Loved the fact that Liddi was ahead of that ball, but kept the hands back long enough to launch it. I have very little doubt that he's a 25+ tater guy. I also have little doubt that he's the M's 3B next year. It is possible that he starts the year in Tacoma to save a year down the line. I rather doubt it, however.
Loved the wrap around finish on Seager's homer. A 30-35 double and 10 homer SS would be quite nice, thank you. I have less doubt, all the time, that we're looking at the M's SS for next year. I really like Ryan, but what he might bring in trade to a NL team (if he's healthy) is worth pondering. Bullpen arm?
Loved Carp's moon shot. Ackley, Carp, Smoak.....the M's version of Murderer's Row? In 300 MLB PA's this year he has 30 extra-base hits. In just a few less Tacoma PA's he had 35. His game and growth has simply rolled over into the majors. It is less a leap than the next step in the progression. More walks and just as much power will be next year's step.
Mickey Mantle's 565-foot homer ... the one that gave rise to the phrase, "Tape-Measure Home Run."
.....
109 not being historically unique, exactly, but being plenty 'nuff to put his velocity into the top 10% of all home runs. Not the top 10% of batted balls; the top 10% of those perfectly-struck balls that went for four bases.
More to the point, Carp is doing this repeatedly.
Mike Carp's solo shot, on Sunday, can be seen here. Note the compact, controlled followthrough. Since returning from AAA, 50% (!) of his homers have been tape-measure shots, 420 feet or more. Well, you didn't measure today's 429-footer with a tape, but you did shriek, "How far WAS that?!"
So that's a 31 HR, 117 RBI pace for him since he returned, with half of the homers titanic, 100-foot-high type shots. Carp -- since the All-Star Break!, -- has as many no-doubt, 30-park* home runs as do David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, all season.
He's got 5 no-doubters, and only 1 "just-enough'er", out of 12 homers. An Adam Dunn ratio.
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=== PWR Tool ===
People ask whether Carp is for real, for 2012. The Branyanesque arcs of his home runs tell you, right then and there, that Carp's power is unquestionably for real. As do the 50 homers in his last 176 PCL games.
It's not like Carp is pulling a Beltre-, Lopez-style home run barrage, with fly balls just clearing the fence, and regression an easy prediction. When a hitter is launching homer after homer, the distance that Carp is launching them, the power is an integral part of his game.
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=== HIT Tool ===
Neither is Dr. D at all doubtful about Carp's contact rate for 1H 2012, because:
- Carp is comfortably balanced, controlled, and CG-aware in the box, like (say) Godzilla is
- He is hitting all kinds of pitches, up-in, outside black, FB's and change curves
- He is using the whole field
- His line-drive rate is 25.5%, which would lead the AL, except for Michael Young
- His K/BB factor is rendered unimportant by his earlier-career K/BB's
- It is visually obvious that Carp can square up all types of pitches
Here's a scatter chart for Sept. 2011. Look at all the cute little green dots out in left field:
HR/FB rate, (2) Fairly high GB rate, for a homer guy, and (3) miniscule infield popup rate.
The eye confirms: Carp is getting on top of the ball, and is rotating his bat top hand a bit as he does so.
People keep asking if Carp is real. There is no more reason to doubt that, than there is any reason to doubt whether Michael Pineda is. Mike Carp is a legit MLB(TM) ribbie man who is tailor-made for Safeco. Move on.
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=== Re-Furbish, Dept. ===
Not many LHP's have 7-strikeout stuff, but also not many LHP's have a delivery with as many elbows and knees as Leviathan.
Sunday, Furbush again reminded us of the problems: a raw motion, an inconsistent release point, and a too-high error rate.
It's fine to walk so few people, but if you're pulling the tiger's whiskers you're going to get nibbled for 12 runs, brother.
Between Charlie Furbush and an 0.9 homer rate there is a long, LONG distance. It takes a lot to adapt your game so that still contains the sweet strikeouts, but does not contain the gross little raisins that McDonald's sticks in their oatmeal.
