I am a late buy-in to Mike Carp, but suddenly I'm psyched about Ackley-Carp-Smoak going all Edgar-Olerud-Boone on us.
Dr. D Kibitz Dept:
Who was it, BP, who commented "once Ackley's up, the M's will have five mainstays under the age of 25: Smoak, Ackley, Carp, Peguero and Halman," or something very similar...
It's a reach to include Peguero and Halman *together* but WOW the way that Mike Carp has looked in the box, I am definitely thinking in terms of him as the third impact rookie... that dude is playing fulltime for me, the rest of 2011, for sure...
Swap out Cust already and let these kids get to hacking...
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True, Peguero and Halman aren't EYE specialists, but what team has 9 different cookie-cutters of the same hitter... Kinsler walks but the Rangers don't mind having a Nelson Cruz in there too...
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Your broad point is that Carp, this time around, is NOT to be under-estimated... I couldn't agree more...
Other broad point, that a .280/.340/.480 season from Carp would anesthetize the sting left by missing out on Rendon... absolutely ... Looks like a good 30-50% chance here of grabbing a 3rd young banger to go with Smoak and Ackley...
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Comparing Rendon to Carp directly, my $0.02 is that they are such different hitters that it's a little like comparing Fister to Bedard...
Carp can recognize a pitch but Anthony Rendon, like Ackley, has always shown the 99th-percentile strike zone domination ...
Carp also lacks the Lou Piniella "thoroughbred" extra-class giftedness...
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But now if you axed me how Mike Carp could pleasantly surprise and provide the kind of production we'd want from a Tino Martinez or Hideki Matsui, well ... :- )
Would a young Tino Martinez salve the wounds you took from missing out on the early EDGAR Martinez? Well, if Tino delivered and Edgar was still a coin flip, the bird in the hand is always worth more than two in the bush...
Or not...
- Spectator
So, hopefully the M's 1,000 straight days in first coincide with the Ackley Era ....
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Yes, LrKrBoi29, we're all well aware of the Ackley downside scenarios. And the M's offense remains absolute bottom of the AL.
It's just that the M's are Stars & Scrubs fungible .... and they have a funge-happy GM ... and they have live, hi-frag ammo they are jamming into the tubes.
It is a whale of a lot of fun to watch a fluid, dynamic roster that is on the upswing.
If Ackley and Carp give you two more consistent XBH + BB guys, then you probably can afford to have a random-moon-shot guy in the lineup, too. And we have two candidates for the job -- or they can share it.
Yeah, Carp has less chance to be special than Rendon, but may end up being as productive. I wouldn't trade Rendon for Carp in a mythical world in which it were possible, but Carp is making it more interesting than expected.
And, actually there are seven guys on the roster 25-and-under: Felix, Pineda, Smoak, Ackley, Carp, Peguero and Halman. (Felix was 25 in April, Carp is 25 in a couple of weeks.) And Saunders and Cortes have been up, if you still want to count them.
But he really is.
Felix is on track for a real all-time career.
18 - # of pitchers with 78 or more wins through Age 25, last 50 years (which Felix is not through yet, with 3 and a half months to go in the season).
The names on that list:
Roger Clemens, Vida Blue, CC Sabathia, Larry Dierker, Catfish Hunter, Joe Coleman, Tony Cloninger, Denny McLain, Dan Petry, Don Gullett, Frank Tanana, Jim Palmer, Dwight Gooden, Burt Blyleven, Fernando Valenzuela, Brett Saberhagen, Dennis Eckersley.
3 - # of those pitchers with more strikeouts
2 - number of those pitchers with a better ERA+ than Felix
If you assume 8 more wins this year for Felix to get him to 85, his company drops to 10 men. Ten guys in 50 years who have started with just his wins through their age 25 seasons, and wins are perhaps the poorest measure of The King's greatness.
By Ks? There are 4 men in 50 years who have bettered Felix through age 25. Burt Blyleven, Dwight Gooden, Sam McDowell, Fernando Valenzuela.
That's it. There are only 10 guys within 200 Ks behind Felix, and he's got half a season to go in putting more distance there.
But you know what's fun? Run it back to the start of the AL. Since the AL started in 1901, ALL TIME, Felix is the 9th best strikeout pitcher pre-age-26, and he'll probably jump 3 spots by the end of the year.
In all those years of baseball, 6 men will have had better phenom starts as strikeout pitchers than our Felix.
He's frighteningly good, and he just keeps getting better. His career will continue to be something to behold - if we're very very lucky.
~G
Carp was a prospect I was extremely high on coming out of the Mets system. At 22 in AAA he had produced a great line (.300/.400/.470 with a .9 EYE) and a decent chunk of power with a projectable frame. I really liked getting him in the package, and was looking forward to his time in Tacoma.
Problem was, he didn't step forward in AAA. Now, he didn't really step back a ton - his power stayed the same in a bigger park, his average dipped, and his walks dropped, but he was within shouting distance of being the same player. It's just that those dips took him from "on the verge of something special" to "on the verge of being nothing special at all."
