1
In some ways this was even more brilliant than the Putz trade. Z got something for nothing.
Capt Jack: July 2009, Cortes plus for Betancourt
.
TABLE OF CONTENTS: We're working our way through the list from Z's earliest trades, to his most recent trades.
If you want gushing, or if you just want to start in chrono order, scroll back and start at the bottom of the front page with the Gutierrez and then Aardsma reviews. :- )
With this post, we've so far time-traveled up to mid-2009.
... Jeff
.
=== Yuniesky Betancourt for Daniel Cortes, plus ===
Leading this one off with Adam P. Boyd's analysis:
Trade 5: July 10, 2009
Seattle Mariners Receive: RP Derrick Saito and P Daniel Cortes
Kansas City Royals Receive: SS Yuniesky Betancourt (-.8 WAR)
Zduriencik managed to wring something out of nothing when he traded Betancourt, an offensive and
defensive liability, for Saito and Cortes. Betancourt has been mildly useful for the Royals this season thanks to his power, but his UZR the past two seasons has been all of -26.5.Saito missed almost all of 2010 thanks to injury. Cortes came over as a starting pitcher, but his lack of command stalled his development in Double-A. A switch to the bullpen has fast-tracked Cortes to the big leagues; his fastball has
been clocked in the upper-90s and his curveball has been devastatingly effective. The 6-foot-6, 250-pound 23-year-old could land in the Top 10 of Prospect Insider's prospect rankings this winter and could follow that by making the team out of spring training. Getting a back-of-the-bullpen arm for Betancourt can be called nothing other than a good trade, even if Saito stalls as an organizational player.Result: Win
Recall that this trade was about subtracting Betancourt.
Yuniesky had been a constant thorn in Wakamatsu's craw. Wok (and Zduriencik) were establishing a new culture of accountability -- come back after the game, after an at-bat even, and explain your approach.
Chuck Knox used to say, "On Sunday, everybody has the will to win. We talk about Wednesday, the will to prepare to win."
Betancourt, despite much patience and tolerance, simply didn't have the will to prepare to win. So the Mariners, correctly, powerflushed him in Whitey Herzog style.
...........
That the Mariners could get anything for Betancourt defied logic. That they would get the Royals' #1 minor league pitcher was a miracle.
Now, Cortes has hit the ML beach and early on, it looks like he is going to pan out. The trade does not have the scope of the Gutierrez trade, but in its own way, it's even more miraculous. It's one thing to turn 5 loaves into 100.* It's another thing to make salamanders generate spontaneously in a sealed test tube...
..............
SSI constant preaches the "invisible" stoploss concept. GM's do have to make sure that they don't get stuck with, um, Ronny Cedeno or Jack Hannahan at shortstop.
The Royals' desire to grab a "stoploss" at short is fine, in the abstract. And the Royals' obvious conviction that the Mariners foul up their players is fine, in the abstract.
But Yuniesky Betancourt doesn't want to win. He's a -15 runs shortstop, if not more, and he's got a good steady OBP of .280. He's got a 10-cent head and you're simply better off with a young player, if you're the Royals.
The Royals met with screeching outrage, the very day of the trade. WHY DIDN'T YOU PICK HIM UP AFTER HE WAS DFA'ED YOU BLITHERING IDIOTS was the gist of the analysis.
The Royals responded -- believe this -- that Betancourt was coveted around baseball. What do you infer, from this, about Jack Zduriencik's social skills?
...............
SSI is high on Daniel Cortes. Here's our 5-part article as exactly to why that is. The Mariners are obviously very high too; he was the guy promoted and thrown into the fire, and three games on, he's the backup closer...
Derrick Saito too! I dunno who he is. You'll have to ask J or G.
...............
EXEC SUM FIRST 5 TRADES:
With the Gutierrez miracle, Capt Jack demonstrated both scouting ability and coherent vision.
With the Aardsma virtuoso-stroke, he demonstrated tools scouting that was way beyond the curve.
With the Cedeno howler, Z demonstrated that he was more about tools than saber - and that he can blunder.
With the Langerhans move, our GM demonstrated iron-willed negotiating technique.
And with the Cortes trade, Capt Jack demonstrated his ability to sell snow to Eskimoes. B'lee Dat.
Comments
2
As you know, in Roto there are lots of ways to pull something over in a 5-for-3.
Giving away one Yuniesky Betancourt and getting an exciting commodity back? Who does that?
3
is a LH Shiggy Hasegawa with a mid-90s FB/curve/change/cutter who gets hit too much for the stuff he has but struck out 9 per with a 2.5 K/BB. He was out injured all year but rehabbed in AZ and should be back in A-Ball next year as a 23 year old.
