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=== Case For, Redux ===
To lighten up a little bit ... Bill James was asked, by Geoff Baker, what he thought of Kotchman.
Bill had Kotchman in Boston last year, of course. He did point out, well, Casey is one of those players who does a little of everything -- get you some AVG, runs well for a first baseman, a little gap power, very good defender.
What James meant, was that OVERrated players are those who do one or two things very well -- they have an empty .320 average and they're stars, or they hit 32 homers with terrible OBP's and they're stars, or they steal 60 bases with 4.00 RC/27's and they're stars.
UNDERrated players post no one particular stat you can grab onto. That's Kotchman. He's going to be underrated. I agree with that, by the way.
Which is fine: but is Kotchman a "marginal player" who gets underrated as "terrible"? Or is he a "good" player who gets underrated as "mediocre"? Or what? "Underrated" doesn't help you if the league thinks you're a sub, but you're actually the #29 first baseman in baseball.
.............
Kotchman hit .218/.284/.287 (!!) for the Sox down the stretch, and in the Baker interview, James' tone was apologetic. He was obviously struggling not to be unfriendly.
"He's going to be 28, and it's not impossible that he could have his best season."
Well, Kotchman has had one OPS+ better than 103, and that OPS+ was 119. So if the dice land sevens, and you get a 125 OPS+, well.... that won't be too bad.
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=== The Good News ===
Dr. D will cheerfully bet the M's double-or-nothing on 6-game packs as far as Kotchman's 2010 season. :- ) But he can help them, a little bit, in the following two scenarios:
As a bridge player towards an imminent trade for a masher. Mike Carp might only be as good as Kotchman right this second, but when a $425,000 developmental player is almost as good as a dead-end vet, you put the developmental player in...
Unless, that is, neither one is long for this world.
..........
As a Raul Ibanez late bloomer. Raul was absolutely nowhere at Kotchman's age.
Still, is every 86-mph lefty the next Jamie Moyer, and is every poor 27-year-old the next Raul Ibanez? Don't place your bets that way...
Raul never had Kotchman's type of woes at the plate, the type where even when you guess right, get your pitch, you still can't do much... Raul, even before he figured it out, could hammer a topspin laser beam off the wall if he managed to guess right.
..........
As a role player. Kotchman can't hit LHP's at all -- behold that 1-for-60 line against LH breaking balls last year -- and he's not ball of fire against RHP's, either. A .350 OBP, and .410 SLG, in pitcher's parks, when you have the platoon advantage? Come on.
But there will be specific pitchers against whom Kotchman is good, and spotted 300 or so AB's against his favorite pitchers, then maybe you get a 125 OPS+ in part-time play, along with the good defense. That works.
But, of course, the M's are talking like Garko and Sweeney will be lucky to get AB's against lefties. The M's sound real high on Kotchman. Hence the 3-hole buzz this week.
............
First thing Blengino said when Ryan Garko got here: we think he's a starting caliber player; he'll be in a platoon situation "at least to start with."
If the M's are V-E-R-Y flexible about changing lineups if/when their April offense goes into vaporlock, fine :- )
Cheers,
Jeff
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