But nevermind, I figured the NEXT year would bring out the best in him, and he'd still just be 24. Then his average dropped again, his walks dropped again...and his HR power increased while his doubles fell. He swung more for the fences but only got 6 more XBHs in return for his deficiencies in other areas.
The question was whether that was a learning stage or a move of desperation.
So what does this year tell us? Doubles power came back, HR power went up even higher...walks are still lowish but his eye is basically the same as it's been the last 2 years. His average is through the roof.
That's the biggest difference. Yes, the HR power is great, but which is his "true" AAA batting average, 2010 or 2011?
Interestingly, last year's BABIP was .259. His career minor league BABIP is .337, which is about right for the minors (there's a higher average BABIP than in the bigs because the fielders are worse there). This year he's a bit high at .366, but he's still closer to league-average this year than he was last year. He really IS crushing the ball around the park.
And he reminds me a bit of Brad Hawpe. Brad had a phenomenal year at 23 in the Cal League with a great eye, then crashed a bit a year later in AA. He recovered to excellence in AAA, but Sky Sox stadium is really kind to hitters, being at altitude and all.
Still, he took his game to the bigs for a cup of coffee at 25, half a season at 26, and then four full seasons before crashing out and tumbling down the cliff of ineffectiveness. He still provided a ton of offensive help on the cheap for several years.
Carp is the same age, with a less-spectacular minor league situation. But the kid looks like he's figured out his game at the plate, and now is his chance to prove it.
I believe Peguero will have moments of "amazing" and an early career of "eh". Halman looks like breaking his hand was the best thing to happen to him since someone handed him a bat, but I don't trust him yet.
But Carp? Carp is about as ready-to-go as we're gonna get from any of our 2nd-tier guys, and I'd like to see him get the chance to prove he belongs in the lineup. Carp for LF/DH as we go forward.
Ditching Cust is the issue. He was almost hitting in May.
April: .193/.350/.229, .302 BABIP
May: .276/.375/.447, .408 BABIP
June: .088/.344/.217, .067 BABIP
Do you believe May is somewhat legit, despite the .408 BABIP, and that his 8 June games are artificially low with that BABIP that means more hits and more power hits should have fallen?
Or do you see the 2 HRs and 19 RBI from your supposed power-hitting RBI man and think that even a rookie like Carp can do better in that department? Especially in the runs scored dept (where Jack and his .359 OBP have only contributed 16 runs)?
Carp needs games. Several in a row and many in a week. We need to see him, and we already know what Cust is giving us at the plate.
Now it's just a matter of making the switch and letting Carp show us if he can do better.
~G
I hope one of Carp, Halman, and Peguero can stick as part of the LF solution.. I may actually be highest on Halman if he can continue to K under 30%. Carp has a shot at being a platoon bat if he can control the Ks and start hitting for power, but the D probably means he needs to hit pretty well to stick. Not very high on Peguero, but hes outperformed my expections so far.
Am I the only guy a bit puzzled why LRod went down rather that Cust being dropped? Carp, Kennedy, Peguero and Halman are all more interesting DH's that Cust. A LRod is infinitely more versatile that DH-only Cust.
A trade on the horizon? Perhaps....
Does Cust have a trade value?
And it appears that Halman's bat is worth something more than Guti's right now (although a 0 BB and 6 K line, in 23 PA's for Halman is a bit disconcerting). Does Guti save more runs with the glove than Halman might provide with the lumber? Guti's a #6 or #7 (or 8) bat. In his 2009 "breakout season" he still had only 452 x-base hits. Halman has a bigger upside than that.
Halman, Peguero, Cust, Guti.....There's every chance that you have two long-term productive OF'ers in that group. If so...add that to a Smoak and Ackley duo...and you have a heck of a 6-7 year core.
He's got a shot to pull a Jose Bautista at some point and just go ridonkulous on the league - and could probably be playing CF when he does so. But the man still won't walk. Still, pulling off an Alfonso Soriano career would be a great upside shot too. How long the odds are is the question.
It's just very interesting to have three draws at some sort of power hitter all around the same age and experience, competing for playing time atb basically the same positions. We're gonna have to move somebody. I believe this is Halman's last option year, and Carp's, and I think Peguero has one more.
They can't all stay.
~G
LRod will accept the 4-6 week vacation and then come back as a permanent part of the squad...
Much more irrevocable decision to flush Cust... not that I wouldn't...
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Tempting to call Halman the choice over Guti, but these points about Guti's BABIP are very well taken...
With luck, we get a true Earl OF rotation going...
I've been dreaming on him since 2007. It really is a shame that he broke his...hand? I think it was. His statcorner page shows huge improvement over last year, but his time in the minors is a meager 41 plate appearances with another 21 so far in the majors. So far his swinging strikeouts are way down (only 12.2% at Tacoma compared to 29.9% the year before). I kind of wonder if he sat at home all winter watching video of balls coming out of the pitchers hand to pick up breaking/non-breaking pitches.