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=== Alex Liddi ===
Stayed back on yet another breaking ball and overpowered it to left-center. The pitcher didn't supply any of the power, and didn't need to.
Liddi is now slugging .531 since joining the M's, which you don't declare victory after 12 games, but ... I can think of some Mariners bushers who didn't, can't you? Who didn't slug .531 in their first two weeks, that is.
Once again, Liddi at 3B and Seager at SS. The M's lineup featured 9 players, fairly usual for them, and those 9 guys were 9 home run hitters, all except Ichiro, that is. (Give Gimenez a pass, since Olivo's the C.)
SSI finds it bemusing, and in a good way, that the M's lineup consisted of a long string of guys pushed rightward on the defensive spectrum. You had Seager at SS, making way for Liddi. You had Dustin Ackley, a guy moved from 1B to 2B. You had Mike Carp in left, you had Smoak playing his tougher slot in the DH/1B dilemma. Trayvon played CF. And Large Human Wily Mo at DH.
Great to have Seager pushed to SS in the same game that Carp was pushed to LF.
Every Mariner had a hit, except Wily Mo, who isn't a Mariner. And half, 50%, of the non-Wily Mo's homered in this one single game.
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Be Afraid,
Dr D
Comments
His mechanics are DISGUSTING. I can'ty stand to watch him start. He needs to be that funky, hard-to-triangulate sneaky LOOGY the Mariner pen has needed for a long time. GS54 was no great shakes mechanically...though not as bad as Furbush...but the funky delivery screams either AAA retooling or big league LOOGY to me.
The way I see it he'll play 50 to 60 games at 3rd base, 40 at short stop and 20 at 2nd base. Brendan Ryan needs rest (don't we all) and 120 games sounds about right. Unless Liddi tears it up I don't see him playing full time just because you do have Seager who can platoon. And Ackley is still in need of strength to play 155 games a year.
It's a great situation for the M's and is keyed due to Seager batting lefthanded.
I would love to see Jack spend his chips on a catcher like Grandal from Cincy.
This should be a fun offseason. We'll finally get to see what Jackie Z's intent for this team will be. It appears that he's willing to go bat first in the infield but still wants strong defensive players in the outfield. The key will be where the M's see Carp next year. My guess is DH, if they don't sign Fielder, with starts at first since Smoak isn't the most durable player and will also need rest.
A Bedard type of starting pitcher and a quality veteran left fielder (if they fancy themselves as a legitmate contender) and the M's should have a fun, competitive team.
Next up from Carp's 26.3 K% is lifetime-30%-whiffer Wily Mo Pena at 27.0%
then free swinger Olivo at 27.7 K%
then often clueless and struggling Michael Saunders at 30.2 K%
then reject-pile denizens Cust and Langerhans at 32.2 and 34.4 K%
then the already-deemed-too-whifftastic C.Peguero and Halman at 34.8 and 35.2
then Casper Wells at 36.2%
then Trayvon Robinson at 38.5%
and finally Liddi at 42.9%
I'm not against the last three, but, to me, the key to getting on track in 2012 is getting Smoak healthy and confident.
I want to see Ackley-Carp-Smoak clicking simultaneously. Then anything from Liddi, Wells and Robinson would be "gravy."
What makes me over confident about Carp is that 25,5% line drive rate. You can make a point for many of those complicated sabr stats but when you hit line drives all the time - plus some moonshots to all fields - you can't really doubt.
That would be, if nothing else, exciting.
That's how many kids at how many spots? Where do the M's spend money?
I read something like that on the internet once. :- )
Good to see that the cross-check lines up with the first report, though ...
Hey Matty, when is the last time that an U-25 player got 5.5 runs per 27 outs off the bench, 400 AB's?
And where did the guy's career go?
....
