opportunity to become the 4th OF and RH DH.
Wouldn't mind seeing what a Wilson/Saunders LF platoon looks like. Saunders .601 OPS vs. LHP in '10 was some better than his .464 OPS vs LHP in '09 (I know, not year 150 PA's vs lefties in his career). Perhpas he makes another leap this year....but if he doesn't, you can't run out a .600-ish OPS LF 50 starts a year!
For the 1st 30 games (at leat) it looks like a Wilson/Ryan/Figgy IF (outside of 1B). That's about a punchless as you can get.
Holes exist.
Did we trade Figgy yet?
Dang!
But Doc is right...Cust vs righties = (to quote Clubber Lang) Pain.
Moe
=== Bargain Bin HQ'ers, Dept. ===
Hadn't got a chance yet to give the good news on Cust. From HQ's perspective, that is. Having served up gritty Yang on local sportswriters, immigration boards and puppet field managers, how about some sweet Yin on a Mariners player who will be a lot of fun to watch next year...
Story goes about the two guys on the shooting range who were preparing for that Saturday's competition. "Boy, I hear Dave just spent $2,000 on a HK .45 longslide," one guy worried.
"Dave don't bother me none," his friend replied. "I hear Bill just spent $2,000 on primers. For his practice ammo."
Shandler has made, at a conservative estimate, 20,000 predictions off of the trends he sees in his favorite five component skills. I like to hear what he sees in the trends for next year's players too.
.............
On Cust:
- First half power = 90 (with 100 being league-average)
- Second half power = 165
- "HR/F in first half was probably an anomaly"; else 2H power wouldn't have shown like it did
- Expect a bounceback in 2011
- Scale down bid to reflect decreased playing time...
- ... since he can't hit LHP's any more
- Projection for 2011: 6.2 runs created per 27 outs
It's always pleasing to see your stands-view opinions synch up with those of the almanac-sages. This has been our feeling also, that Cust's power has been temporarily suppressed but latent.
It's a Shandler truism that "once a player shows a skill, he owns it." What he means by that, is precisely this kind of thing. Cust retains the ability to stalk pitches; for various reasons he hasn't been choosing to do so, for a little while.
This happens more than we think, that coaching and injuries and whatnot camoflage a player's latent skills.
.................
It's not a given, but it's one more piece of evidence on the pile: a reminder that Cust has run 200 PX's in the past, and ran a 165 just the last three months we saw him.
In a roto draft, I'd be bullish on a 32-year-old Cust's ability to hit RHP's for the .270/.400/.500 that he's always done. Give me a real team, and no money to spend, and I'd have been thrilled to bet on Cust as my LH DH.
Change of scenery, park that plays to his TTO game, I like his chances in 2011.
.
Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
Cust's monthly IsoP:
.026
.121
.368
.130
.141
He had a monster July last year. Its hard to say with Cust. My guess is that the power stay at around '09/'10 levels, but if he gets his power back to '08 levels he could really be a bargain.
.240/.370/.410 would be my best guess in full-time play, but he really needs to be platooned IMO. Hes has very extreme RH/LH splits the past couple years.
The LHP/RHP splits...
At age 25, I'd have pegged Jack Cust as a poster boy for early platooning, and sho 'nuff he is showing very early signs of being overmatched vs LHP's...
Was never a physical freak, never had real quick hands, and as he puts age 30 in the rear-view mirror it is simply asking too much for him to catch up to a LH fastball...