Alfonso is and has always been famous for being a terrible glove man, Halman can at least hold his own in Center and is probably plusplus in left
I think he likes Jack Wilson as his reserve infielder and I think he likes Jack Cust as his extra bat. I foresee:
Guti-Carp-Halman-Peguero-Cust as 5-to-make-3 at CF/LF/DH
Ackley-Kennedy-Figgins-Wilson as 4-to-make-2.1 at 2b/3b/backupSS
He doesn't like playing rookies every day and he's said so -- and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept this roster indefinitely. LRod was done in by bad BABIP, but he also just landed on a roster with too many infielders.
I think one of the items that makes the 2011 season so remarkable (and at times confusing) is that there are a vast number of variables that go into good decision making. Production, options, contract, psychology, roster makeup, trade possibilities, risk, etc., etc., etc. all are considerations. But, people tend to want to boil things down to a single "why" a decision is made (or not).
For me, the 2011 season is wonderful because of the 'apparent' chaos in some of the decisions. Bradley and Langerhans DFAed pretty quick, (despite decent numbers on the year). Peguero and Mike Wilson getting the call first and then Peguero and Halman getting the call before Ackley. I view this as an organization that is maturing - and not making the 'simple' or 'obvious' choice based solely on reputation or the production of the last week.
If I had to guess (and I have to guess), I'd say 'part' of the reason Peguero and Wilson and Halman beat Ackley to the roster is that each was a "lower risk" call-up. Ackley is 'intended' to be an integral part of the club for many years. He's the guy you least want to 'damage' by promoting too quickly. I also like the dynamic of the 'bonus baby' not getting the 'free pass' to the majors. Mike Wilson got his cup of coffee ... and that's the kind of thing that can help the development process in lots of subtle ways, even if Wilson couldn't hit his weight during his cameo.
For me, to be a great "organization", you have to understand that the 'best move' to help the MLB club win 'this week' is not always the 'best move' to help the club for the next 10 years.
I'm loving watching Peguero's K/BB drop from 8:1 to 5:1 ... and if it drops to 4:1 or lower, then he starts looking like a potential long term option and not just a flash-in-the-pan.
I'm loving the fact that the screams for Ackley's immediate call up were not heeded ... and the fact that even without Ackley this club continues to compete. As Matt notes ... if some of the slumber-lumber awakens, even a little, then the offensive dynamic of the team going forward gets veeeerrrry interesting.
I was among those who wanted Ackley in May (and I still don't see how calling him up a bit earlier would have hurt his development...I think he was ready a month ago and hasn't changed at all in the time between then and now...but I do understand that this will make him cheaper in years 4-5-6-7).
What IS cool about all of this roster turn-over is that production keeps buying playing time. You produce, you get more looks...you don't, you slowly drop back in the line-up or in total playing time. What is ALSO cool is that the Mariners...minus their savior call-up (Ackley) proved to themselves that they could win games and compete. And all of the guys who will be backing Ackley up believe they can help. Even the formerly deeply depressed Jack Wilson seems to be feeling a bit better lately about being a part-time player. Even Chone Figgins seems to be coping with hitting low in the order and maybe losing some PT to Kennedy. Maybe delaying Ackley's arrival was done to avoid the team looking to him as their offensive savior. Instead we have a LOT of interesting new faces. And Ichiro is already hitting again, as is Figgins...so maybe now we don't look at Ackley as the guy bailing out the veterans. He's just another kid trying to make it and help the club.
As for the offense getting very interesting...I think we're there. I think even if they don't score enough to win the division, they are scoring enough to keep me coming back for games and to keep me hopeful. And the talent they're actually developing offensively is interesting enough and has enough potential that it's worth giving them playing time.
An example...the book got out on Peguero very quickly...he can hit the low ball and the pitch away, but jam him and he won't do any harm. But he's ADJUSTING! I've seen him get around on jam pitches a fwe times lately and rip them foul. I've also seen him use his strength to muscle some balls off the trademark of his bat into right field for singles. This is why the Ks are down a bit lately. So maybe he'll always be weaker inside...but maybe he'll hit juuuust enough on those pitches to stay alive...and maybe that's all he needs to do.
Halman is developing too...he's driving the ball the opposite way for the first time in his whole career...letting the ball get deep on him (this is why the Ks are way down). Smoak's development is well documented and is still ongoing.
I could well envision this club scoring 4-4.5 R/G the rest of the way and winning the WS...right now! It just is going to take a lot of internal growth and a few well-placed moves to get veteran relief pitchers in here.
Plan A was Jack Wilson-to-2b, then flip him to another team upon Ackley Day, with Kennedy as just a vet-utility afterthought.
Once they realized that Kennedy was going to be a solid bat (and one of the few), and Wilson's transition to 2b would not be seamless, they switched to Plan B to play mostly Kennedy at 2b. Plan B was good for the short term, but posed an Ackley Day problem -- the only place to move AK is to 3b, and that would require some Chone Diplomacy. Apparently the ambassadors to the Court of Chone have successfully smoothed over the potential loss of face, and Ackley Day can arrive without incident.
If the "diplomatic complications" happened to coincide with the financial interests of the organization, then so be it.