== The Case For ===
The oooooooonnnnnnne thing that Casey Kotchman does have going for him, is that he's age 28. (And, objectively, that he used to be an uber-glam prospect, but I don't count that, for reasons explained shortly. I also don't count that he's better-looking, richer, and a superior human being to me. That doesn't help him hit Scott Kazmir.)
The M's have stated, in one-syllable words so that Dr. D can understand it, that they think Kotchman can grow from here, that he can leap a plateau, that we haven't seen his best.
They stated this just again this week, when reporters passed on the rationale that "Kotchman has untapped potential." My disclaimer:
- In the abstract, this is reasonable, when you apply it generically to age-28 players.
- Of course, I acknowledge that the M's have every right to make this kind of intuitive, anti-sabermetric call on Casey Kotchman.
- I sincerely acknowledge that in principle, Zduriencik is a better man to make this kind of guess than poor li'l Dr. D. :- )
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=== SSI Sticks to Its Guns ===
As against this argument, SSI asserts that Casey Kotchman is a stiff mechanical hitter, lacking physical gifts, a la [Greg Dobbs plus 10%]. Looks very aesthetic out there. Looks aesthetic all the way up until the ball makes contact with his bat.
This has been my take on Kotchman since he was in AAA, but here's some hard data for yer, spun SSI style:
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Graham at LL found, in January, that Kotchman is okay on pitches out-and-over, but can't hit a low-in pitch to save the Irish.
I assert that this is because stiff mechanical hitters, lacking talent, cannot cover 9 sections of the plate on one pitch. Nor can they cover the front and back of the zone, which is why Kotchman cheats to catch up to fastballs and, therefore, tops a lot of pitches.
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Graham also found that Kotchman's results vs LHP were catastrophic -- for example, he saw 60 LHP breaking pitches and got one (1) hit.
This is not a guy you project to leap a plateau. It's not like he's quick and adjustable against tough pitches.
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He also found that Kotchman had a woeful .091+ ISO on all pitches right in the middle of the plate.
Kotchman gets his pitch, out-and-over ... and then he dinks it for a short single to LF. He looks FB away, gets FB away ... oh! There's a single.
Not what you're looking for from your 1B; neither is a 90 OPS+.
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Graham noticed, correctly, that pitchers are now heaping strikes into Kotchman's strike zone with snow shovels. The strike % against him is wayyyyyy up the last two years -- his bad years.
This is because, of course, pitchers realized that they have nothing to fear from Kotchman. So why walk him? Make him 2-bounce his way on base.
The hope is that Kotchman will pull a few into the seats, and then start getting walks. It's a very forlorn hope, my friends. 20 homers wouldn't change the book on Kotchman, even if he hit them. (Kotchman hit 7, count them, homers last season.)
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Part 2