Check me if I'm wrong ... 5-, 6-runs per game players (granting Merks' scenario) weren't backed up onto the M's bench the last coupla years.
As the announcers say in the EPL. :- )
Loved Carp's moon shot. Ackley, Carp, Smoak.....the M's version of Murderer's Row?
What you gotta love, about these 3 core hitters, is that they are every one of them left hand hitters.
Ackley's 3-iron swing shape, Carp's moderate topspin, and Smoak's 160 mph thunder swing with BB's attached, each one of those players is Safeco from the word Go.
Woulda been nice for one or two of your core hitters to be Safeco-tailored, but the M's went 3-for-3. Looking forward to the LH hurt.
I can think of a free agent who's extremely Bedard type, can't you?
Finished the year with 8.5 K's, 3.0 BB's, 0.9 HR's, and once again top-15 in the AL in FIP and xFIP.
Everybody keeps angling for that one big postseason run he could give you -- 20-25 starts in the reg season followed by 6 in the postseason -- and somebody's going to get it.
......
Should come cheap again, too. Boston's going to mess around and blow the playoff appearance, and then he won't even have the showcase October to peddle.
For 1H 2012, you're not going to be able to *accumulate* high-strikeout players in the starting 9.
Gotta run with that, man. That point has traction.
It has to be a one-year deal...but we have the money and we could use SP insurance given how young our staff is, yet again. I know he's risky, by because we have so mcuh young SP depth now, he's not as risky as he would be ot most teams...plus...we know he likes the Mariners and has a good rapport with Z and our training staff.
Heck...he might even take 5 mil with incentives up to 12 mil based on innings. You never know.
Rich Harden might be a nice gamble. Seems hes back, gopheritis and all.
Both are high risk, high reward, but I'm guessing Harden would come cheaper with his ERA in the 5s.
How would this look as your starting 9 in 2012:
(last column is my off the top of my head projected HR)
Ichiro (rf) -- LH -- 5
Ackley (2b) -- LH -- 15
FIELDER dh/1b) -- LH -- 40
Carp (lf) -- LH -- 25
Smoak (1b/dh) -- SW -- 25
Seager (ss) -- LH -- 10
Trayvon / Wells (cf) -- RH -- 20
Liddi (3b) -- RH -- 20
Olivo (c) -- RH -- 15
First of all thats a LOT of left handed sweetness right there. How would you like to be a RH starter staring down that barrell? I tried to guess a MID level projection on HR, maybe a little high here or a little low there but reasonalble. That is a total of 175 homers, when was the last time the M's even smelled 150??? This is why we need Fielder SOOO bad, he turns an interesting young lineup, relying on things to break right and eveyone to have an up year together into a murderers row that is scary and allows for some nice suprises (from a guy like Liddi or Seager or Wells or Trayvon), but doesn't require it. Specs K%'s below are very instructive and forwboding, but would feel so much better of betting on those K%s was a luxury, a hope for the multiplier after already hitting the jackpot, not a draw at the deck for an average offense!
As an aside, from what I have seen so far I think that Liddi could club 30 HR a year no problem, the real question is if he can keep his BA high enough (and K's low enough) to get the oppurtunity, but even next year he could be a Cust like two true outcomes hitter, but with ks and HR not ks and BB :) Plus I have been very impressed with his D. The dude is a nfl DE and yet he moves better than our future SS (Seager) at 3rd! And as Blowers pointed out the last few night he has very quickand very soft hands (probably a good thing for his bat too!)
Just for grins (or probably more like tears) here are the HR totals for the Mariner Starters for the last decade or so (bench number in parenthesis)
2011 68 (41)
2010 69 (32)
2009 120 (40)
2008 106 (18)
2007 137 (16)
2006 154 (18)
2005 115 (15)
2004 95 (41)
2003 124 (15)
2002 122 (30)
2001 151 (18)
Lots of young guys in and out the last few years so the bench numbers are a little inflated and starters low. But holy Cow looking at this list 175 homers from the starters would be like some sort of miricle or something! In fact so much so that now I am feeling less comfortable with my projections... So you guys tell me where I have totally blown the HR projections, because 175 can't be sane can it???