I expect his repertoire to drop and for him to be another shot at a LOOGY, but he was alway an add for 2012+, the injury just delayed him a year. Hopefully he comes back healthy and able to succeed, but even if he doesn't I like the trade. If he DOES...bravo. We've had a lot of trouble locating a lefty killer.
Cortes, though, needs to never start again. Just leave him in the pen and let him mow down uncertain batters a la Nellie, who was wild as all getout but still managed to have a great career. Making the batters a little nervous can be an excellent pitching technique when you throw that hard and have a good breaking pitch.
If we need to also add someone who can find the zone more consistently, there's always Lueke. ;-)
~G
4
You're on a hot roll padna.
................
Saturday night, GameDay had Cortes throwing what, 25-30 fastballs, which again *averaged* over 97 mph.
Looks like he's going to be in the top 5 in baseball for FB velo.
5
I get Royals games on my basic cable out here in my time zone, thought I don't watch a bunch unless they're playing the Ms.
At least based on the announcers, they love Yuni. They love having 30-ish doubles and double-digit bombs from their shortstop. And that was pretty much his track record when he went on the market, though he jacked it up to 16 HR this year. There probably were other teams with that way of thinking, too.
6
... and let's say they don't buy in to the UZR, then you could see room for an opinion that Betancourt is more towards the middle-of-the-pack, and with some pop.
7
Or if you don't buy into defense.
I'm comfortable with evaluating Betancourt as a negative asset at that salary.
8
...that Betancourt can hit 16 HR and 30 2B still have an OPS under .700. I know his HR spike has to be superficially attractive - do you think we can interest them in giving up something for Lopez?
I can promise an increase in Lopez's HR rate in KC...
Betancourt's absence from our team makes me feel good even with Wilson's struggles. Yes, we need a stopgap SS until our system can provide a long-term quality replacement, but Betancourt would not have been that for us.
And Cortes should save us a couple mil on a bullpen reliever next year, so that helps too.
~G
9
I agree it was a solid trade.
I agree that Yuni is a bottom half SS.
I agree that Cortes is a nice prospect.
But, I think there is a lot of chicken counting in regard to Cortes ultimate value. He *MIGHT* turn into a solid reliever. But, this optimism is based on what -- watching some video this year where his delivery goes Jeckyl/Hyde and back during the same batter and ... 12 innings in AAA?!?
THIS YEAR - in West Tenn, his final tally was: 9.1-K/9 and 5.7-BB/9;
Okay - who are the valuable relievers with the 5.7 walk rates? I need some comps here, 'cause I can't find 'em.
Aardsma has largely worked out with similar numbers. But Aardsma was doing those numbers in the majors. In AAA, Aardsma had 9.5 Ks and only 4.0 walks.
You compare complete minors lines:
Aardsma: 8.7-K; 4.1-BB; 0.6-HR in 244-IP;
Cortes: 8.3-K; 4.3-BB; 0.6-HR in 652-IP;
Same ballpark - except Aardsma fanned more and walked less - and Aardsma ADDED a walk per inning after he made the bigs for several YEARS until he reached Seattle.
Not suggesting Cortes will fail. I'm just saying - even if Cortes washes out - it was STILL a good trade, because it gave the club a CHANCE at getting something special in exchange for something very not.
10
Agreed. It's a risk you take, because what you lose has no real value to your team anyway. I'm glad the Royals feels Yuni has value to them, but as a lazy malcontent with zero walks and power for us who turned from a plus defender into barf-in-a-garbage-can on the field, he was done here.
If what we could get from him is potentially a top-flight power reliever (with a secondary look at adding a left-handed pen arm), I'll take it. It gives me two shots to make one bullpenner, and if the guy who throws 98 works out it's an even better bonus.
BTW, the guy you're thinking of w/r/t performance is Matt Thornton.
Thornton in AAA: 8K, 6.8 BB per 9.
Thornton for the Ms: 8.7K. 6.7 BB per.
Thornton for the ChiSox: 10.1K, 3.1 BB per. The Sox crowed that they had one thing they wanted him to do that would instantly take his control ratios into positive territory. He did it for them from day one. I don't expect Cortes to be a one-tweak fix, but I think he can do fine even with herky-jerky mechanics with proper instruction and repetition.
Cortes still has hills to climb. If and when his control deserts him, how will he take it? Can he get anything like decently repeatable mechanics working for him? Can he improve his Ks AND drop his walks?
But it's doable. He's got the cannon - aiming it is the next challenge, but at least we're deploying him where we should: from the pen.
And I like his upside far more than Yuni's, even if he doesn't reach it. Cortes has already redeemed his trade worth as a closer-of-the-future, far more than what we traded him for.
~G