In Sept.
5 GS, 31.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
0.3 HR/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.7 K/9
It's Jason Vargas with "the twist." I think he'll be cheaper than any FA, and if the the twist makes him a 7-K/9 lefty, then he's probably just as good.
Looked REALLY good last night. I am loving the twist. And right now if feels like he is in a little bit of spring training mode. More experimenting with his new twist, throwing tons of fastaballs to see what he can do with it. Hopefully when he gets back to throwing more offspeed as well as mixing in the new and improved twist FB he will get even better!
And the twist version is really good. Vargas has 2 club-controlled years left, so he'll almost certainly be more affordable than most of the FA options. He's gonna make about 4 mil in arb next year - we can afford that.
The rotation will be interesting next year for sure. Does Furbush stay in it? His stuff is occasionally nasty and he has the stamina to be a starter, but his motion is very Bugs Bunny. He leaves the ball over the plate too much, but when he's on it doesn't matter. It's his off nights that lead to taters and poundings.
Will that be better in the pen? He's always gotten hit quite a bit for a guy with his level of strikeouts. If for some reason we did decide to bring Bedard back we could do worse than having Furbush as his 6th inning tag-team partner, but we'll need to find a role for Charlie and then keep him in it.
How about Beavan? He keeps pitching, keeps not striking anyone out... and keeps surviving. But how do you put a 3.7 K/9 arm in your rotation for 180 innings? Tony Vasquez can't start for you, but what about Erasmo Ramirez or Andy Carraway? What's going on with Paxton and Hultzen, and what timeframe can we expect on them?
The two pitchers we know are gonna be in the rotation in 2012 are Felix and Pineda. Assuming health, they're locked in.
The rest of the spots are up in the air. I'd take Vargas as a 3rd, Paxton as a 4th and then let Beavan, Furbush, Erasmo, Carraway et al fight it out for the 5th spot.
If Furbush loses, then a permanent pen job isn't the worst thing for him. We badly need a lefty reliever, but he has to be more consistent. More effective would be nice too.
Right now, just based on the arms on this team, it looks like Felix / Pineda / Paxton / Vargas / Beavan in the rotation, with Beavan just holding a place for a 2013 splashdown by Hultzen if he can't get his Ks up. Do you trust that rotation?
The pen would be Furbush, Ruffin, Lueke, Wilhelmsen, League and maybe another lefty (Moran?) if Kelley isn't making another go at staying healthy. Are you confident in that?
And if you answered no for either - or both - then how do you fix it? Knowing that Erasmo and Andy are hanging around aiming at the Beavan spot and Hultzen is a future ace who should make a fast ascent, what kind of contract would you want on a pitcher from outside the org? It'd have to be short, right? Which normally means injury concerns.
Don't forget, 10K-per-9, mid-90s lefty Robles is still in this as a dark horse if he ever gets healthy, even though I think he's gonna wind up bullpenned, and we have a TON of other bullpen arms climbing the ranks in the next year or two as well as several more good starting pitching options.
I take Vargas as my 1-to-2 year stopgap and see what happens, but that means we're relying a whole bunch on extraordinarily raw pitchers and rookie bullpenners to give up under 700 runs again, since our whole division does that rather easily, while hoping for significant offensive improvement.
Waiting on the kids is hard. Here's hoping Paxton and Hultzen are well worth the potential growing pains that might continue well into 2012. I would understand if we wanted to go with a 2-year Bedard deal and carry another long-reliever to make it easier for Paxton and Bedard. Both are only likely to go 5ish innings for a while, and neither will reach 180 IP either.
It just robs from our potential offensive improvement (which has only been ~50 runs better than last year's abomination) . We certainly have choices to make.
~G